ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

20:28 Mexican Peso rallies on growing Fed rate cut speculation
The Mexican Peso skyrocketed against the US Dollar on Wednesday after data from the United States (US) fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates more aggressively than expected.

20:03 Canadian Dollar bolstered by US data miss
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gave a shaky performance on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Canadian Dollar climbs a third of a percent against Greenback after sour data patch.Canada economic data remains thin until Friday’s labor figures.US data broadly softens, propping up rate cut hopes.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gave a shaky performance on Wednesday. The Loonie was mixed against a basket of major currencies but notably climbed one-third of one percent against the US Dollar (USD) after a raft of data misses from the US. Broad-market rate cut hopes are stepping higher after a sharp drag on US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity figures, and rate markets are pricing in over 70% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Canada saw little impact from low-tier trade balance figures on Wednesday. Imports and Exports both declined slightly, leading to a sharper-than-expected contraction in May’s International Merchandise Trade tally. Thursday will bring a notable lull to the action with US markets set to be shuttered for the US Independence Day holiday. Friday will open the floodgates with a fully-stocked US session for the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor data dump. Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar performance saved by stumbling Greenback US ADP Employment Change figures gave their lowest print since January, showing 150K net jobs added in June, below the forecast for 160K and falling back from the previous 157K (revised up from 152K). US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 28 also rose faster than expected, coming in at 238K compared to the forecast of 235K and previous 233K. The figure lifted the four-week average to 238.5K from the revised previous figure of 236.25K. June’s US ISM PMI activity survey revealed a steepening slowdown in business activity. The survey index dropped sharply to 48.8, the lowest print since June of 2020. ISM Services Prices Paid in June declined to 56.3 from 58.1 as industry-level inflation eases. Canada’s International Merchandise Trade contracted in May, printing at $-1.93 billion versus the expected recovery to $-1.2 billion from the previous $-1.32 billion (revised down from $-1.05 billion). Overall trade activity is slowing in Canada, with May Exports and Imports both declining slightly. Exports fell to $62.45 billion from $64.11 billion, while Imports slid to $64.37 billion from the previous $65.43 billion. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in 72% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim from the Fed on September 18. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.47% -0.54% 0.05% -0.35% -0.70% -0.57% -0.37% EUR 0.47% -0.07% 0.52% 0.12% -0.24% -0.07% 0.10% GBP 0.54% 0.07% 0.60% 0.18% -0.17% -0.00% 0.19% JPY -0.05% -0.52% -0.60% -0.42% -0.76% -0.62% -0.41% CAD 0.35% -0.12% -0.18% 0.42% -0.35% -0.20% -0.00% AUD 0.70% 0.24% 0.17% 0.76% 0.35% 0.16% 0.34% NZD 0.57% 0.07% 0.00% 0.62% 0.20% -0.16% 0.20% CHF 0.37% -0.10% -0.19% 0.41% 0.00% -0.34% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote). Technical analysis: Wednesday’s Greenback declines a welcome reprieve for CAD bulls Despite a soft-to-mixed performance, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) found higher ground against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen (JPY), climbing around one-third of one percent against each. The CAD shed weight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Pound Sterling (GBP), declining one-third of one percent and one-fifth of one percent, respectively. USD/CAD volatility continues to litter the charts, with the pair declining back into familiar lows near 1.3630. Wednesday’s decline adds to earlier declines after an early week peak just below 1.3760. A supply zone is baked into the daily chart as candlesticks slump back below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3677. Buyers will be looking for a chance to re-up on an extended pullback to the 200-day EMA at 1.3588. USD/CAD hourly chart USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

19:39 US Dollar plunges post ADP data and ahead of FOMC minutes
On Wednesday, the US Dollar, represented by the Dollar Index (DXY), declined to its lowest level since June 18 at around 105.20 following the release of robust ADP labor market data.

19:00 Russia Unemployment Rate below forecasts (2.7%) in May: Actual (2.6%)
Russia Unemployment Rate below forecasts (2.7%) in May: Actual (2.6%)

19:00 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (29B) in June 28: Actual (32B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (29B) in June 28: Actual (32B)

18:41 EUR: Probability of RN winning majority continues to fade – MUFG
The Euro (EUR) has been holding on to gains against the US dollar at the start of this month, MUFG analysts note.

The Euro (EUR) has been holding on to gains against the US dollar at the start of this month, MUFG analysts note. EUR to continue its volatile wobbling “After hitting a low of 1.0666 towards the end of last month, EUR/USD initially jumped to a high of 1.0776 on Monday after the release of results from the first round of the French elections triggered a relief rally for EUR, the pair has since fallen back towards the 1.0700-level and recovered back to 1.0800.“ “The market impact has once again been more evident in the government bond market where the yield spread between the 10-year French and German government bonds has narrowed to around 71bps from a high of 82bps towards the end of last month.” “The easing of the first risk premium priced into French government bonds that had reached the highest levels seen the euro-zone debt crisis back between 2011 and 2012 reflects building investor optimism that the far-right RN party will fall short of winning a majority in parliament.”

18:36 USD/JPY: To intervene or wait? – OCBC
Higher USD/JPY continues to drum up expectations of intervention though some may be watching if authorities are allowing for further depreciation before stepping in.

Higher USD/JPY continues to drum up expectations of intervention though some may be watching if authorities are allowing for further depreciation before stepping in. Spread between implied and realised vol continues to widen. And we observed from history that actual market intervention risks do rise if spread continues to widen, OCBC strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart “In the interim, USD/JPY will look to UST yields, US Dollar (USD) for directional cues. For USD/JPY to turn lower, that would require the USD to turn/Fed to cut or for BoJ to signal an intent to normalise urgently (rate hike or increase pace of balance sheet reduction). None of the above appears to be taking place.” “As such, the path of least resistance for USD/JPY may still be to the upside unless intervention takes place. And we shared that intervention is at best a tool to slow pace of JPY depreciation and not to reverse the trend.” “USD/JPY was last at 161.44. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is still in overbought conditions. Next resistance at 164, 164.90 levels. Support at 160.20, 158.10 (21 DMA), 156.90 (50 DMA).”

18:31 United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 5.27% to 5.28%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 5.27% to 5.28%

18:28 EUR/USD: Increased volatility amid France’s risks – OCBC
The Euro (EUR) dipped in London morning yesterday as the release of CPI estimate shows inflation slows.

The Euro (EUR) dipped in London morning yesterday as the release of CPI estimate shows inflation slows. But losses were more than retraced into gains following the US Dollar (USD) pullback (on Powell’s comments), OCBC strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Second round runoff may spur volatile price action “French media reported that between 214 and 218 third-places contenders had pulled out of the race in their constituencies. This means Marine Le Pen’s party needs 289 seats to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly. She says that she will try to open talks with individual MPs to form a government if she can secure around 270 deputies. “We should expect to see EUR volatility returning closer to second round runoff this Sunday (7 Jul). Results should be in by the time Asia opens on Mon (8 Jul). A hung parliament would be a lesser evil for EUR than a right-wing outcome.” “EUR/USD was last at 1.0808 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded though rise in RSI slowed. 2-way trades still likely. Resistance at 1.0810 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low, 100 DMA). Support at 1.0710, 1.0660/ 70 levels (recent low).”

18:12 GBP/USD Price Analysis: Surges past 1.2750 as buyers gain momentum
The Pound Sterling rallied sharply against the US Dollar following a dismal ISM Services PMI reading, which increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will indeed cut rates at least once in 2024.

18:09 French election spooks markets – Danske Bank
The economic recovery in the euro area might not be as solid as previously thought.

The economic recovery in the euro area might not be as solid as previously thought. At least that is the impression the June PMI survey gives, and the less upbeat picture was confirmed by German IFO data, Danske Bank’s macro analysts note. Eurozone recovery may be less solid than expected “The service sector has lost some momentum and the manufacturing recession reaccelerated after we had seen promising signs of a stabilisation here in recent months. Price pressures moderated a bit in June in the euro area, but by and large, service inflation remains too high.” “The ECB delivered the widely anticipated first 25bp rate cut but kept its forward-looking guidance vague at its June meeting. We see the move as a roll-back of the September 2023 insurance hike and as we still see a sufficiently growth momentum and sticky inflation, we do not expect the next rate cut from the ECB until December.” “The possibility of a new French parliament ready to run higher deficits has spooked markets through June. Rassemblement National won the first round of the parliamentary elections with 33% of the votes. This means the most likely scenario is a ‘hung parliament’ and thus limited risk of France going down an increasingly unsustainable fiscal policy path.”

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.15M) in June 28: Actual (-12.157M)
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.15M) in June 28: Actual (-12.157M)

17:27 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Forms reversal pattern and begins falling again
EUR/GBP has moved lower after filling the price gap that opened between 0.8472 and 0.8490 (red shaded area) during the steep decline of June 10.

EUR/GBP forms a two bar reversal pattern and begins descending. This follows price filling a gap on the charts – another reversal sign. The correction from the June 14 lows may have ended and a new leg of the intermediate downtrend could be evolving. EUR/GBP has moved lower after filling the price gap that opened between 0.8472 and 0.8490 (red shaded area) during the steep decline of June 10. The pair has formed a two-bar reversal pattern on July 1-2 (light blue rectangle) which is a bearish reversal sign. These patterns form after an up move when a green candle is succeeded by a red candle of a similar shape and size. The pattern indicates a reversal of sentiment at a peak. This and the gap-fill increase the odds the up move from the June 14 lows has finished. It is likely the pair is probably rolling over and entering a bearish phase. EUR/GBP Daily Chart Taken together with the fact that the pair seems to be in a medium-term downtrend and “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a resumption lower. A break below 0.8457 (June 28 low) would add confirmation. The next target below that would be the 0.8431 June 25 low. EUR/GBP 4-hour Chart
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the 4-hour chart has crossed below its signal line during the reversal at the recent July 1 highs. This further indicates the correction may have run its course and is now turning lower. It is still possible the pair could recover, however, and a break above 0.8499 (July 1) high would indicate a continuation of the correction higher, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 0.8517 providing the next resistance target to the upside.

17:24 EUR/USD: Last day in Sintra – ING
Today is the last day of the Sintra summit, which will include comments by ECB’s Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Piero Cipollone, Philip Lane and Klaas Knot, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

Today is the last day of the Sintra summit, which will include comments by ECB’s Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Piero Cipollone, Philip Lane and Klaas Knot, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD has little chance to rise to 1.0900 “Eurozone inflation declined in line with expectations in June (from 2.6% to 2.5%), but the core measure was unchanged at 2.9%, which endorses the widely reiterated caution on easing guidance by Christine Lagarde and other ECB members.” “Today is the last day of the Sintra summit, which will include some closing comments by Lagarde, as well as speeches by the ECB’s Luis de Guindos, Piero Cipollone, Philip Lane and Klaas Knot. Chief Economist Philip Lane backed Lagarde’s message of patience yesterday, adding that June data would not answer questions on services inflation.” “The calendar in the eurozone turns much quieter in the second half of the week, and today it only includes final PMI figures and May PPI numbers. While a softer USD could drive EUR/USD above 1.0800, we doubt there is enough steam to rise to 1.0900 for now.”

17:17 USD/JPY: To come back below 160 in the coming weeks – Rabobank
Yield differentials seem important to the USD/JPY outlook. FX intervention may be on the cards again very soon because the Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, weighing on the consumer confidence, Rabobank FX strategists note.

Yield differentials seem important to the USD/JPY outlook. FX intervention may be on the cards again very soon because the Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, weighing on the consumer confidence, Rabobank FX strategists note. JPY weakness is inflationary “Yield differentials are clearly front and centre to the outlook for USD/JPY. Today’s downward revision to Japan’s June PMI survey has only enhanced the difficulty that BoJ hawks face.” “That said, JPY weakness is inflationary and is weighing on consumer confidence which will increase the will of policy makers to stabilise the currency. FX intervention may be on the cards again very soon. However, in the absence of better Japanese economic data the JPY remains very vulnerable.” “We have revised higher our forecasts for USD/JPY and see little scope for a sustained recovery for the JPY below USD/JPY160 in the coming weeks.”

17:10 USD/CAD tumbles below 1.3650 on weak US private labor demand and Services PMI
The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to near 1.3650 in Wednesday’s American session.

17:09 EUR/USD carries a heavy weighting within DXY – Rabobank
The EUR/USD weighs heavy weighting on the DXY. Markets think a hung parliament would restrict the Far-Right in Europe to enact costly voter-friendly fiscal changes, Rabobank analysts note.

The EUR/USD weighs heavy weighting on the DXY. Markets think a hung parliament would restrict the Far-Right in Europe to enact costly voter-friendly fiscal changes, Rabobank analysts note. EUR/USD is set to move lower in the coming months “The direction of EUR/USD carries a heavy weighting within the DXY index. Despite the uncertainties connected with the French election, the EUR/USD is trading slightly above its mid-June levels as the market reacts to an increase in expectations that Le Pen’s far-right party will fail to win an outright parliamentary majority in Sunday’s run-off election.” “From the market’s perspective a hung parliament should restrict the ability of the Far-Right to enact costly voter-friendly fiscal changes. Like other far-right parties across Europe currently, France’s National Rally party is far-right in terms of national identity and tight immigration policies but is also has a strong social agenda which would be costly in terms of the budget.” “Looking beyond the short-term fluctuations, our bond strategists see the Bund/Oat spread trading in a wider range going forward and, if the market pays greater heed to both French and Italian budgets, EUR bulls could retreat. This supports the view that EUR/USD could move lower in the coming months.”

17:07 US ISM Services PMI drops to 48.8 in June vs. 52.5 expected
Business activity in the US service sector contracted in June, with the ISM Services PMI dropping to 48.8 from 53.8 in May.

US ISM Services PMI fell into contraction territory in June.US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure with the immediate reaction.Business activity in the US service sector contracted in June, with the ISM Services PMI dropping to 48.8 from 53.8 in May. This reading missed the market expectation of 52.5 by a wide margin. Other details of the report showed that the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component, edged lower to 56.3 from 58.1, while the Employment Index slumped to 46.1 from 47.1. Assessing the survey's findings, "the decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment," said Steve Miller, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Business Survey Committee. "Survey respondents report that in general, business is flat or lower, and although inflation is easing, some commodities have significantly higher costs," Miller added. "Panelists indicate that slower supplier delivery performance is due primarily to transportation challenges, not increases in demand." Market reaction The US Dollar came under heavy bearish pressure with the immediate reaction to the disappointing ISM Services PMI report. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.5% on the day at 105.17.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in May
United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in May

17:00 United States ISM Services PMI came in at 48.8 below forecasts (52.5) in June
United States ISM Services PMI came in at 48.8 below forecasts (52.5) in June

17:00 United States ISM Services New Orders Index: 47.3 (June) vs previous 54.1
United States ISM Services New Orders Index: 47.3 (June) vs previous 54.1

17:00 United States ISM Services Employment Index fell from previous 47.1 to 46.1 in June
United States ISM Services Employment Index fell from previous 47.1 to 46.1 in June

17:00 United States ISM Services Prices Paid fell from previous 58.1 to 56.3 in June
United States ISM Services Prices Paid fell from previous 58.1 to 56.3 in June

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 54.8, above expectations (54.6) in June
United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 54.8, above expectations (54.6) in June

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.3, above expectations (55.1) in June
United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.3, above expectations (55.1) in June

16:15 Fed Minutes Preview: Markets to focus on cues regarding the inflation outlook
The Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) June 11-12 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Minutes of the Fed’s June 11-12 policy meeting will be published on Wednesday.Details of Jerome Powell and Co’s hawkish hold and their inflation outlook will be scrutinized.Markets wager a roughly 67% chance of a Fed interest-rate cut in September.The Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) June 11-12 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Investors will scout for details into the Fed’s hawkish hold and policymakers’ outlook on inflation to gauge the timing of the expected interest rate cut this year. Jerome Powell admits disinflation progress, a September cut likely? The Fed maintained its monetary policy settings for the seventh consecutive meeting in June, as widely expected. In its policy statement, the US central bank said that “while inflation has slowed recently and the jobs market has become more balanced this year, the uncertain economic outlook keeps the Fed “highlight attentive to inflation risks”.” “Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot, broadly met expectations with a higher inflation forecast for 2024 and less easing this year; The median FOMC member called for one 25 basis point cut by the end of this year and four 25 basis point cuts in 2025,” the policy statement read. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that "we need further confidence, more good inflation readings but won't be specific about how many to start rate cuts. We'll also be looking at a balance of risks, and outlook as well." "Unexpected weakness in the labor market could also call for a response,” Powell explained. Just a few hours before the Fed policy announcement, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published the May inflation report. Data showed that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%. Since the May inflation report and the June policy announcement, several Fed policymakers remained wary about the inflation outlook, suggesting that the rates could stay ‘higher for longer’. However, dovish Fed bets returned on the table after data on June 28 showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in May after advancing 2.7% a month before. May's inflation readings were in line with economists' expectations. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s much-awaited comments at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking in Sintra on Tuesday added to the Fed rate cut expectations. Powell acknowledged the recent progress in disinflation, which was perceived as dovish even though he quickly added he wanted to see more before being confident enough to start lowering interest rates. Currently, markets see a 67% chance of the Fed lowering rates in September, a tad higher than about 63% seen before Powell’s commentary. Previewing the Fed’s publication, “Wednesday's FOMC minutes will also shed light on the Fed's more cautious stance at the June meeting, though SEP projections might prove to be already somewhat stale,” TD Securities analysts said. When will FOMC Minutes be released and how could it affect the US Dollar? The Fed will release the minutes of the June 11-12 policy meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Investors will keep a close eye on any hints on the timing of the policy pivot, especially after the ongoing disinflationary trend and dovish Fed Chair Powell’s remarks. In case the Minutes show that policymakers continued to warrant caution on inflation, pushing back against aggressive Fed rate cut expectations while justifying a single rate cut later in the year, the US Dollar (USD) could stage a comeback against its major rivals. If the publication suggests that officials express their optimism on the encouraging progress in inflation, risk flows could regain momentum and weigh negatively on the USD. Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst, shares a brief technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY): “The US Dollar Index has been in a consolidative phase after retreating from two-month highs of 106.13, with risks likely to the upside amid a 21-day and the 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) bullish crossover. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays firm above the 50 level, near 56.30, adding credence to the bullish potential. In case the index finds acceptance above the 106.00 threshold, a retest of June highs at 106.13 cannot be ruled. The next upside target is seen at the 106.50 psychological mark.” “On the flip side, if the 21-day SMA support at 105.37 gives way, a test of the 50-day SMA at 105.17 will be inevitable. A sustained move below that level could fuel a fresh downtrend toward the 100-day SMA at 104.76.” Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 03, 2024 18:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: -Previous: -Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

15:53 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps higher above $30 as Fed Powell prompts optimism on rate cuts
Silver price (XAG/USD) rallies to near $30.50 in Wednesday’s American session.

15:37 US: Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected last week
US citizens that applied for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 238K in the week ending June 29 according to the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.

Initial Jobless Claims rose by 238K vs. the previous week.Continuing Jobless Claims increased by nearly 1.850M.US citizens that applied for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 238K in the week ending June 29 according to the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday. The prints came in above initial estimates (235K) and were higher than the previous weekly gain of 234K (revised from 233K). Further details of the publication revealed that the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% and the 4-week moving average was 238.50K, an increase of 2.250K from the previous week's revised average. In addition, Continuing Claims increased by 26K to 1.858M in the week ended June 22. Market reaction The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains its bearish stance on Thursday, hovering around the mid-105.00s amidst the firm improvement in the risk-associated galaxy.

15:36 United States Goods Trade Balance: $-99.37B (May) vs $-100.6B
United States Goods Trade Balance: $-99.37B (May) vs $-100.6B

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims up to 1.858M in June 21 from previous 1.839M
United States Continuing Jobless Claims up to 1.858M in June 21 from previous 1.839M

15:30 Canada International Merchandise Trade registered at $-1.93B, below expectations ($-1.2B) in May
Canada International Merchandise Trade registered at $-1.93B, below expectations ($-1.2B) in May

15:30 Canada Exports: $62.45B (May) vs previous $64.45B
Canada Exports: $62.45B (May) vs previous $64.45B

15:30 Canada Imports dipped from previous $65.5B to $64.37B in May
Canada Imports dipped from previous $65.5B to $64.37B in May

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 238K, above forecasts (235K) in June 28
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 238K, above forecasts (235K) in June 28

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average up to 238.5K in June 28 from previous 236K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average up to 238.5K in June 28 from previous 236K

15:30 United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-75.1B, above expectations ($-76.2B) in May
United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-75.1B, above expectations ($-76.2B) in May

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change below expectations (160K) in June: Actual (150K)
United States ADP Employment Change below expectations (160K) in June: Actual (150K)

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) fell from previous -0.5% to -0.9% in May
Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) fell from previous -0.5% to -0.9% in May

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1%, above expectations (-1.7%) in May
Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1%, above expectations (-1.7%) in May

14:44 USD: Data more relevant than minutes – ING
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jay Powell sounded cautiously optimistic on disinflation which, paired with recent PCE data, allows markets to keep betting on a Fed rate cut in September, ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jay Powell sounded cautiously optimistic on disinflation which, paired with recent PCE data, allows markets to keep betting on a Fed rate cut in September, ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Fed minutes less relevant than data “The US Dollar (USD) traded on the soft side yesterday after Fed Chair Powell's comments in Sintra. As we had expected, he sounded rather upbeat on disinflation, even though he continued to warrant caution on the next policy move.” “Today, the focus will be on a few important data releases: ADP employment, Jobless claims, and ISM services index for June. Yesterday, job openings for May rose unexpectedly, but the trend continues to point at the kind of “inflection point” in the jobs market described by the Fed’s Mary Daly in a recent comment.” “The Fed will publish the minutes of the 12 June FOMC meeting. We expect members to voice concerns on inflation, although the market impact may not be very big after Powell’s comments in Sintra and recent encouraging data on disinflation. We see some downside risks for the USD stemming from softer US data, but the euro-heavy DXY may not show that very clearly.”

14:30 United States Challenger Job Cuts down to 48.786K in June from previous 63.816K
United States Challenger Job Cuts down to 48.786K in June from previous 63.816K

14:30 Natural Gas sees bearish sentiment not fading soon
Natural Gas price (XNG/USD) still stuck in its correction, adding a seventh day for now to the chronicles. The decline is being fueled again by the outlook that European gas storages are still being filled up, despite the current pickup in energy demand.

14:20 Gold attempts to break above 50-day SMA after Powell speech
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies into the $2,340s on Wednesday as investors continue to digest the contents of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech from Tuesday and the shift in monetary-policy stance that his words reflected.

14:02 Fed officials are getting more concerned about the labor market – BBH
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said recent data suggest that they’re getting back on a disinflationary path and that unexpected labor market weakening could prompt a policy reaction, BBH macro analysts note.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said recent data suggest that they’re getting back on a disinflationary path and that unexpected labor market weakening could prompt a policy reaction, BBH macro analysts note. Fed policy might pivot soon “Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recent data ‘suggest that we’re getting back on a disinflationary path. What we’d like to see is more data like what we’ve been seeing recently.’ He added that unexpected labor market weakening could prompt a policy reaction.” “Elsewhere, Goolsbee said ‘If employment starts falling apart or if the economy begins to weaken, which you’ve seen some warning signs, you’ve got to balance that off with how progress you’re making on the price front. The unemployment rate is still quite low, but it has been rising.’” “More and more Fed officials are expressing concern about the state of the labor market. We started to see this last week, when both Goolsbee and Daly hinted that Fed policy might pivot soon. Again, the Fed is certainly more concerned about the labor market than it's been in the past. If the data cooperate, we believe a September cut remains very much in play.”

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.6% (June 28) vs previous 0.8%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.6% (June 28) vs previous 0.8%

13:45 US Dollar touch softer ahead of crammed economic calendar
The US Dollar (USD) eases on Wednesday after surprise comments from US Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee in Sintra during the European Central Bank symposium.

13:39 AUD/USD exhibits sideways trend below 0.6700 with US labor market data in focus
The AUD/USD pair stays in a tight range below the immediate resistance of 0.6700 from almost three weeks.

13:38 Taking time means tightening – UBS
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell said yesterday that the strength of the US economy and labor market meant the Fed could take its time in cutting rates.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell said yesterday that the strength of the US economy and labor market meant the Fed could take its time in cutting rates. Taking time means tightening policy further, and this is a rather risky point of view, UBS analyst Paul Donovan notes. Signs of strain in the US, French elections ease their grasp “Powell seems to have a rather trusting belief in the precision of economic data. The declining accuracy of data reduces certainty about the state of the US economy. While a soft landing seems to have been achieved, looking across a broad range of indicators there are signs of strain (perhaps especially in the labor market).” “In France, over two hundred candidates have withdrawn from three-way contests in the second round of the national assembly elections. This is a 'front républicain', aimed at preventing the far-right Rassemblement National from taking office. Markets will view this as reducing the possibility of an absolute majority in the assembly.” “Assorted sentiment polls clutter the calendar, and there is ongoing central bank chatter. The US is releasing May factory orders data, but this is rarely an indicator that markets care that much about.”

13:27 EUR/USD rises as sticky Eurozone service inflation keeps ECB’s rate outlook uncertain
EUR/USD jumps higher to near 1.0770 in Wednesday’s European session after a strong recovery from the round-level support of 1.0700 on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD moves higher to 1.0770 as the US Dollar corrects, and the preliminary Eurozone service inflation for June remains sticky.The US Dollar declines as Fed’s Powell remains confident that disinflation has resumed.Headline Eurozone HICP decelerated expectedly, while the core figure grew steadily year-on-year.EUR/USD jumps higher to near 1.0770 in Wednesday’s European session after a strong recovery from the round-level support of 1.0700 on Tuesday. The major currency pair extends its recovery as sticky preliminary Eurozone service inflation for June deepens fears of price pressures remaining elevated for a longer period. Also, other components of the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) report showed that headline inflation decelerated expectedly to 2.5% from May’s reading of 2.6%. In the same period, the core HICP that excludes volatile items rose at a steady pace of 2.9%, and remained higher than estimates of 2.8%. The overall data fails to provide any clarity on where price pressures are heading and kept the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest-rate outlook uncertain. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that inflation is moving in the right direction, and the central bank is very advanced in the disinflation path. On the interest rate outlook, ECB policymaker and Ireland’s Central Bank Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said he is comfortable with one more rate cut this year but not with market expectations of two. However, he didn’t rule out the possibility. On the political front, the centralist alliance and the left wing of the European Union’s (EU) second-largest nation withdrew more than 200 candidates from Sunday’s parliamentary elections in an attempt to thwart the far right from gaining an absolute majority. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD recovers further as US Dollar falls EUR/USD extends its recovery to near 1.0770 as the US Dollar (USD) corrects further. The major currency pair strengthens as the commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at the ECB Forum on Central Banking indicated that the United States (US) economy has resumed its journey on the disinflation path. Powell said that recent data indicate the disinflation process has resumed and added that the central bank has made quite a bit of progress in inflation. However, he also said policymakers want to see more good inflation data before cutting interest rates. Powell's comments were much more in line with expectations and his speech delivered at the June policy meeting. Meanwhile, expectations for the Fed to reduce interest rates twice this year and initiate the easing cycle from the September meeting remain firm. Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published on Friday. The NFP report will indicate the current status of labor demand and wage growth, which will influence market speculation for Fed rate cuts in September. The US Dollar will remain uncertain on an event-packed Wednesday as ADP Employment Change, ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for June are scheduled for release. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD extends recovery to 1.0770EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0770 after a decisive break of the Hammer candlestick formation on a daily timeframe. The broader trend remains sideways amid a Symmetrical Triangle formation that exhibits a volatility contraction. Last week, the major currency pair rebounded after finding strong buying interest near the upward-sloping border of the Symmetrical Triangle formation near 1.0666, which is marked from the 3 October 2023 low at 1.0448. The downward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from 18 July 2023 high at 1.1276. The Symmetrical Triangle formation exhibits a sharp volatility contraction, which indicates low volume and narrow ticks. The major currency pair remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0790, suggesting that the overall trend is bearish. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

13:26 Euro Area: Growth to continue, despite a decline in PMIs – Danske Bank
In contrast to the strong data releases in previous months, June PMIs declined unexpectedly with the composite indicator falling to 50.8 from 52.5 in May, below expectations of 52.5, Eurozone economy to continue growing “Despite, the downtick, the composite PMI was significantly higher in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating that the economy also grew in Q2.

In contrast to the strong data releases in previous months, June PMIs declined unexpectedly with the composite indicator falling to 50.8 from 52.5 in May, below expectations of 52.5, Eurozone economy to continue growing “Despite, the downtick, the composite PMI was significantly higher in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating that the economy also grew in Q2. Hence, we expect the economy to continue growing, driven by a strong services sector, resilient labour market and rising real incomes.” “Headline inflation in June declined to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y due to lower energy and food inflation, while core remained sticky at 2.9% y/y. Decomposing the print reveals a continued strong momentum in services inflation. Akin to the picture seen lately, underlying inflation momentum - especially services inflation - remains too high for the ECB's comfort.” “In the French election, we believe the most probable outcome is that no party will gain an absolute majority, resulting in a 'hung parliament' and policy gridlock. Hence, France's public spending, which has been a centre of attention in recent weeks, is not set to rise markedly.”

13:20 China: Growth likely slowed to 5% y/y in Q2 – Standard Chartered
The manufacturing PMI stayed below 50 for a second straight month in June as demand softened.

The manufacturing PMI stayed below 50 for a second straight month in June as demand softened. Real activity growth likely edged down partly due to base effects; export growth may have stayed strong, Standard Chartered Global Research analysts Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding note. Production remained robust amid weak demand “China’s official manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5 in June, staying in contractionary territory for a second month. That said, production activity remained resilient. The average production PMI picked up 0.3pt from Q1 to 51.4 in Q2. Meanwhile, the average new orders PMI fell 0.2pts to 50.1.” “Industrial production (IP), retail sales and fixed asset investment (FAI) growth likely edged down in June versus May, partly due to base effects. External demand may have remained resilient, supporting production activity. The consumer goods trade-in programme likely supported retail sales of home appliances.” “PPI deflation likely eased further to 0.5% y/y in June due to a low base, while CPI inflation may have inched up to 0.4% y/y. We believe M2 and credit growth slowed further amid weak credit demand, and enhanced regulatory and statistical measures.”

13:13 Markets focus on the US data – Societe Generale
The two most-watched US economic surprise indices, published by Bloomberg and Citi, are showing a steady downward trend – i.e., a lot of negative surprises in the data, Societe Generale FX strategist Kit Juckes notes.

The two most-watched US economic surprise indices, published by Bloomberg and Citi, are showing a steady downward trend – i.e., a lot of negative surprises in the data, Societe Generale FX strategist Kit Juckes notes. Services ISM and Friday’s NFP data attract plenty of interest “The negative surprises in data clearly affect sentiment, though we are wary of over-interpreting short-term swings and roundabouts with the data and since employment growth remains consistent with a tight labour market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will want to see a lot more evidence before embarking on an easing cycle.” “The downtrend in the data increases the focus on the most closely watched releases; ISMs, labour market data and the CPI/PCE inflation readings. Wednesday services ISM and Friday’s NFP data will attract plenty of interest and any surprise will trigger a reaction.” “We expect the services ISM to fall back from 53.8 to 52.3, which is consistent with steady growth, and payroll employment to increase by 220,000. I’ll guess the market needs to see something closer to 150k in payrolls and an ISM closer to 50, to get really excited and start selling the dollar.”

12:55 WTI corrects to near $82.30 ahead of US economy and weekly Oil inventory data
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, correct to near $82.30 from a two-month high of $83.77 in Wednesday’s European session.

12:53 EUR/USD to trade between 1.03 and 1.09 – Societe Generale
The Euro (EUR) is back where it was before parliamentary elections were called, Societe Generale FX strategist Kit Juckes notes.

The Euro (EUR) is back where it was before parliamentary elections were called, Societe Generale FX strategist Kit Juckes notes. EUR is beck where it was “1-mnth volatility is most of the way back to where it was before parliamentary elections were called. Insouciance or simply a case that the consensus was already so negative that it takes a lot of bad news to get it significantly lower?” “Either way, I still think there’s less upside from here than downside and we see a 1.03-1.09 range holding for the rest of the year.”

12:49 AUD/JPY is back in fashion – Societe Generale
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to find support in solid data, this morning in the form of retail sales, Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes notes.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to find support in solid data, this morning in the form of retail sales, Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes notes. AUD/JPY draws attention of the market “The front end of the curve now prices a 50% chance of another rate hike this year and the Australian/US 2y yield differential is wider than it was at the start of the year (when AUD/USD was above 0.68).” “The more fashionable trade today, however, may be to buy AUD/JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) bears are talking of the BoJ’s next line in the sand being at USD/JPY 6, though most of them simply think that as long as yield differentials are huge, the yen can just keep on falling.” “I can’t see the yen turning around until Fed easing is in view, and AUD/JPY has now broken above the 2007 peak and is back at levels last spotted in 1991.”

12:48 Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.63% vs 2.6%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.63% vs 2.6%

12:34 USD/CNH: The next resistance above 7.3100 is at 7.3200 – UOB Group
The US Dollar (USD) could edge above 7.3100. The next resistance at 7.3200 is unlikely to come into view, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view, UOB Group analysts note.

The US Dollar (USD) could edge above 7.3100. The next resistance at 7.3200 is unlikely to come into view, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view, UOB Group analysts note. USD can edge above 7.3100 24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we indicated that ‘there is a chance for USD to edge above 7.3100, but it is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level.’ However, USD traded in a narrow range between 7.3029 and 7.3094, closing at 7.3072 (+0.02%). The underlying tone still appears to be firm, and we continue to expect USD to edge above 7.3100. The next resistance at 7.3200 is unlikely to come into view. Support levels are at 7.3020 and 7.2980.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (27 Jun, spot at 7.2990), we indicated that USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view. We added, ‘only a breach of 7.2800 would mean that the advance in USD from the middle of the month has ended.’ While we continue to hold the same view, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 7.2880 from 7.2800 previously.”

12:24 USD/JPY: A break above 162.00 is highly possible – UOB Group
The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range between 161.20 and 161.80.

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range between 161.20 and 161.80. If it breaks above 162.00, the next level to watch is 163.00, UOB Group FX strategists suggest. USD strength remains intact 24-HOUR VIEW: “We highlighted yesterday that USD ‘could test the resistance at 162.00 before the risk of a pullback increases.’ We added, ‘a sustained break above 162.00 appears unlikely.’ However, instead of testing 162.00, USD traded in a relatively quiet manner between 161.26 and 161.75, closing largely unchanged at 161.44 (-0.01%). The price action is likely part of a sideways trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 161.20 and 161.80.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Not much has changed since our update yesterday (02 Jul, spot at 161.76). As highlighted, the USD strength that started in the middle of last month remains intact. From here, if USD breaks above 162.00, the next level to watch is 163.00. Overall, only a breach of 160.45 (‘strong support’ level previously at 160.30) would indicate that the USD strength has ended.”

12:14 NZD/USD: Set to trade with an upward bias – UOB Group
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade with an upward bias.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade with an upward bias. It remains to be seen if it can breach the strong resistance level at 0.6105, because downward momentum has slowed further, UOB Group analysts note. A breach of 0.6105 to turn NZD positive 24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we held the view that NZD ‘could pullback further, but any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.6040.’ We indicated that ‘resistance levels are at 0.6085 and 0.6105.’ Our view was not wrong, as NZD dipped to a fresh one-month low of 0.6048 before rebounding. Not only has downward momentum faded, but upward momentum has also increased to some extent. Today, we expect NZD to trade with an upward bias, but it remains to be seen if it can breach the strong resistance level at 0.6105. Support levels are at 0.6065 and 0.6050.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have expected NZD to weaken since the middle of last month. In our latest narrative from Monday (01 Jul, spot at 0.6095), we indicated that ‘while there is still room for NZD to continue to weaken, the slowdown in momentum suggests 0.6040 could be out of reach this time.’ Yesterday, NZD dipped to 0.6048 and then rebounded, closing largely unchanged at 0.6078 (+0.05%). Downward momentum has slowed further, and if NZD breaches 0.6105 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.6135), it would mean that the weakness in NZD has stabilised.”

12:08 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:06 Mexican Peso pushed and pulled by different counterparts
The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades according to the distinctive domestic factors affecting its key counterparts on Wednesday.

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in May
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in May

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -4.2% below forecasts (-4.1%) in May
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -4.2% below forecasts (-4.1%) in May

11:57 AUD/USD: The pair may edge above 0.6685 – UOB Group
Underlying tone seems to be firming. The Australian Dollar (AUD) could edge above 0.6685 but is unlikely to threaten the major resistance at 0.6705.

Underlying tone seems to be firming. The Australian Dollar (AUD) could edge above 0.6685 but is unlikely to threaten the major resistance at 0.6705. The likelihood of it breaking clearly above the major resistance zone of 0.6705/0.6715 is low for now, UOB Group analysts note. The major resistance zone is at 0.6705/0.6715 24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that the price action from Monday did not result in any increase in either upward or downward momentum. We expected AUD to trade sideways between 0.6630 and 0.6685. AUD then traded in a range of 0.6634/0.6671, closing at 0.6668 (+0.11%). The underlying tone seems to be firming, and AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias today. While it could edge above 0.6685, the major resistance at 0.6705 is unlikely to come under threat. Support levels are at 0.6655 and 0.6640.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (01 Jul, spot at 0.6670), wherein the recent price action has resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum. We indicated that ‘as long as AUD remains above 0.6610, it is likely to edge higher, but the likelihood of it breaking clearly above the major resistance zone of 0.6705/0.6715 is low for now.’ While we continue to expect AUD to edge higher, the ‘strong support’ level has moved up to 0.6625 from 0.6610.”

11:46 GBP/USD: Sidelined with a chance to test 1.2720 – UOB Group
Current price movements are likely part of a consolidation, likely between 1.2600 and 1.2720.

Current price movements are likely part of a consolidation, likely between 1.2600 and 1.2720. The Pound Sterling (GBP) could rebound further, but any advance is unlikely to be able to break the major resistance at 1.2720, UOB Group FX strategists suggest. GBP must not break below 1.2650 to continue falling 24-HOUR VIEW: “After GBP spiked to a high of 1.2710 on Monday and then pulled back, we indicated yesterday (Tuesday) that ‘the brief advance did not result in any increase in upward momentum.’ We held the view that GBP is likely to trade in a sideways range of 1.2615/1.2680. GBP then dipped close to the bottom of our expected range (low of 1.2616) before rebounding strongly, reaching a high of 1.2689. Upward momentum is building, and GBP could continue to rebound today. Given that conditions are approaching overbought levels, any advance is unlikely to be able to break above the major resistance at 1.2720. To keep the momentum going, GBP must not break below 1.2650, with minor support at 1.2665.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted yesterday (02 Jul, spot at 1.2645) that the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. We held the view that GBP ‘is likely to trade between 1.2600 and 1.2720 for now.’ We continue to hold the same view.”

11:37 NZD/USD inches higher to near 0.6100 due to dovish Fedspeak
NZD/USD appreciates for the second successive session as the US Dollar (USD) struggles due to the escalated speculations of Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in 2024.

11:33 EUR/USD: Major resistance is at 1.0785 – UOB Group
The Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.0680 and 1.0785.

The Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.0680 and 1.0785. It might drift higher, but any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance level at 1.0785, UOB Group analysts note. Rangebound for the time being 24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, EUR rose to 1.0776 before pulling back. Yesterday, we indicated that ‘the pullback in overbought conditions suggests EUR is unlikely to rise further,’ and we expected EUR to trade in a sideways range of 1.0710/1.0760. EUR subsequently traded sideways between 1.0709 and 1.0747, closing largely unchanged at 1.0744 (+0.06%). Despite the relatively quiet price action, the underlying tone has firmed somewhat. Today, we expect EUR to drift higher, but any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.0785 (there is another resistance level at 1.0765). On the downside, if the pair breaks below 1.0715 (minor support is at 1.0730), it would suggest that the current mild upward pressure has eased.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as two days (01 Jul, spot at 1.0735). As highlighted, EUR is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.0680 and 1.0785.”

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 52.3, above forecasts (51.7) in June
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 52.3, above forecasts (51.7) in June

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 52.1, above expectations (51.2) in June
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 52.1, above expectations (51.2) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.8) in June
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.8) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (52.6) in June: Actual (52.8)
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (52.6) in June: Actual (52.8)

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50.6) in June: Actual (50.4)
Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50.6) in June: Actual (50.4)

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 53.1, below expectations (53.5) in June
Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 53.1, below expectations (53.5) in June

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.8) in June: Actual (49.6)
France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.8) in June: Actual (49.6)

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.2) in June: Actual (48.8)
France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.2) in June: Actual (48.8)

10:45 Forex Today: Key data releases and FOMC Minutes point to volatile day ahead of US holiday
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 3: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Wednesday but the Japanese Yen trades at its weakest level in nearly four decades against the USD.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 3: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Wednesday but the Japanese Yen trades at its weakest level in nearly four decades against the USD. ADP Employment Change, Goods Trade Balance and ISM Services PMI data will be featured in the US economic docket later in the session. Ahead of the July 4 holiday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the minutes of its June policy meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde discussed policy outlook at the ECB Forum on Central Banking on Tuesday. Powell noted that the disinflation trend was showing signs of resuming but reiterated that they need to be more confident before reducing the policy rate. Lagarde, on the other hand, said that they were very advanced on the disinlftionary path and added that inflation in the Eurozone was heading in the right direction. Although the USD weakened against its rivals following this event, the currency's losses remained limited. In the meantime, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edged lower and Wall Street's main indexes posted strong gains. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.41% -0.38% 0.68% -0.02% -0.20% 0.21% 0.63% EUR 0.41% -0.20% 0.80% 0.08% 0.09% 0.30% 0.73% GBP 0.38% 0.20% 0.99% 0.29% 0.30% 0.51% 0.94% JPY -0.68% -0.80% -0.99% -0.69% -0.82% -0.47% -0.03% CAD 0.02% -0.08% -0.29% 0.69% -0.14% 0.23% 0.65% AUD 0.20% -0.09% -0.30% 0.82% 0.14% 0.21% 0.72% NZD -0.21% -0.30% -0.51% 0.47% -0.23% -0.21% 0.45% CHF -0.63% -0.73% -0.94% 0.03% -0.65% -0.72% -0.45% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following Wednesday's indecisive action, USD/JPY gathered bullish momentum and touched its highest level in 38 years near 162.00 early Wednesday. GBP/USD continues to edge higher and trades within a touching distance of 1.2700 after closing in positive territory on Tuesday. The UK general election will take place on Thursday.EUR/USD registered small gains on Tuesday and stabilized near 1.0750 early Wednesday. Eurostat will release Producer Price Index data for May and several ECB policymakers will be delivering speeches later in the session. The data from Australia showed earlier in the day that Retail Sales rose 0.6% on a monthly basis in May. Meanwhile, Caixin Services PMI in China declined to 51.2 in June from 54 in May. AUD/USD holds its ground following these data releases and trades in positive territory near 0.6700.Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Tuesday but gathered bullish momentum early Wednesday. At the time of press, XAU/USD was up nearly 0.5% on the day at $2,340. Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 03, 2024 18:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: -Previous: -Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (53.7) in June
Italy HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (53.7) in June

10:39 Pound Sterling clings to gains ahead of US data, UK elections outcome
The Pound Sterling (GBP) consolidates below the round-level resistance of 1.2700 in Wednesday’s London session after a sharp recovery from the three-day low of 1.2615 on Tuesday.

10:30 ADP Employment Change Preview: US private sector expected to add 160K new jobs in June
On Wednesday, the United States (US) Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release its monthly report on private sector job creation for June.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} .fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The ADP report on Employment Change is expected to print 160K in June.The Federal Reserve may continue delaying interest rate cuts on strong employment reports.The US Dollar is technically bullish and may reach 106.45 with an upbeat report. On Wednesday, the United States (US) Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release its monthly report on private sector job creation for June. The announcement, known as the ADP Employment Change, is expected to show that the country’s private sector added 160K new positions in June after adding 152K in May. The survey is usually released two days before the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, and despite random divergences in the outcome, market participants tend to read it as an advanced indicator of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. A strong job creation in the private sector will likely be seen as an upcoming upbeat NFP report. ADP Jobs Report: Employment and the Federal Reserve The US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), has a dual mandate: price stability and maximum sustainable employment. According to the Fed, price stability equals inflation, averaging 2%, while maximum sustainable employment is the highest level of employment the economy can sustain without generating unwelcome inflation. Inflationary levels have eased sustainably after hitting multi-decade highs in the pandemic aftermath, yet the labor market has been quite tight, which increases the risk of higher price pressures. Behind the Fed’s reluctance to trim interest rates is not just inflation still above 2%. The central bank met earlier in June, and Chairman Jerome Powell said data had not given the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) enough confidence to begin rate cuts. "As labor market tightness has eased and inflation has declined over the past year, the risks of reaching unemployment and inflation goals have moved towards better balance," Powell said. "Our economy has made considerable progress towards both goals of maintaining maximum employment and stable prices," he added. However, Powell and co remained cautious about potential rate cuts, with market participants now hoping for just one 25 basis points (bps) cut this year. With that in mind, a strong ADP survey and a subsequent strong NFP report will further delay the odds of a rate cut. A hawkish outcome should then give additional impetus to the USD Index. When will the ADP Report be released, and how could it affect the USD Index? ADP will release the Employment Change report on Wednesday, July 3. As previously said, it is expected to reveal that the private sector added 160K new positions in June. Generally speaking, a better-than-anticipated report should underpin the USD Index, while a disappointing reading will pressure it. The US will release the Challenger Job Cuts report ahead of the ADP survey, published by Challenger, Grey & Christmas monthly. The report provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region. In May, US-based employers announced 63,816 job cuts, a 1.5% decline from the previous month and down 20% from 80,089 cuts announced in May 2023. The figure is unlikely to directly affect the USD index but will add to the impact of the ADP report. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, takes a technical look at charts and says: “The USD Index hovers around 106.00, trading near its June monthly high at 106.13. According to the daily chart, the Index is poised to extend its advance, given the positive momentum of technical indicators, advancing within positive levels. Furthermore, the USD Index trades above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining upward traction above the longer ones. The next relevant level to watch is 106.49, the high posted on May 1 in the Fed’s monetary policy decision aftermath. The bullish case will be supported by a better-than-anticipated report.” Bednarik adds: “Should the ADP figure disappoint, the USD Index may enter a corrective decline, as a sustained decline remains out of the picture for now. A strong support level comes at 105.40, followed by the 105.10 price zone.” Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element in assessing the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels because low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given their significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 03, 2024 12:15 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 160KPrevious: 152KSource: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

10:24 USD/CAD falls toward 1.3750 due to improved Oil prices
USD/CAD extends losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3780 during the early European session on Wednesday.

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 56.8, above forecasts (56.4) in June
Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 56.8, above forecasts (56.4) in June

10:15 EUR/GBP trades with mild losses below 0.8500 ahead of ECB’s Lagarde speech
The EUR/GBP cross trades on a softer note around 0.8470 during the early European session on Wednesday.

10:04 Spain Unemployment Change up to -46.78K in June from previous -58.65K
Spain Unemployment Change up to -46.78K in June from previous -58.65K

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 71.6%, below expectations (72.6%) in June
Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 71.6%, below expectations (72.6%) in June

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2.22%) in June: Actual (1.64%)
Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2.22%) in June: Actual (1.64%)

09:45 France Budget Balance down to €-113.495B in May from previous €-91.56B
France Budget Balance down to €-113.495B in May from previous €-91.56B

09:45 France Budget Balance fell from previous €-91.56B to €-113.5B in May
France Budget Balance fell from previous €-91.56B to €-113.5B in May

09:04 EUR/JPY extends upside above 173.50, eyes on Eurozone PMI data
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the sixth consecutive day near 173.80 on Wednesday during the early European session.

09:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI fell from previous 49.8 to 47.6 in June
Russia S&P Global Services PMI fell from previous 49.8 to 47.6 in June

08:52 FX option expiries for July 3 NY cut
FX option expiries for July 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 1.1b 1.0675 1.6b 1.0685 1.2b 1.0700 1.7b 1.0750 1.3b 1.0800 1.4b 1.0870 863m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 159.50 870m 160.20 748m 162.00 660m - USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8800 2.8b 0.8985 809m 0.9050 1.2b 0.9150 790m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6450 1.3b 0.6650 554m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3500 1.8b 1.3660 880m 1.3900 595m .

FX option expiries for July 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 1.1b 1.0675 1.6b 1.0685 1.2b 1.0700 1.7b 1.0750 1.3b 1.0800 1.4b 1.0870 863m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 159.50 870m 160.20 748m 162.00 660m - USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8800 2.8b 0.8985 809m 0.9050 1.2b 0.9150 790m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6450 1.3b 0.6650 554m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3500 1.8b 1.3660 880m 1.3900 595m

08:29 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

08:02 India HSBC Composite PMI unchanged at 60.9 in June
India HSBC Composite PMI unchanged at 60.9 in June

08:01 India HSBC Services PMI above expectations (60.4) in June: Actual (60.5)
India HSBC Services PMI above expectations (60.4) in June: Actual (60.5)

07:49 USD/CHF holds steady around 0.9040 area, just below over one-month top set on Tuesday
The USD/CHF pair trades with a mild positive bias for the seventh successive day on Wednesday and is currently placed just below its highest level in over a month touched the previous day.

07:42 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates gains below 1.0750, upside potential seems limited
The EUR/USD pair consolidates gains around 1.0745 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:22 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds ground above $29.50 as Fed’s Powell turns dovish
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak for the fifth day, trading around $29.70 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:51 GBP/USD flat lines below 1.2700, looks to US data/FOMC minutes for some impetus
The GBP/USD pair struggles to build on the overnight goodish rebound from the 1.2615 area, or a multi-day low and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:43 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes a range breakout, as Fed Minutes looms
Gold price is trading around a flatline near $2,330 early Wednesday, as traders consider the recent US jobs data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, bracing for yet another busy US calendar.

06:23 Japanese Yen remains weaker as business activity shows signs of contraction
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to hold losses on Wednesday, remaining near its low of 161.75, a level not seen since 1986, recorded in the previous session.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The USD/JPY pair holds its position near a 38-year high of 161.75.The Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised downward to 49.4 in June, marking a reversal from May's 53.8.The US Dollar edges higher due to a recovery in yield on 2-year Treasury bond.The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to hold losses on Wednesday, remaining near its low of 161.75, a level not seen since 1986, recorded in the previous session. This decline can be attributed to final data indicating that Japan's business activity turned contractionary in June. Market participants focus on the possibility of foreign exchange (FX) intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could support the JPY and limit the upside of the USD/JPY pair. Japan’s 10-ear government bond yield increased to a near 13-year high of 1.11%. Traders continue to evaluate the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook amid a sharply depreciating Japanese Yen, which drives up import costs and contributes to inflationary pressures. Additionally, the central bank also announced plans to unveil a strategy for winding down its bond-buying program in July. The US Dollar (USD) halted its four-day losing streak due to a recovery in yield on a 2-year Treasury bond, which stands at 4.75% at the time of writing. Traders await the release of the US ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI for June, and the FOMC Minutes scheduled for Wednesday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen declines due to softer Services PMI The Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised downward to 49.4 in June from May’s 49.8 reading. This marks a reversal from May's 53.8 and represents the first decline in services activity since August 2022. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned slightly dovish on Tuesday. Powell said that the Fed is getting back on the disinflationary path. However, Powell wants to see further evidence before cutting interest rates as the US economy and the labor market remain strong, per Reuters. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee cautioned on Tuesday during an interview with CNBC, stating, "I see some warning signs that the real economy is weakening." Goolsbee further mentioned that progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target could accelerate more swiftly than anticipated. According to the latest Reuters survey conducted from June 25 to July 1, the Bank of Japan is expected to reduce its monthly bond purchases by roughly $100 billion (¥16.00 trillion) in the first year under a quantitative tightening (QT) plan set for release this month. This adjustment would bring the monthly purchases to approximately ¥4.65 trillion, down from the current pace of about ¥6.00 trillion. In the second year, survey respondents anticipate further reductions, with monthly purchases averaging around ¥3.55 trillion. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Tuesday that he is "closely watching FX moves with vigilance." Suzuki refrained from commenting on specific forex levels, noting that there is no change in the government's stance on foreign exchange, according to Reuters. On Monday, OCBC strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong noted that “USD/JPY continued to trade near recent highs. This is also near the highest level since 1986. There are expectations that Japanese authorities could soon intervene. While the level of JPY is one factor to consider, officials also focus on the pace of depreciation as the intent of intervention is to curb excessive volatility.” Technical Analysis: USD/JPY holds ground above 161.50 USD/JPY trades around 161.60 on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis indicates a bullish bias, with the pair holding ground near the upper boundary of an ascending channel pattern. However, caution is advised as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting a possible correction in the near term. The USD/JPY pair might test the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 161.80. A breakout above this level could strengthen bullish sentiment, potentially pushing the pair toward the psychological resistance at 162.00. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 160.60. A breach below this level could weaken the bullish bias, potentially guiding USD/JPY toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 158.60. Further decline below this channel support could lead to a test of June's low at 154.55. USD/JPY: Daily ChartJapanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% 0.00% 0.10% 0.02% -0.08% -0.02% 0.02% EUR -0.02% -0.02% 0.09% -0.00% -0.10% -0.01% 0.00% GBP -0.00% 0.02% 0.10% 0.01% -0.09% 0.00% 0.02% JPY -0.10% -0.09% -0.10% -0.10% -0.19% -0.11% -0.08% CAD -0.02% 0.00% -0.01% 0.10% -0.10% -0.02% 0.00% AUD 0.08% 0.10% 0.09% 0.19% 0.10% 0.09% 0.11% NZD 0.02% 0.00% -0.01% 0.11% 0.02% -0.09% 0.02% CHF -0.02% -0.00% -0.02% 0.08% -0.00% -0.11% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

06:10 WTI Price Analysis: Consolidates above mid-$82.00s, bullish potential seems intact
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices lack any firm intraday direction on Wednesday and oscillate in a narrow band during the Asian session.

05:33 USD/INR struggles to gain ground ahead of Indian Services PMI data
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades with mild gains on Wednesday amid the weaker US Dollar (USD).

05:24 NZD/USD sticks to modest gains after weaker Chinese PMI, remains below 50-day SMA
The NZD/USD pair builds on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 0.6050-0.6045 area, or its lowest level since mid-May and attracts some follow-through buyers for the second successive day on Wednesday.

04:49 Australian Dollar extends gains due to solid economic data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to gain ground for the second successive day on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar gains ground due to the release of solid economic data on Wednesday.Australia's Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in May, surpassing both the anticipated 0.2% rise and the prior 0.1% gain.Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to see further evidence before cutting interest rates.The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to gain ground for the second successive day on Wednesday. This upside is attributed to the Judo Bank's Australia Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, which showed a slight improvement in June. Australia's Retail Sales, a measure of the country's consumer spending, increased by 0.6% MoM in May, up from the previous month's 0.1% rise. This figure exceeded market expectations of a 0.2% increase. The AUD/USD pair is also supported by the weaker US Dollar (USD), which is likely due to the decline in US Treasury yields. Traders will be looking for further direction from the US ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI for June, and the FOMC Minutes, all of which are scheduled for release later on Wednesday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar appreciates due to higher PMI Judo Bank's Australia Services PMI increased to 51.2 MoM, up from the previous month's 51.0, surpassing the forecasted drop to 50.6. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI rose to 50.7 MoM, compared to 50.6 in the previous month. China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 54.0 in May to 51.2 in June, according to the latest data released by Caixin on Wednesday. The market forecast was for a 53.4 figure in the reported period. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned slightly dovish on Tuesday. Powell said that the Fed is getting back on the disinflationary path. However, Powell wants to see further evidence before cutting interest rates as the US economy and the labor market remain strong, per Reuters. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June monetary policy meeting minutes, released on Tuesday, indicated that the "board judged the case for holding rates steady stronger than hiking." The board emphasized the need to remain vigilant regarding upside risks to inflation, noting that data suggested an upside risk for May's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Index of Commodity Prices fell by 4.1% YoY in June, following an upwardly revised 6.0% decline in the previous month. The June decline marks the mildest deflation in sixteen consecutive months. The Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge has heightened concerns that the RBA might raise interest rates again in August. The gauge increased by 0.3% in June, maintaining the same pace as in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of rises and remaining at the highest since January. On Tuesday, Chinese state media outlet Securities Daily quoted the chief economist at CITIC Securities, suggesting that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) might consider measures like reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to inject liquidity into the market. Any potential economic shift in China could notably influence the Australian Dollar (AUD), given the close trade ties between the two nations. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar holds ground above 0.6650 The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6670 on Wednesday. The analysis of the daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle, which represents a pause in the trend as traders reach an equilibrium. However, once the price breaks out decisively from the triangle, it would signal a clear directional trend. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 50 level, indicating a bullish bias. The AUD/USD pair is likely to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle at around 0.6680, followed by the psychological level of 0.6700. Additional resistance is located at 0.6714, the highest level since January. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could find the key support around the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle at 0.6630, followed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6625. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% 0.00% 0.08% 0.03% -0.10% -0.02% 0.05% EUR -0.02% -0.01% 0.09% 0.00% -0.13% -0.02% 0.02% GBP -0.01% 0.01% 0.10% 0.02% -0.11% 0.00% 0.02% JPY -0.08% -0.09% -0.10% -0.07% -0.20% -0.11% -0.07% CAD -0.03% -0.01% -0.02% 0.07% -0.13% -0.03% 0.00% AUD 0.10% 0.13% 0.11% 0.20% 0.13% 0.10% 0.13% NZD 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.11% 0.03% -0.10% 0.03% CHF -0.05% -0.02% -0.02% 0.07% -0.00% -0.13% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:48 Gold price remains confined in a range below 50-day SMA, FOMC minutes in focus
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $2,319 area and oscillates in a narrow band below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the Asian session on Wednesday.

04:45 China Caixin Services PMI registered at 51.2, below expectations (53.4) in June
China Caixin Services PMI registered at 51.2, below expectations (53.4) in June

04:45 China’s Caixin Services PMI drops to 51.2 in June vs. 53.4 expected
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 54.0 in May to 51.2 in June, according to the latest data released by Caixin on Wednesday.

04:31 Australia’s Retail Sales rise 0.6% MoM in May vs. 0.2% expected
Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.6% MoM in May from the previous reading of a 0.1% increase, according to the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.

04:30 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.6%, above expectations (0.2%) in May
Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.6%, above expectations (0.2%) in May

04:30 Australia Building Permits (YoY) dipped from previous 3.5% to -8.5% in May
Australia Building Permits (YoY) dipped from previous 3.5% to -8.5% in May

04:30 Australia Building Permits (MoM) above forecasts (1.6%) in May: Actual (5.5%)
Australia Building Permits (MoM) above forecasts (1.6%) in May: Actual (5.5%)

04:18 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1312 vs. 7.1291 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate on Wednesday at 7.1312, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1291 and 7.2633 Reuters estimates.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate on Wednesday at 7.1312, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1291 and 7.2633 Reuters estimates.

04:01 Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) rose from previous 3.1% to 3.2% in June
Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) rose from previous 3.1% to 3.2% in June

04:01 Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM): 0.3% (June)
Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM): 0.3% (June)

04:01 Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) declined to 0.3% in June from previous 3.1%
Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) declined to 0.3% in June from previous 3.1%

04:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price climbed from previous 1.1% to 1.5% in June
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price climbed from previous 1.1% to 1.5% in June

03:47 USD/CAD weakens below 1.3700 ahead of FOMC Minutes
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to 1.3675 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday, supported by the weaker US Dollar (USD).

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI below expectations (49.8) in June: Actual (49.4)
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI below expectations (49.8) in June: Actual (49.4)

03:01 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services fell from previous 55 to 54.2 in June
Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services fell from previous 55 to 54.2 in June

02:55 USD/JPY extends gains near 161.50 ahead of US data, FOMC Minutes
The USD/JPY pair trades on a stronger note near 161.40 after reaching a new high for this move near 161.75 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

02:44 EUR/USD caught in chart churn ahead of Wednesday’s HCOB PMIs, US ADP jobs figure
EUR/USD spent Tuesday in a churning pattern, cycling just below 1.075 as the pair grapples with finding momentum.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD remains trapped in constrained intraday cycle near 1.0750.Tuesday’s EU CPI inflation print warned of an uptick in EU inflation.Wednesday brings a packed docket with EU PMIs, PPIs, and US ADP jobs.EUR/USD spent Tuesday in a churning pattern, cycling just below 1.075 as the pair grapples with finding momentum. Key labor data from the US looms ahead on Friday, and EU economic figures remain scattered throughout the back half of the trading week. Pan-EU HCOB Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation held steady at 2.9% MoM in June, holding steady at the previous figure and snubbing the forecast decline to 2.8%. Overall YoY HICP inflation eased to 2.5% as forecast, ticking down from the previous 2.6%, but European inflation figures remain notably above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target band.Forex Today: US data and FOMC should dictate the price actionFedspeak from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials helped to bolster investor mood during Tuesday’s US market session, with key policymakers giving a firmer nod to recent improvements in US inflation data. US JOLTS Job Openings also rose slightly in May, climbing to 8.14 million from the forecast steady print at 7.91 million. Signs of extending slack within the US labor market are beginning to appear, giving rate-cut-hungry financial markets reason to hope that the Fed might get pushed towards a rate trim sooner rather than later. Wednesday’s upcoming European market session will see final Producer Price Index (PPI) and HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, while the US trading window features ISM Services PMI figure and the latest ADP Employment Change numbers, a rough preview of Friday’s upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data dump. The pan-EU Composite PMI for June is expected to hold steady at 50.8, while May’s annualized European PPI is expected to improve, albeit slightly, to -4.1% YoY from the previous -5.7%. US ADP Employment Change in June is forecast to rise slightly to 160K from the previous 152K. Meanwhile, June’s ISM Services PMI is expected to cool further to 52.5 MoM from the previous 53.8.ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to make an appearance near the end of the European market session, and he Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest Meeting Minutes will be released later in the day. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 03, 2024 12:15 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 160KPrevious: 152KSource: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish. EUR/USD technical outlookEUR/USD is extending a near-term consolidation pattern, drifting into the midrange as intraday price continues to get buoyed by a supply zone priced in below 1.0680. The Fiber is cycling median bids near the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0725. Daily candlesticks are poised for an upside breakout of recent consolidation, however technical resistance is priced in at the 50-day EMA near 1.0770 and a reversal of market flows will drag EUR/USD back down into the bottom end of a rough descending channel just above the 1.0600 handle. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:20 Juda Bank Australian Services PMI ticks higher to 51.2 versus previous 51.0
Judo Bank's Australia Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures improved slightly in June, with the Services PMI ticking upwards to 51.2 MoM compared to the previous month's 51.0, and flaunting the forecast move lower to 50.6.

02:02 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI climbed from previous 50.6 to 50.7 in June
Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI climbed from previous 50.6 to 50.7 in June

02:01 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.6) in June
Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.6) in June

02:00 GBP/USD extends upside above 1.2650, eyes on US data/FOMC Minutes
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory for the fifth consecutive day around 1.2688 on Wednesday during the early Asian session.

01:10 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi struggles, eyes on SMA convergence support
On Tuesday, the NZD/USD saw minimal gains, with the pair now testing the crucial convergence of the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near the 0.6070 level and cleared daily losses.

In Tuesday's session, NZD/USD marginally rose, while bears tested the 100 and 200-day Simple SMA convergence at 0.6070.Buyers saw some resilience but the dominant force seems to be the selling one.On Tuesday, the NZD/USD saw minimal gains, with the pair now testing the crucial convergence of the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near the 0.6070 level and cleared daily losses. Whether the bulls gather momentum or the bears conquer this zone could provide fresh momentum and chart the pair's future course. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the NZD/USD pair on the daily chart sits below 50, indicating a selling strength. While the RSI is gaining gradually, the broader negative momentum cannot be ignored. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print flat red bars, signaling the subdued but bearish market bias. NZD/USD daily chart The NZD/USD encounters immediate support near the 0.6070 threshold, coinciding with the meeting point of the 100 and 200-day SMAs. If the bears break below it, more selling pressure could mount, confirming a deeper downswing. More support can be found near the 0.6050 level and below at 0.6030. The good news is that bears pushed the pair towards 0.6050 but bulls managed to recover and bring it back to 0.6070. Conversely, resistance now lies around 0.6100 followed by a crucial hurdle at the 20-day SMA at 0.6150. Additional resistance points expected are at 0.6170 and 0.6200. A break above these resistance levels could potentially end the bearish grip and steer the pair into a bullish zone.

01:07 Crude Oil churns on Tuesday, but losses limited after steep API drawdown
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil briefly clipped into a nine-week peak just shy of $84.00 per barrel on Tuesday before mid-US session market flows pulled barrel bids back down to $82.50.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Crude Oil briefly found fresh highs on Tuesday before falling back.WTI tested above $83.50 per barrel before easing back to $82.50.API reported a steeper-than-expected drawdown in US Crude Oil supplies.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil briefly clipped into a nine-week peak just shy of $84.00 per barrel on Tuesday before mid-US session market flows pulled barrel bids back down to $82.50. Crude Oil markets continue to be bolstered by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict continues to roil energy markets as investors remain concerned that a cross-border spillover of the conflict would involve direct action from Iran, which backs Hamas and would threaten Crude Oil supplies and logistics stability in the region. The American Petroleum Institute (API) noted its steepest week-on-week US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks in nearly two years; API barrel counts noted a weekly decline of -9.163 million, far below the forecast -150K drawdown and adding to the previous week’s -3 million barrel decline. Despite the sharp downturn in Crude Oil stocks, WTI bids remain constrained on Tuesday’s low end after the API also noted a 2.468 million uptick in Gasoline counts as refiners prepare for the summer travel peak. Distillate inventories declined -740K for the week ended June 28, and US Crude Oil stocks at the Cushing facility still rose 404K barrels. Economic Indicator API Weekly Crude Oil StockAPI’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) has reported total U.S. and regional data relating to refinery operations and the production of the four major petroleum products: motor gasoline, kerosene jet fuel, distillate (by sulfur content), and residual fuel oil. These products represent more than 85% of total petroleum industry. Read more. Last release: Tue Jul 02, 2024 20:30 Frequency: WeeklyActual: -9.163MConsensus: -0.15MPrevious: 0.914MSource: American Petroleum Institute WTI technical outlook WTI has broken north of near-term consolidation around the $81.50 region, but intraday bullish momentum failed to breach $84.00 per barrel. WTI is primed for a near-term pullback to median bids at the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $81.28. After a bullish breakout from near-term consolidation, WTI is drawing a potential bearish signal as topside momentum remains thin and US Crude Oil trades just north of the 200-day EMA near $79.00. WTI hourly chart WTI daily chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

00:29 Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD creeps higher as ‘double bottom’ emerges
Silver prices rose as Tuesday’s North American session finished, trading at $29.51 and registering gains of more than 0.20% at the time of writing.

00:06 NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair corrects around 98.00, positive outlook prevails
On Tuesday, the NZD/JPY pair noted neutral movements as indicators retreated from overbought levels, and the cross called for a slight correction.

NZD/JPY trades neutral around 98.00 as buyers take a breather.The cross might find supports at the 97.50-97.00 range for deep corrections.On Tuesday, the NZD/JPY pair noted neutral movements as indicators retreated from overbought levels, and the cross called for a slight correction. The daily chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) which approached overbought levels on Monday has shown a decline, indicating a potential cooldown in the bullish run observed last week. Even as the bullish drive remains the leading factor for this pair, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) manifests red bars, implying that the recent bullish acceleration might be easing off. NZD/JPY daily chart Looking ahead, in case of further correction, immediate support is currently seen at 97.50, and near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the 97.00 mark. Buyers ought to concentrate on defending these levels prior to targeting newer peaks.

00:00 South Korea FX Reserves declined to 412.21B in June from previous 412.83B
South Korea FX Reserves declined to 412.21B in June from previous 412.83B

การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)


สแกน QR Code นี้เพื่อเอาไว้ติดต่อเรา! !
1	ดาวน์โหลดและเปิดบัญชี WeChat
2	เลือก "เพิ่มรายชื่อผู้ติดต่อ"
3	เลือก "สแกน QR Code"
4	สแกนโค้ดนี้เพื่อเอาไว้ติดต่อเรา!

ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

20:28 Mexican Peso rallies on growing Fed rate cut speculation The Mexican Peso skyrocketed against the US Dollar on Wednesday after data from the United States (US) fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates more aggressively than expected.

20:03 Canadian Dollar bolstered by US data miss The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gave a shaky performance on Wednesday.

19:39 US Dollar plunges post ADP data and ahead of FOMC minutes On Wednesday, the US Dollar, represented by the Dollar Index (DXY), declined to its lowest level since June 18 at around 105.20 following the release of robust ADP labor market data.

19:00 Russia Unemployment Rate below forecasts (2.7%) in May: Actual (2.6%) Russia Unemployment Rate below forecasts (2.7%) in May: Actual (2.6%)

19:00 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (29B) in June 28: Actual (32B) United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (29B) in June 28: Actual (32B)

18:41 EUR: Probability of RN winning majority continues to fade – MUFG The Euro (EUR) has been holding on to gains against the US dollar at the start of this month, MUFG analysts note.

18:36 USD/JPY: To intervene or wait? – OCBC Higher USD/JPY continues to drum up expectations of intervention though some may be watching if authorities are allowing for further depreciation before stepping in.

18:31 United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 5.27% to 5.28% United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 5.27% to 5.28%

18:28 EUR/USD: Increased volatility amid France’s risks – OCBC The Euro (EUR) dipped in London morning yesterday as the release of CPI estimate shows inflation slows.

18:12 GBP/USD Price Analysis: Surges past 1.2750 as buyers gain momentum The Pound Sterling rallied sharply against the US Dollar following a dismal ISM Services PMI reading, which increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will indeed cut rates at least once in 2024.

18:09 French election spooks markets – Danske Bank The economic recovery in the euro area might not be as solid as previously thought.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.15M) in June 28: Actual (-12.157M) United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.15M) in June 28: Actual (-12.157M)

17:27 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Forms reversal pattern and begins falling again EUR/GBP has moved lower after filling the price gap that opened between 0.8472 and 0.8490 (red shaded area) during the steep decline of June 10.

17:24 EUR/USD: Last day in Sintra – ING Today is the last day of the Sintra summit, which will include comments by ECB’s Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Piero Cipollone, Philip Lane and Klaas Knot, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

17:17 USD/JPY: To come back below 160 in the coming weeks – Rabobank Yield differentials seem important to the USD/JPY outlook. FX intervention may be on the cards again very soon because the Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, weighing on the consumer confidence, Rabobank FX strategists note.

17:10 USD/CAD tumbles below 1.3650 on weak US private labor demand and Services PMI The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to near 1.3650 in Wednesday’s American session.

17:09 EUR/USD carries a heavy weighting within DXY – Rabobank The EUR/USD weighs heavy weighting on the DXY. Markets think a hung parliament would restrict the Far-Right in Europe to enact costly voter-friendly fiscal changes, Rabobank analysts note.

17:07 US ISM Services PMI drops to 48.8 in June vs. 52.5 expected Business activity in the US service sector contracted in June, with the ISM Services PMI dropping to 48.8 from 53.8 in May.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in May United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in May

17:00 United States ISM Services PMI came in at 48.8 below forecasts (52.5) in June United States ISM Services PMI came in at 48.8 below forecasts (52.5) in June

17:00 United States ISM Services New Orders Index: 47.3 (June) vs previous 54.1 United States ISM Services New Orders Index: 47.3 (June) vs previous 54.1

17:00 United States ISM Services Employment Index fell from previous 47.1 to 46.1 in June United States ISM Services Employment Index fell from previous 47.1 to 46.1 in June

17:00 United States ISM Services Prices Paid fell from previous 58.1 to 56.3 in June United States ISM Services Prices Paid fell from previous 58.1 to 56.3 in June

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 54.8, above expectations (54.6) in June United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 54.8, above expectations (54.6) in June

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.3, above expectations (55.1) in June United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.3, above expectations (55.1) in June

16:15 Fed Minutes Preview: Markets to focus on cues regarding the inflation outlook The Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) June 11-12 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.

15:53 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps higher above $30 as Fed Powell prompts optimism on rate cuts Silver price (XAG/USD) rallies to near $30.50 in Wednesday’s American session.

15:37 US: Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected last week US citizens that applied for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 238K in the week ending June 29 according to the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.

15:36 United States Goods Trade Balance: $-99.37B (May) vs $-100.6B United States Goods Trade Balance: $-99.37B (May) vs $-100.6B

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims up to 1.858M in June 21 from previous 1.839M United States Continuing Jobless Claims up to 1.858M in June 21 from previous 1.839M

15:30 Canada International Merchandise Trade registered at $-1.93B, below expectations ($-1.2B) in May Canada International Merchandise Trade registered at $-1.93B, below expectations ($-1.2B) in May

15:30 Canada Exports: $62.45B (May) vs previous $64.45B Canada Exports: $62.45B (May) vs previous $64.45B

15:30 Canada Imports dipped from previous $65.5B to $64.37B in May Canada Imports dipped from previous $65.5B to $64.37B in May

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 238K, above forecasts (235K) in June 28 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 238K, above forecasts (235K) in June 28

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average up to 238.5K in June 28 from previous 236K United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average up to 238.5K in June 28 from previous 236K

15:30 United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-75.1B, above expectations ($-76.2B) in May United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-75.1B, above expectations ($-76.2B) in May

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change below expectations (160K) in June: Actual (150K) United States ADP Employment Change below expectations (160K) in June: Actual (150K)

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) fell from previous -0.5% to -0.9% in May Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) fell from previous -0.5% to -0.9% in May

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1%, above expectations (-1.7%) in May Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1%, above expectations (-1.7%) in May

14:44 USD: Data more relevant than minutes – ING Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jay Powell sounded cautiously optimistic on disinflation which, paired with recent PCE data, allows markets to keep betting on a Fed rate cut in September, ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

14:30 United States Challenger Job Cuts down to 48.786K in June from previous 63.816K United States Challenger Job Cuts down to 48.786K in June from previous 63.816K

14:02 Fed officials are getting more concerned about the labor market – BBH Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said recent data suggest that they’re getting back on a disinflationary path and that unexpected labor market weakening could prompt a policy reaction, BBH macro analysts note.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.6% (June 28) vs previous 0.8% United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.6% (June 28) vs previous 0.8%

13:45 US Dollar touch softer ahead of crammed economic calendar The US Dollar (USD) eases on Wednesday after surprise comments from US Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee in Sintra during the European Central Bank symposium.

13:39 AUD/USD exhibits sideways trend below 0.6700 with US labor market data in focus The AUD/USD pair stays in a tight range below the immediate resistance of 0.6700 from almost three weeks.

13:38 Taking time means tightening – UBS Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell said yesterday that the strength of the US economy and labor market meant the Fed could take its time in cutting rates.

13:27 EUR/USD rises as sticky Eurozone service inflation keeps ECB’s rate outlook uncertain EUR/USD jumps higher to near 1.0770 in Wednesday’s European session after a strong recovery from the round-level support of 1.0700 on Tuesday.

13:20 China: Growth likely slowed to 5% y/y in Q2 – Standard Chartered The manufacturing PMI stayed below 50 for a second straight month in June as demand softened.

13:13 Markets focus on the US data – Societe Generale The two most-watched US economic surprise indices, published by Bloomberg and Citi, are showing a steady downward trend – i.e., a lot of negative surprises in the data, Societe Generale FX strategist Kit Juckes notes.

12:55 WTI corrects to near $82.30 ahead of US economy and weekly Oil inventory data West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, correct to near $82.30 from a two-month high of $83.77 in Wednesday’s European session.

12:53 EUR/USD to trade between 1.03 and 1.09 – Societe Generale The Euro (EUR) is back where it was before parliamentary elections were called, Societe Generale FX strategist Kit Juckes notes.

12:49 AUD/JPY is back in fashion – Societe Generale The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to find support in solid data, this morning in the form of retail sales, Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes notes.

12:48 Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.63% vs 2.6% Germany 10-y Bond Auction: 2.63% vs 2.6%

12:34 USD/CNH: The next resistance above 7.3100 is at 7.3200 – UOB Group The US Dollar (USD) could edge above 7.3100. The next resistance at 7.3200 is unlikely to come into view, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view, UOB Group analysts note.

12:24 USD/JPY: A break above 162.00 is highly possible – UOB Group The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range between 161.20 and 161.80.

12:14 NZD/USD: Set to trade with an upward bias – UOB Group The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade with an upward bias.

12:08 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:06 Mexican Peso pushed and pulled by different counterparts The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades according to the distinctive domestic factors affecting its key counterparts on Wednesday.

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in May Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in May

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -4.2% below forecasts (-4.1%) in May Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -4.2% below forecasts (-4.1%) in May

11:57 AUD/USD: The pair may edge above 0.6685 – UOB Group Underlying tone seems to be firming. The Australian Dollar (AUD) could edge above 0.6685 but is unlikely to threaten the major resistance at 0.6705.

11:46 GBP/USD: Sidelined with a chance to test 1.2720 – UOB Group Current price movements are likely part of a consolidation, likely between 1.2600 and 1.2720.

11:37 NZD/USD inches higher to near 0.6100 due to dovish Fedspeak NZD/USD appreciates for the second successive session as the US Dollar (USD) struggles due to the escalated speculations of Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in 2024.

11:33 EUR/USD: Major resistance is at 1.0785 – UOB Group The Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.0680 and 1.0785.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 52.3, above forecasts (51.7) in June United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 52.3, above forecasts (51.7) in June

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 52.1, above expectations (51.2) in June United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 52.1, above expectations (51.2) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.8) in June Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.8) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (52.6) in June: Actual (52.8) Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (52.6) in June: Actual (52.8)

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50.6) in June: Actual (50.4) Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50.6) in June: Actual (50.4)

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 53.1, below expectations (53.5) in June Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 53.1, below expectations (53.5) in June

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.8) in June: Actual (49.6) France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.8) in June: Actual (49.6)

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.2) in June: Actual (48.8) France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.2) in June: Actual (48.8)

10:45 Forex Today: Key data releases and FOMC Minutes point to volatile day ahead of US holiday Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 3: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Wednesday but the Japanese Yen trades at its weakest level in nearly four decades against the USD.

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (53.7) in June Italy HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (53.7) in June

10:39 Pound Sterling clings to gains ahead of US data, UK elections outcome The Pound Sterling (GBP) consolidates below the round-level resistance of 1.2700 in Wednesday’s London session after a sharp recovery from the three-day low of 1.2615 on Tuesday.

10:30 ADP Employment Change Preview: US private sector expected to add 160K new jobs in June On Wednesday, the United States (US) Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release its monthly report on private sector job creation for June.

10:24 USD/CAD falls toward 1.3750 due to improved Oil prices USD/CAD extends losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3780 during the early European session on Wednesday.

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 56.8, above forecasts (56.4) in June Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 56.8, above forecasts (56.4) in June

10:15 EUR/GBP trades with mild losses below 0.8500 ahead of ECB’s Lagarde speech The EUR/GBP cross trades on a softer note around 0.8470 during the early European session on Wednesday.