ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:30 Australian Dollar tumbles as AUD/USD eyes RBA after hitting multi-week low
The AUD/USD pair plunged to its lowest levels in over three weeks during Monday’s North American session, slipping toward the 0.6230 area as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed across the board.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD plunges to the 0.6230 zone during Monday's session, dragged by risk-off tone and strong Greenback.Markets brace for Tuesday’s RBA decision, with investors focused on forward guidance and inflation outlook.Bearish signals dominate across indicators; resistance builds near key short-term averages.The AUD/USD pair plunged to its lowest levels in over three weeks during Monday’s North American session, slipping toward the 0.6230 area as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed across the board. The bearish tone was fueled by resurgent US Dollar (USD) strength amid heightened trade tensions and broader risk aversion ahead of “Liberation Day.” With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision looming on Tuesday, investors showed little appetite to hold AUD, especially as technical indicators aligned to the downside. Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar slumps amid tariff jitters, all eyes on RBA AUD/USD sank sharply toward the low-0.6200s on Monday as traders dumped risk-sensitive currencies in favor of the safe-haven US Dollar. The US Dollar regained ground, climbing back to the 104.40 area on the DXY, bolstered by fears of incoming US tariffs and fragile sentiment. Traders remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s “Liberation Day,” when President Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal trade measures. Rising concern over China’s economic outlook continues to weigh on AUD, given Australia's export reliance on Chinese demand. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials maintain a patient stance, with policy expected to remain on hold for now despite inflationary risks from trade tensions. Investors await Tuesday’s RBA meeting, where the cash rate is likely to remain at 4.10%; forward guidance will be key. Recent data in Australia showed easing inflation and weakening labor demand, increasing the likelihood of policy easing in the coming months. CFTC data shows speculative short positions on AUD rising to multi-week highs, reflecting deepening bearish sentiment. Gold rallied to new record highs above $3,100 as market participants shifted away from equities and crypto into safer assets. Commodities-linked currencies like the Aussie remained under pressure despite hopes for further Chinese stimulus. Technical analysis AUD/USD extended its downside and traded near the 0.6230 region by the time of writing, marking a significant slide during the American session. The pair’s bearish structure remains intact, with momentum indicators confirming the pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a fresh red bar and a negative crossover, while the Awesome Oscillator adds to the bearish signal. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped toward the lower end of neutral territory, suggesting weakening momentum, while the Commodity Channel Index also printed a deeply negative reading. All major moving averages, including the 10-day EMA and the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs, slope downward, reinforcing the bearish setup. Immediate resistance is located near 0.6275, 0.6289, and 0.6290, while support appears limited below 0.6218, with the next key level eyed at 0.6187. Unless a shift in sentiment or policy triggers a turnaround, further losses remain on the table. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

23:20 Fed's Barkin: There is a risk on the employment side
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin hit the wires on Monday, cautioning that while US economic data remains overall firm, there are still risks present and cracks beginning to form in key data releases.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin hit the wires on Monday, cautioning that while US economic data remains overall firm, there are still risks present and cracks beginning to form in key data releases. Despite President Donald Trump's insistence that he "wants" the Fed to lower interest rates, the Trump administration is locking itself out of that opportunity as tariff policies make it impossible for the Fed to make accurate forecasts. Key highlights It's going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact. My base case is that it takes a while for tariff clarity. Suppliers are emboldened, say they will have to pass on higher prices. Consumers say they are tired of paying higher prices. I see some risk on the employment side from tariffs. I am not convinced higher prices won't be passed on, or that there won't be inflation. To cut rates, you need confidence on inflation. 1970s stagflation was characterized by out-of-whack inflation expectations; not seeing that now. Data right now is okay, there is a risk on the employment side. This is not a time for me to say how many rate cuts I have penciled in for this year. Now is not a time for forward guidance on policy. I'm nervous about inflation, and about employment. I am in no hurry on rate cuts. Balance sheet run off could be slower, for longer.

23:14 Fed's Williams: The economy does not have stagflation right now
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams noted on Monday that while the US economy isn't presenting evidence of "stagflation", a difficult period marked by rising inflation coupled with slumping economic stability, trade policy uncertainty remains a key issue for policymakers.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams noted on Monday that while the US economy isn't presenting evidence of "stagflation", a difficult period marked by rising inflation coupled with slumping economic stability, trade policy uncertainty remains a key issue for policymakers. Key highlights The full impact of tariffs can play out over long horizon. Tariffs will impact prices. We need an open mind on how long tariff impacts will last. Consumer goods should see quick pass-through from tariffs. Intermediate goods could see a slow impact from tariffs. There is definitely a risk to inflation being higher than Fed forecasts. My forecast is that inflation will be relatively stable this year with upside risks. My baseline view is inflation will be relatively stable. Uncertainty is very high right now, there are more concerns about a slowing economy. Growth and inflation risks are both very important. I will not predict odds of recession, economy is currently very solid amid a good job market. The economy right now is in a very good place. I won't discount weak survey and anecdotal data. Uncertainty appears to be impacting behavior. The Fed will not allow high inflation to take root. The economy does not have stagflation right now. I expect the economy will continue to grow, but slower than last year. Policy is really well positioned to navigate uncertainty. The Fed has the ability to collect more information before changing policy. I do not know exactly where monetary policy needs to be over rethe mainder of the years. The Fed needs to keep longer run inflation expectations anchored. Long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored today. Fed balance sheet draw down slowdown was natural next step.

22:40 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $34 despite falling
Silver price falls slightly after hitting a daily high of $34.46, trading at $34.02 amid a strong US Dollar and falling US Treasury yields.

22:05 Gold price blasts through $3,100 as trade war fears ignite safe-haven rush
Gold prints another record high on Monday, surpassing the $3,100 threshold for the first time and extends its gains to an all-time high of $3,127 before retreating somewhat.

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Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and the April 2 Liberation Day is lingering, with investors shifting risk-averse and flocking to the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,119, up more than 1%. Risk appetite deteriorates as traders await the announcement of additional tariffs on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs revealed that the odds of a recession in the United States (US) rose from 20% to 35%, primarily due to business and household pessimism about the outlook, as well as Washington's tolerance of a deeper economic slowdown. Trump’s comments on Sunday on Air Force One increased the chances that tariffs could be universal, instead of the 10 or 15 revealed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “Who told you 10 or 15? You might have heard it, but you didn’t hear it from me,” the President said. “You’d start with all countries. So let’s see what happens.” Therefore, Bullion prices exploded, even though US Treasury bond yields had recovered some ground, particularly the coupon of the 10-year T-note. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the buck against a basket of six currencies, climbs 0.24% to 104.25. On the data front, the Chicago PMI improved, despite remaining in contractionary territory for the sixteenth straight month. Ahead this week, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, as well as Nonfarm Payrolls figures. Daily digest market movers: Gold prices rises amid firm US Treasury yields The US 10-year T-note yield is flat at 4.257%. US real yields edge down two bps to 1.86%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. The Chicago PMI data for March rose by 47.6 points from 45.5 and exceeded forecasts of 45.2. Notably, it is the largest level since November 2023, yet it remains in contractionary territory for the sixteenth consecutive month. Some of the subcomponents improved, like Production, New Orders, Employment, and Order Backlogs. Supplier Deliveries, Inventories and Prices Paid dipped, according to the poll. Last week’s US inflation data held steady, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nevertheless, the risks of a recession drove market participants to price in over 74 basis points of easing toward the end of 2025, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade. In the geopolitics space, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 25%-50% on buyers of Russian oil, if Moscow blocks his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Wall Street’s banks had updated their Gold forecasts last week. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, and Bank of America identified $3,300 as the next target, according to a Kitco article. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price rallies past $3,050, eyes on $3,100 Gold’s rally expands. The yellow metal is up 18.96% so far this year, and due to uncertainty in the financial markets, the uptrend could continue. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, traders should be aware that, due to the aggressiveness of the move, the most extreme level is 80. The XAU/USD’s next resistance would be the psychological $3,150 and $3,200 on the upside. On the other hand, Bullion’s first support would be $3,100. A breach of the latter will expose the March 20 high turned support at $3,057, followed by the $3,000 figure. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:32 Forex Today: The RBA, US hard data and EMU flash CPI come to the fore
The Greenback regained traction and set aside two daily pullbacks in a row, finding support in the persistent risk-off sentiment as well as the omnipresent tariffs concerns ahead of “liberation day”.

The Greenback regained traction and set aside two daily pullbacks in a row, finding support in the persistent risk-off sentiment as well as the omnipresent tariffs concerns ahead of “liberation day”.Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 1: The US Dollar Index (DXY) regained composure and advanced to the 104.40 zone on the back of tariff fears and the generalised bearish tone in the risk-linked galaxy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI takes centre stage, seconded by the JOLTS Job Openings, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles.EUR/USD could not sustain the early bull run to the 1.0850 zone, easing some ground afterwards and eventually ending the day slightly on the defensive. The final HCOB Manufacturing PMI in Germany and the euro area will be published seconded by the preliminary Inflation Rate in the euro bloc, and speeches by the ECB’s Lane and Lagarde.GBP/USD added to Friday’s losses, revisiting the 1.2880 zone amid a decent advance in the US Dollar. The Nationwide House Prices are due, ahead of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.USD/JPY dropped to new multi-day lows before staging a strong comeback, reclaiming the 150.00 hurdle and beyond. The Unemployment Rate and the Tankan survey will be published along with the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI.AUD/USD tumbled to the 0.6230 region, or four-week lows amid tariff concerns and the uptick in the Greenback. The RBA is expected to keep its OCR unchanged at 4.10%, while additional data in Oz will feature Retail Sales, Commodity Prices, and the Ai Group survey.Prices of the American WTI rose markedly on Monday a decent advance and approached the $72.00 mark per barrel against the backdrop of tariff threats and potential US military action against Iran.Intense and unabated trade concerns lent extra legs to Gold prices, sending them to all-time peaks past the $3,100 mark per troy ounce. Silver prices fell to two-day lows, revisiting the sub-$34.00 level per ounce.

21:23 US Dollar flat as traders eye PMI and tariff fallout
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, trades flat on Monday and sees limited directional flow, hovering near 104.30.

20:37 Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs despite rising tariff stress
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rebounded 300 points on Monday, clawing back ground that was lost in last Friday’s stock rout.

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United States (US) President Donald Trump is poised to unleash his long-threatened yet still-ambiguous tariff packages on April 2, crimping investor sentiment throughout the market. The Dow Jones climbed seven-tenths of one percent, jumping back over the 41,700 level to kick off the new trading week. However, the rest of the major equity indexes continued to struggle. The Standard & Poor’s 500 eased by one-fifth of one percent to 5,570, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite backslid 200 points to shed a full percent. The Trump administration is barreling toward its self-styled deadline to kick off a wide swath of tariffs against most of the US’s trading partners. US President Donald Trump continues to brand April 2 as “Liberation Day”, and continues to insist that his administration’s plans to impose, among other various tariff threats, a 25% tariff on functionally all vehicles sold in the US and sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on any country that has its own import restrictions on US goods. Additional tariffs are expected on the European Union (EU) and Canada, as well as any country that purchases Venezuelan Crude Oil. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) loom large later this week, slated to release on Friday. This week’s NFP could draw significant investor attention as the US economy grapples with signs of an economic slowdown, and will also serve as a bellwether labor print for after the US administration’s tariffs come into place.Read more stock news: Apple readies large-scale revamp of health offeringsDow Jones price forecast The Dow Jones’ Monday recovery has snapped a three-day losing streak, pumping the brakes on near-term bearish flows. However, things aren’t exactly rosy in the viewfinder: the DJIA is still trading south of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 42,080, and the major equity index is still down nearly 3% from the last swing high into 42,800. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

20:06 Mexican Peso falters as tariff fears and recession concerns weigh
The Mexican Peso (MXN) begins the week on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD), mainly due to a deteriorating risk appetite as investors brace for the release of US tariffs on April 2, the US Liberation Day.

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At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.45, up 0.50%. Tariffs continue to drive price action as investors shifted to a risk-averse stance, which also weighs on high-beta currencies like the Mexican Peso. Last week, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 9%, while hinting that a further cut of the same magnitude looms. Regarding this, JP Morgan supports another 50 bps cut due to the risks of an imminent recession, according to Steven Palacio, an analyst at the bank. “It's inevitable that Mexico will go through a recession because the tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding their implementation are occurring in an economic context that was already in sharp decline,” Palacio said. Meanwhile, Banxico’s Governor, Victoria Rodriguez Ceja, said the central bank will remain attentive to US trade policies and their impact on the country, with a primary focus on inflation, as she stated in an interview with El Financiero. Across the northern border, the Chicago PMI data improved but remained in contractionary territory for the sixteenth consecutive month. The Greenback shrugged off an increase of recession odds in the US, according to Goldman Sachs, with odds rising from 20% to 35% due to pessimism amongst households and businesses. White House comments that the administration will tolerate an economic slowdown did not help. This week, the Mexican economic schedule will feature Business Confidence, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and Gross Fixed Investment figures. In the US, traders are focusing on the April 2 Trump tariff announcement, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, JOLTS Job Openings and Nonfarm Payrolls. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso falls as Banxico’s signals more cuts coming Mexico’s Business Confidence in February was 50.4. A reading below that level would indicate that companies are becoming pessimistic about the economy, with the result being its lowest level since May 2021. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory for eight straight months at 47.6 in February. A March print beneath this would suggest the economic slowdown is deeper than foreseen. The Chicago PMI data for March increased by 47.6 points from 45.5 and exceeded the forecast of 45.2. Traders had priced the Fed to ease policy by 75 basis points (bps) throughout the year, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso treads water as USD/MXN bulls target 20.50 The USD/MXN continues to gather steam after clearing the confluence of the 100 and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near 20.35/36, which paved the way for 20.47, a new two-week high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers remain in control, with sufficient room to drive the exchange rate higher. Therefore, the USD/MXN first resistance would be 20.50. If surpassed, the next ceiling would be the March 4 peak of 20.99, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high of 21.28. Conversely, a drop below 20.35/36 paves the way to test the 20.00 mark. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

18:58 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair eases toward mid-range despite holding bullish structure
The EUR/USD pair slightly declined on Monday’s session after the European close, holding near the 1.08 zone and staying confined within its daily range.

EUR/USD was seen around the 1.08 area after Monday's European session, easing slightly within its daily range.Despite today’s retreat, the pair maintains a bullish structure supported by longer-term moving averages.Support lies at the 1.0730 zone, while the pair must reclaim 1.0830–1.0840 to revive upside momentum.The EUR/USD pair slightly declined on Monday’s session after the European close, holding near the 1.08 zone and staying confined within its daily range. While the price action leans mildly bearish intraday, broader technical signals continue to suggest underlying bullish support, especially from longer-term indicators. The MACD has generated a fresh sell signal, but the broader context still favors bulls as the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages maintain an upward slope. Daily chart The short-term technical picture shows a mixed setup. The 14-period Relative Strength Index stands at 57.6, hovering in neutral territory, while the Stochastic oscillator also sits neutrally near 35.5. Exponential moving averages remain favorable: the 10-day EMA at 1.0811 and the 30-day EMA at 1.0723 both point higher, signaling buyers may still have control if the pair holds above key support levels. The immediate support rests near 1.0793, followed by 1.0773 and the 200-day SMA around 1.0730, which forms a crucial floor for bulls. On the upside, resistance appears around 1.0811, 1.0823, and 1.0828 — levels that must be cleared to revive upside conviction. Overall, the EUR/USD keeps a cautiously bullish outlook, though intraday price action may remain choppy as long as the pair consolidates around the mid-1.08s.

18:27 Silver markets are still in a structural deficit – TDS
The rise in the XAU/XAG ratio reflects idiosyncratic strength in Gold, as opposed to weakness in Silver, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

The rise in the XAU/XAG ratio reflects idiosyncratic strength in Gold, as opposed to weakness in Silver, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Next buying impulse to hit the markets in the near term "We are in the final months of the silversqueeze end-game. The last time Silver prices sustainably broke $35/oz, it took less than 6 weeks for prices to flirt with $50/oz." "Lease rates continue to rise north of 5%, discretionary traders remain underpositioned, and Silver markets are still in a structural deficit — it's only a matter of time until the next buying impulse hits. In the current context in which liquidity is critically scarce, we expect the end-game to result in substantial upside convexity in flat prices."

18:22 Gold: Downside risks are subsiding – TDS
Gold is melting higher, but downside risks are subsiding, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Gold is melting higher, but downside risks are subsiding, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. There is little scope to sell Gold "Macro fund liquidations relating to risk constraints associated to the decline in equity markets have led them to hold their smallest position size since Gold prices traded nearly $1000/oz lower (Mar 2024). CTAs won't sell in size until we draw down more than $200/oz from current levels." "Risk parity funds are benefiting from the strong diversification benefit between stocks/bonds, limiting the risk of deleveraging. China is on the bid, as evidenced by the strength in the Shanghai premium. The latter buying impulse follows Chinese lifeco membership to the SGE last week, alongside a simultaneous rise in buying activity from Chinese ETFs." "While some participants are concerned that prices are now at trend channel highs that have historically led to sell-offs, we argue that there is little scope to sell. Instead, expect that macro funds will be forced to FOMO back into Gold, keeping dips shallow and strong price action in play."

18:06 CNY: The state helps state banks – Commerzbank
It was announced over the weekend that the Chinese government plans to inject fresh capital into its major state-owned banks.

It was announced over the weekend that the Chinese government plans to inject fresh capital into its major state-owned banks. Four major banks (Bank of Communications, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China and China Construction Bank) will receive a total of RMB 500 billion in capital injections from the Ministry of Finance. This is not entirely new news: RMB 500 billion in new government bonds had already been earmarked for this purpose in the government's budget, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. CNY is likely to remain under pressure "The capital injection should enable banks to lend more, which could continue to provide some cyclical tailwind to the economy. Sentiment in the Chinese economy has brightened somewhat since the announcement of some support measures last September, as shown by this morning's PMIs. The overall rate of improvement has continued. The balance of payments data published on Friday afternoon are also encouraging." "The government is spending RMB 500 billion to increase its stake in state-owned banks and, according to Bloomberg, is willing to pay a premium of between 8.8% and 21.5% on Friday's share prices for these shares. This effectively subsidizes the banking sector to lend to the industrial sector in particular. It further strengthens the supply side in China, while private demand remains under-supported (especially structurally)." "The CNY is likely to remain under pressure, as the weak structural development suggests a persistently low interest rate environment, and thus the interest rate differential with the US, but also with Europe, is likely to remain negative. In the short term, the CNY should be supported by improving economic data."

18:06 GBP/USD dips as trade war tensions mount ahead of US tariff Liberation Day
The Pound Sterling loses ground versus the US Dollar as US April 2 Liberation Day gets closer, in which President Donald Trump is expected to announce additional tariffs to the ones already enacted since March 2.

18:04 Colombia National Jobless Rate dipped from previous 11.6% to 10.3% in February
Colombia National Jobless Rate dipped from previous 11.6% to 10.3% in February

17:38 NZD/USD plunges to near 0.5660 as US Trump tariffs loom large
The NZD/USD pair is down almost 1% to near 0.5660 during North American trading hours on Monday.

17:30 United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to -16.3 in March from previous -8.3
United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to -16.3 in March from previous -8.3

17:11 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Tumbles ahead of RBA’s interest rate decision
The AUD/USD pair plummets to near 0.6235 in Monday’s North American session, the lowest level seen in more than three weeks.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD plunges to near 0.6235 as the Australian Dollar underperforms its peers.The RBA is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.1% on Tuesday.The US Dollar rises ahead of April 2, when US President Trump will release planned reciprocal tariffs.The AUD/USD pair plummets to near 0.6235 in Monday’s North American session, the lowest level seen in more than three weeks. The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its peers across the board ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Investors expect the RBA to leave its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at their current levels of 4.1%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy guidance by the RBA. Meanwhile, caution among market participants ahead of so-called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, when United States (US) President Donald Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs, has dampened the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) appeal. Investors expect Trump's tariffs to have a significant impact on the Chinese economic outlook, given that the world’s second largest nation has the highest trade surplus against the US. Fresh escalation in uncertainty over the Chinese economic outlook weighs on the Australian Dollar, given the heavy reliance of Australia on its exports to China. During North American trading hours, the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher after recovering intraday losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds to near 104.20 after posting a fresh 10-day low around 103.75 earlier in the day. AUD/USD breaks below the upward-sloping border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation around 0.6275 on the daily timeframe, which is plotted from the February low of 0.6087. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the February 21 high of 0.6408. An ascending triangle formation indicates a volatility contraction but it expands significantly after a breakdown of the same. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trades higher near 0.6290, suggesting a downside trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI falls below the same. More downside would appear if the pair breaks below the March 4 low of 0.6187 towards the February low of 0.6087, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000. On the flip side, a sustenance move above the March 18 high of 0.6390 will open doors to the December 5 high of 0.6456 and the round-level resistance of 0.6500. AUD/USD daily chart Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

16:48 United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 47.6, above expectations (45.4) in March
United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 47.6, above expectations (45.4) in March

16:33 JPY: Waiting for new tariffs to unfold – Rabobank
Japan appears to be emerging from a 30-year battle with deflation driven by an economy expanding at a pace above its potential growth rate.

Japan appears to be emerging from a 30-year battle with deflation driven by an economy expanding at a pace above its potential growth rate. That said, the strength of this morning’s release of Japanese February industrial production data at 2.5% y/y can not be taken as a firm signal of an accelerating trend in activity, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. USD/JPY is likely to end the year lower "It is widely assumed that the fastest monthly growth data for Japanese production in nearly a year was related to a push to meet strong demand for manufactured goods such as autos before new US tariffs on the sector took effect. Last week’s release of the Summary of Opinions at the March BoJ policy meeting highlighted the view that 'Uncertainties regarding the policies of the new U.S. administration will have an impact on business and household sentiment around the world. Therefore, uncertainties regarding the global economy have heightened.'" "Tariff fears clearly have implications for expectations regarding BoJ policy rates. Although economists’ surveys have indicated a preference for July for the next 25 bp BoJ rate hike, market implied policy rates currently suggest another move is not quite fully priced in on a 6-month view. Although US President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2 should bring some more clarity, hopes that there will be some space for negotiation combined with the likelihood of counter tariffs suggest that significant scope for both uncertainty and market volatility remains." "In recent weeks, the JPY gave back some of this year’s gains with tariff concerns likely a contributing factor to this move. Despite the pullback, our central view is that USD/JPY is likely to end the year lower. We maintain a year end forecast of USD/JPY 145 and see downside risk to this view."

16:29 GBP steady on the day – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is steady, trading under 1.30 and also showing notable relative resilience in an environment of trade-related risk aversion, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is steady, trading under 1.30 and also showing notable relative resilience in an environment of trade-related risk aversion, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. PM Starmer's talks with Trump seem to be 'productive' "Second-tier data releases offer little in terms of fundamentals, and this week’s final PMIs are expected to confirm the (sub-50) contraction in manufacturing and modest growth in services (53.2) offered in the preliminaries. PM Starmer held 'productive' talks in trade with President Trump over the weekend." "GBP is trading slightly below Friday’s close and quietly consolidating in the middle of its recent range roughly bound between the upper-1.28 area and 1.30. Momentum continues to soften as the RSI drifts toward neutral (50) levels following its recent push to overbought levels around 70."

16:26 EUR trading in tight range – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is trading in a tight range near 1.08 and showing some notable resilience in an environment of broad-based risk aversion driven by trade-related concerns, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is trading in a tight range near 1.08 and showing some notable resilience in an environment of broad-based risk aversion driven by trade-related concerns, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR is hovering around 1.08 "Sentiment is likely to continue to be a dominant driver of the near-term price action in EUR, with a focus on tariff developments in the US. Fundamentally, interest rate differentials remain supportive for the EUR limiting the extent of potential near-term weakness." "EUR is trading down a modest 0.2% and hovering around 1.08. The near-term range is roughly bound between the mid-1.07s and mid-1.08 area. The continued moderation in momentum (RSI) hints to near-term consolidation."

16:23 USD/CAD dips under 1.43 remain well supported on the charts – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is softer on the session, edging back through the low 1.43 area to the mid-1.43s.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is softer on the session, edging back through the low 1.43 area to the mid-1.43s. President Trump said last week that tariffs are coming for Canada but both he and PM Carney put a positive spin on the call they had late last week on trade. PM Carney apparently communicated to provincial leaders that tariffs imposed on Canada may come at the lower end of the scale and may not be applied broadly across the economy, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD slips despite hopes that Canada may avoid worst of tariffs "For now though, the CAD is facing a waiting game ahead of Wednesday’s announcement and then the gaming out of how Canada might be able to negotiate its way out of tariffs. The CAD is holding up a little better than its commodity cousins, the AUD and NZD, which are underperforming broadly across the major currency space, weighed by broader markets sentiment." "Canada releases trade and jobs data this week; soft jobs data may tilt risks towards more BoC easing but policy makers will want to assess tariffs and their impact before pulling the trigger. USDCAD’s estimated fair value remains steady in the low 1.41 range, leaving spot more than one standard deviation above its estimated equilibrium." "USD/CAD gains from last week’s low and USD support (near 1.4235) represents a failed test of the 100-day MA (1.4280 today) and tips near-term trends towards a little more USD strength. USD dips under 1.43 remain well supported on the charts, amid still USD-bullish trend sentiment. Intraday gains through 1.4330 look set to extend back towards 1.44, or possibly higher (to 1.4450/60) in the short run."

16:20 USD mixed, havens bid ahead of tariffs – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is mixed and market sentiment is broadly weaker as investors seek havens ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement.

The US Dollar (USD) is mixed and market sentiment is broadly weaker as investors seek havens ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement. Asian stocks fell sharply overnight and European markets are lower, led by tariff-exposed companies. US equity futures are in the red, rounding off a miserable quarter for US markets. Bonds are broadly higher, while the JPY is outperforming its G10 peers and gold jumped to new high above $3127/oz as investors sought refuge from the anticipated fall out of the April 2nd tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD mixed as markets focus on April 2nd tariff announcement "Details of the tariff plan remain vague and there have been signs recently that the administration was still debating how to proceed with tariff implementation. White House aide and trade hawk Navarro commented over the weekend that auto tariffs would raise USD100bn per year, with other tariffs raising and additional USD600bn/year—which would rather imply a very stiff, global tariff regime is set to be imposed." "While tariffs are the key focus for markets in the next few days, there are some important data updates due over the course of the week from the US—ISM and PMI data as well as Friday’s NFP report. Data may reflect sluggish growth momentum amid tariff uncertainty and raise US stagflation concerns across markets. While the USD is trading mixed on the session and off its early session low with high beta FX underperforming, headwinds are stiffening amid tariff risks." "The DXY fell back from last Wednesday’s high near 104.7 to close net lower on the week through Friday. Price action is leaning bearish overall for the DXY, with bearish momentum building across short-, medium– and long-term oscillators. In essence, the index is still consolidating after steadying from its mid-March low but the charts suggest renewed, broad USD losses are a risk if the DXY cracks consolidation support at 103.75."

15:06 Germany annual CPI inflation declines to 2.2% in March
Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 2.2% on a yearly basis in March from 2.3% in February, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Monday.

Annual inflation in Germany declined slightly to 2.2% in March.EUR/USD continues to trade in daily range above 1.0800.Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 2.2% on a yearly basis in March from 2.3% in February, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Monday. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching the market expectation.The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in Germany, the European Central Bank's preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.3% on a yearly basis after rising 2.6% in February. This reading came in below analysts' estimate of 2.4%.Market reactionEUR/USD showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen trading marginally lower on the day at 1.0820.

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 2.3%
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 2.3%

15:00 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands): 20.9B (February) vs -16.42B
South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands): 20.9B (February) vs -16.42B

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4% (March) vs previous 0.5%
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4% (March) vs previous 0.5%

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in March
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in March

14:56 US Dollar flat despite market turmoil ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, lacks direction and trades almost flat on Monday.

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US President Trump confirmed that all countries will be targeted. The US Dollar Index trades stable around 104.10, though no safe-haven flows in the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, lacks direction and trades almost flat on Monday. The DXY is completely left in the dark while Equities are selling off, Bond prices are spiking higher, and Gold has hit a fresh all-time high above $3,100 earlier in the day. The move comes after United States (US) President Donald Trump reiterated on Sunday at Airforce One that all countries will fall under reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday's 'Liberation Day', Bloomberg reports. One thing that became clear last week is that the US Dollar (USD) is moving depending on US economic data, and fears of stagflation or recession are weakening the Greenback. Thus, Monday's focus will shift to March’s Chicago Purchase Manager’s Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Contractions and slow downs in those economic data points could trigger another leg lower in the DXY. Daily digest market movers: Data getting important for confirmationAt 13:45 GMT, the Chicago Purchase Manager’s Index (PMI) will be released. Expectations are for 45.4, just one tick lower from the previous 45.5. At 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Manufacturing Business Index for March. No forecast is available, with the previous reading at -8.3. Equities are diving lower with losses between 1.0% to 2.0% crossing from Asia over Europe and into US futures. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 82.1%. For June’s meeting, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 81.2%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.20%, a substantial drop lower and the reason why the Fedwatch Tool sees elevated chances for a rate cut in June. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: One thing is clearThe US Dollar Index (DXY) provided an answer last week and this Monday to one question that was on traders’ minds. Tariffs clearly do not impact the US Dollar. Instead, the US economic data looks to be impacting the Greenback, as seen on Friday with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and elevated inflation expectations reading, which pushed the US Dollar lower. The recession or stagflation fear no longer supports a stronger US Dollar, and more evidence of stagflation could push the DXY lower from here. A return to the 105.00 round level could still occur in the coming days, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance at 104.94. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the upward momentum. On the downside, the 104.00 round level is the first nearby support, although it looks bleak after being tested on Friday and again this Monday. If that level does not hold, the DXY risks falling back into that March range between 104.00 and 103.00. Once the lower end at 103.00 gives way, watch out for 101.90 on the downside. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:45 USD/JPY is trading around 149.00 for now – BBH
USD/JPY was down at a multi-day low under 149.00 on heighted risk aversion and narrower US-Japan bond yield spreads, but it somewhat recovered above that hurdle, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD/JPY was down at a multi-day low under 149.00 on heighted risk aversion and narrower US-Japan bond yield spreads, but it somewhat recovered above that hurdle, BBH's FX analysts report. GPIF to maintain its current portfolio composition for the next five years "Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) confirmed it will maintain its current portfolio composition for the next five years. GPIF has a 25% asset allocation across domestic and foreign stocks and bonds. However, the deviation limits to the target allocation will be narrower at +/-9% vs. +/-11% previously. JPY implications are negligible."

14:38 EU gas prices continue to decline – ING
In gas, natural gas prices in Europe extended declines for a second straight session in the early trading session today, after falling around 4.7% week-on-week as of last Friday, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

In gas, natural gas prices in Europe extended declines for a second straight session in the early trading session today, after falling around 4.7% week-on-week as of last Friday, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note. Gas prices under pressure as heating season ends "Prices came under pressure as the heating season came to an end, and the market focus shifted towards the inventory refill for next winter. Along with that, warmer weather forecasts and strong flows of liquefied natural gas are further weighing on prices." "Meanwhile, the new storage season kicks off on 1 April, while concerns over the pace of storage injections still persist, given the lower level of inventories. The latest GIE data shows that storage is 33.7% full as of 29 March, below the five-year average of 45% and lower than the 58.7% levels seen at the same stage last year." "China has issued its second batch of export quota for clean products, with 12.8mt of exports allocated to refiners. The export quota is down 8.6% compared to last year. In its first quota, China allowed refiners to export around 19mt of clean products, similar to the first quota for 2024."

14:34 USD/CNH looks bearish on the day – BBH
USD/CNH is drifting lower. China economic activity edged up in March, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD/CNH is drifting lower. China economic activity edged up in March, BBH's FX analysts report. Outlook set to remain unimpressive "The composite PMI increased to a three-month high at 51.4 vs. 51.1 in February driven by a pick-up in manufacturing and non-manufacturing growth momentum. The manufacturing PMI rose 0.3 points to a one-year high at 50.5 (consensus: 50.4) and the non-manufacturing PMI improved 0.4 points to three-month high at 50.8 (consensus: 50.6)." "However, the growth outlook will remain unimpressive as long as policymakers fail to address the root cause of weak consumption spending activity: low household income levels, high precautionary savings, and high levels of household debt."

14:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD flattens around $34, Trump’s tariffs in focus
Silver price (XAG/USD) wobbles around $34.00 in Monday’s European session.

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The white metal trades flat as investors have sidelined to have a clear view on global economic outlook, with United States (US) President Donald Trump to unveil reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. Donald Trump is set to announce reciprocal levies on so-called “Liberation Day” after which tariffs be equivalent charged by other nations on the US for same products. The impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to be significant on the global economic growth. The appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, increases amid heightening global economic tensions. Investors expect Trump tariffs will also weaken the US economic growth, given that the impact of higher tariffs will be borne by US importers. This will also result in a resurgence in inflationary pressures. Fears of US economic risks and accelerating price pressures in the near term have forced federal Reserve (Fed) officials to maintain a restrictive monetary policy guidance. On Friday, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly expressed that her confidence is easing in her expectations that there will be two interest rate cuts this year. Her confidence on two interest rate cuts this year shaken after the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.8% compared to estimates of 2.7% and the former release of 2.6%. Historically, firm expectations for the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate stance weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Silver technical analysis Silver price advances toward the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.30 continues to provide support to the Silver price. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum. Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier. Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

13:25 Oil prices are under pressure – ING
Oil prices opened lower this morning with ICE Brent extending its declines from last week, hovering around $73.5/bbl.

Oil prices opened lower this morning with ICE Brent extending its declines from last week, hovering around $73.5/bbl. This weakness comes after Trump said he would consider 'secondary tariffs' on Russian oil and those who buy it if a ceasefire with Ukraine can’t be reached, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note. Oil prices opened extend its declines from last week "Drilling activity in the US slowed over the last week. The latest rig data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active US oil rigs fell by two over the week to 484 as of 28 March 2025. This is the lowest level since the week ending on 14 February 2025, with the oil rig count down by 22 compared to this time last year." "The total rig count (oil and gas combined) stood at 592 over the reporting week, slightly down from 593 a week earlier and 4.7% lower compared to the same time last year. Primary Vision’s frac spread count, which gives an idea of completion activity, also decreased by six over the week to 209."

13:20 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Extends winning streak amid caution ahead of Liberation Day
The USD/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the third day on Monday.

13:19 AUD: RBA hold amid tariff noise – ING
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces rates at 0430 BST tomorrow and we expect a hold, in line with consensus and market pricing (less than 10% implied probability of a cut).

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces rates at 0430 BST tomorrow and we expect a hold, in line with consensus and market pricing (less than 10% implied probability of a cut). February inflation came in cooler than expected, but a trimmed mean CPI at 2.7% remains too hot to deliver back-to-back cuts, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. AUD and NZD are the big losers in the G10 "Remember, the February cut was followed by an inflation rebound that prompted a hawkish re-adjustment of the policy tone by the RBA. It is likely Governor Michele Bullock wants to avoid a repeat of that and will require at least another encouraging inflation print before easing policy again. Expect a cautious message today, with plenty of focus on the uncertainty generated by tariffs." "AUD and NZD have been the big losers in the G10 in the second half of March as pressure from Chinese yuan proxy trades intensified. We don’t see much respite in sight given our relatively pessimistic view on the US trade policy to be rolled out in April. We are still targeting a move to 0.620 in AUD/USD before we can think about calling for the bottom."

13:16 Copper continues its retreat– ING
Copper continues retreating from a nine-month high amid broader risk-off sentiment, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Copper continues retreating from a nine-month high amid broader risk-off sentiment, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note. Tariffs are bearish for Copper "Copper continues its retreat from a nine-month high amid broader risk-off sentiment as markets are awaiting the White House’s so-called reciprocal tariffs due on Wednesday. Tariffs are bearish for Copper and other industrial metals in the context of slowing global growth and keeping inflation higher for longer."

13:14 USD: Waiting to be lifted by tariffs – ING
The US is due to announce a new historic round of tariffs on trading partners on Wednesday, which President Trump has now famously dubbed 'liberation day', ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

The US is due to announce a new historic round of tariffs on trading partners on Wednesday, which President Trump has now famously dubbed 'liberation day', ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. Support around 104 is more likely than another leg lower "What the FX market is indicating through spot, options, and positioning is a greater focus on the domestic implications for the US rather than on the countries being targeted with tariffs. There may also be a lack of trust in Trump’s ability to keep tariffs in place for very long, given the inflation and activity risks. Our view is a bit more pessimistic from a sentiment perspective." "We see some upside potential for the dollar this week as markets may have turned a bit too sanguine on the tariff view, and Trump has suggested over the weekend that he will impose tariffs on all countries. We think the risks are skewed towards a stronger dollar and yen and weaker European currencies alongside the Australian and New Zealand dollars." "We could start seeing some support for the greenback today as defensive positions are built into Wednesday’s tariff event. We think some support around 104 is more likely than another leg lower in DXY."

13:00 Gold hits fresh all-time high ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline
Gold price (XAU/USD) shots higher at the start of the trading week and hovers around $3,120 at the time of writing on Monday.

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Traders brace for reciprocal tariffs after Trump committed implementation for all countries. Gold traders above $3,120, far ahead of several analysts’ calls. Gold price (XAU/USD) shots higher at the start of the trading week and hovers around $3,120 at the time of writing on Monday. The move comes as a last-minute flight to safety after the United States (US) President Donald Trump confirmed that Tuesday's reciprocal tariffs will apply to all countries. It seems that any hopes for some last-minute easing or paring back are off the table ahead of the deadline on Wednesday. Meanwhile, analysts from several major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ramping up its forecast to $3,300 by year-end. The lender cited higher-than-expected central bank demand and strong inflows into bullion-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). In the meantime, US yields gapped lower on Monday and are flirting with a break below the low of March at 4.172%.Daily digest market movers: Point of no returnOption pricing in Gold is not becoming more expensive, and it is even becoming cheaper. This comes as markets see the Gold price higher for longer. This is not like Coffee futures earlier this year, where a supply shock sent Option prices spiralling higher. Seeing the drop in Option prices for Gold contracts could mean more upside is available with current levels becoming the new normal, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool sees a tilt in the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as US yields are dropping lower this Monday. The tilt goes in favor of cutting rates, with chances for a rate cut in May increasing to 18.6% compared to near 11% one week ago. However, a rate cut in June looks almost inevitable, with only a 16.5% chance for rates to remain at current levels. This Monday, there is a very clear pattern ahead of reciprocal tariffs, with Gold rising, Bond prices shooting higher, and the US Dollar (USD) softening in this domino chain, while Equities sell off. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Already thereThus far, most of the analysts’ calls issued in recent weeks have already been reached, leaving analysts now to re-issue higher levels ahead. However, traders and market participants should not forget that this will not be a straight line higher, and profit-taking will occur along the way. On the upside, the daily R1 resistance at $3,096 and the R2 resistance at $3,108 have already been broken in the steep rally earlier on Monday. From here, the big psychological figures are coming into play, with $3,130 and $3,150 as the next upside targets. On the downside, R1 and R2 resistances should now support Gold’s price, followed by the daily Pivot Point at $3,075. Further down, the S1 support at $3,063 is quite far, though it could be tested if a headline comes out that pares back the earlier move. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:59 USD/JPY: A pullback is taking shape – Societe Generale
USD/JPY rebound petered out near the confluence of the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA at 151.30/151.60, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

USD/JPY rebound petered out near the confluence of the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA at 151.30/151.60, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. USD/JPY can fall towards March lows near 146.50 "A pullback is taking shape after this test. The pair has breached the short-term ascending channel within which recent rebound evolved; this denotes possibility of resumption in downtrend. Recent pivot low of 148.15/147.50 is first layer of support. Failure to defend this can lead to continuation in decline towards March lows near 146.50 and perhaps even towards projection at 145."

12:54 Gold rises above $3,100 – ING
Gold rose above $3,100/oz for the first time to hit a fresh record high at the start of a new week, ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, beating its previous record high hit just last Friday, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Gold rose above $3,100/oz for the first time to hit a fresh record high at the start of a new week, ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, beating its previous record high hit just last Friday, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note. Gold is up 19% year-to-date "Gold is one of the best-performing major commodities this year, up 19% year-to-date, driven by trade frictions, economic uncertainty, central bank buying, and inflows into ETF holdings. President Trump’s unpredictable trade policy has been the key driver for Gold so far in 2025. We see uncertainty over trade and tariffs continuing to buoy Gold prices."

12:49 Pound Sterling consolidates against US Dollar as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs take centre stage
The Pound Sterling (GBP) flattens against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.2940 in Monday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling trades sideways near 1.2940 against the US Dollar as investors await US President Trump to unveil reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.Goldman Sachs sees higher risks of a US recession amid Trump tariff jitters.The BoE is expected to follow a moderate monetary expansion cycle this year.The Pound Sterling (GBP) flattens against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.2940 in Monday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair trades flat as investors turn cautious ahead of the so-called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, when United States (US) President Donald Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on his trading allies. The imposition of reciprocal levies by US President Trump will significantly impact global economic growth. Goods attracting higher duties will become less competitive globally, and their respective firms will be forced to lower their prices significantly. Such a scenario will force them to dump their products in other nations. Analysts at Barclays said, "We expect the countries with the largest trade deficits in goods with the US and with the highest tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers could potentially be the target of the reciprocal tariffs.” As to their theory, the European Union (EU), China, Canada, India, and Japan will face higher tariffs from the US. Financial market participants believe that the US economy will also face economic risks in the near term due to Trump’s tariffs. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have revised the chances of a recession in the US to 35% from their prior expectations of 20%. Their upward revision for recession risks has been based on a sharp “deterioration in household and business confidence”, and statements from the White House officials indicating “greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness” in pursuit of their policies. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling remains broadly firm The Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers on Monday, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), whose safe-haven appeal has increased amid fears of Trump’s tariffs. The British currency gains as investors expect Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to have a nominal impact on the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic outlook. On Thursday, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that they are working intensely these next few days to try and secure a “good deal for Britain”. The optimism that the impact of Trump’s tariffs will be very limited on the UK is also driven by Trump’s comments in late February that he is not sure about imposing tariffs on the UK. Trump also sounded confident that a deal could be made as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was "very nice". Meanwhile, upbeat UK Retail Sales data for February has also strengthened the Pound Sterling. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, surprisingly rose by 1% month-on-month compared to an expected 0.3% decline. Additionally, hopes of a moderate policy-easing cycle by the Bank of England (BoE) has also kept the Pound Sterling on the frontfoot. Market participants expect the BoE to cut interest rates only two times more this year. The BoE has already reduced borrowing rates once in 2025. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2930 The Pound Sterling continues to wobble around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, near 1.2930 against the US Dollar. Additionally, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to provide support to the pair around 1.2890. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 60.00 after turning overbought above 70.00. Should a fresh bullish momentum come into action if the RSI resumes the upside journey after holding above the 60.00 level Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2610 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:37 EUR: A bit expensive into tariff event – ING
EUR/USD at 1.084 days before the US is expected to announce harsh tariffs on the EU is a testament to the FX market’s hyper forward-looking tendency, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD at 1.084 days before the US is expected to announce harsh tariffs on the EU is a testament to the FX market’s hyper forward-looking tendency, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. Euro seems to be embedding too much optimism "The drivers of the pair’s rally have been a re-rating of EU growth expectations based on fiscal spending, and pessimism on US activity. Neither of those factors has been endorsed by hard data just yet, and we remain reluctant to chase EUR/USD higher into the tariff announcement. Our models suggest EUR/USD continues to trade around 0.5% above its short-term fair value, and at -155bp, the 2-year swap rate gap remains too wide to justify 1.09-1.10." "It's clear that for a sustainable decline in EUR/USD, the dollar needs domestic support through data stabilisation, but the euro equally seems to be embedding too much optimism, and our preference remains for a weakening in the pair in the coming weeks. Should the US opt for high tariffs on all EU products this week, EUR/USD could be driven back towards the 1.070 support. We’ll watch EUR/JPY as another key gauge of tariff risk."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:06 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:03 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session.

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2% in March from previous 1.6%
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2% in March from previous 1.6%

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 1.6% in March
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 1.6% in March

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 2.1% in March from previous 1.7%
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 2.1% in March from previous 1.7%

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in March
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in March

12:00 Greece Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -5.4% to 1.9% in January
Greece Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -5.4% to 1.9% in January

11:31 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 4.1% to 3.8% in February
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 4.1% to 3.8% in February

11:31 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) came in at £4.6B, below expectations (£4.9B) in February
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) came in at £4.6B, below expectations (£4.9B) in February

11:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) fell from previous 1.3% to 0.2% in February
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) fell from previous 1.3% to 0.2% in February

11:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 65.481K below forecasts (66K) in February
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 65.481K below forecasts (66K) in February

11:30 United Kingdom Consumer Credit fell from previous £1.74B to £1.358B in February
United Kingdom Consumer Credit fell from previous £1.74B to £1.358B in February

11:23 EUR/USD flattens ahead of Trump’s planned reciprocal tariff announcement
EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.0830 in Monday’s European session.

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The major currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) falls for the third trading day in a row ahead of the planned reciprocal tariff announcement by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh 10-day low around 103.75. Financial market participants expect that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will be unfavorable for economic growth and will reignite inflation across the globe, including the US. According to the Washington Post, the President keeps telling his advisers to increase trade measures, and in recent days, he has brought back the idea of a universal tariff that would be applicable to most imports, no matter which country they come from. The Washington Post also showed that US President Trump expressed regret for not imposing broader tariffs in his first term and was confident that levies would be a win for the US. Higher import duties will bring back manufacturing jobs and add trillions in government revenue. This week, investors will also focus on a slew of US economic data, such as the ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and labor market-related indicators, which will influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates at their current levels in the May policy meeting. However, the probability for an interest rate cut in June has increased to 83.5% from 65.6% recorded a week ago. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD to be influenced by flash German HICP data In Monday’s session, the Euro (EUR) will be influenced by preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for March, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. German HICP is estimated to rise by 2.4% year-over-year compared to the 2.6% increase seen in February. On Friday, France and Spain's March preliminary inflation data showed that price pressures rose at a slower-than-expected pace. The impact of German inflation is expected to be limited on market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook as investors anticipate a resurgence in inflation in the Eurozone due to Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. Investors expect President Trump to impose significant tariffs on the Eurozone as he has criticized the European Union (EU) for not buying American goods. In 2024, Ireland and Germany were the fourth and fifth, respectively, largest nations having trade surplus with the US, according to the World Population Review. Trump's higher import duties on the Eurozone would significantly impact its economic growth. During European trading hours, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that any ensuing trade war would be a lose-lose scenario and lower Eurozone growth by at least 0.3%. Last week, Trump also imposed 25% tariffs on imports of foreign cars and light trucks, which will come into effect on Wednesday. In response, the EU Commission warned of retaliatory measures but later agreed to provide concessions to the US to secure the partial removal of tariffs that have already hit and are expected to increase further on April 2, Bloomberg reported. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD consolidates around 1.0830 EUR/USD trades indecisively around 1.0830 at the start of the week. The near-term outlook of the pair remains firm as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0773. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over, but the upside bias is intact. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:12 ECB’s Panetta: The fight against inflation cannot be considered over
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta said on Monday, “the fight against inflation cannot be considered over.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta said on Monday, “the fight against inflation cannot be considered over.”Further comments"Must carefully monitor all factors that could hinder return to 2% target.""Weak euro area economy and geopolitical tensions contributing to containing inflation.""But increased uncertainty, especially contradictory US policy announcements, calls for caution on rates."Market reactionAt the press time, EUR/USD is trading modestly flat at around 1.0825.

11:06 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) declined to 2.2% in March from previous 2.5%
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) declined to 2.2% in March from previous 2.5%

11:06 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) down to 0.2% in March from previous 0.5%
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) down to 0.2% in March from previous 0.5%

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in March from previous 2.3%
Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in March from previous 2.3%

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in March
Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in March

11:03 Spain Current Account Balance dipped from previous €1.3B to €1.2B in January
Spain Current Account Balance dipped from previous €1.3B to €1.2B in January

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in March
Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in March

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY): 2.5% (March) vs 2.3%
Germany Saxony CPI (YoY): 2.5% (March) vs 2.3%

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) unchanged at 1.9% in March
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) unchanged at 1.9% in March

11:00 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) down to 0.3% in March from previous 0.4%
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) down to 0.3% in March from previous 0.4%

11:00 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March)
Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March)

11:00 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in March
Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in March

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March) vs previous 2.4%
Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March) vs previous 2.4%

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 0.4%
Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 0.4%

10:19 Lagarde speech: We're almost at our inflation target
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that “we're almost at our inflation target.”

10:01 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

09:57 USD/CHF extends downside below 0.8800 amid trade war concerns
The USD/CHF pair extends the decline to around 0.8790 during the early European session on Monday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD).

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US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce on Wednesday will include all countries, not just a smaller group of 10 to 15 countries with the biggest trade imbalances. The concerns over an escalating global trade war, along with fears of a recession in the US, exert some selling pressure on the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly noted on Friday that she expects two rate cuts this year, but with robust economic indicators, Fed officials can hold off on cutting rates until they evaluate how businesses adapt to tariff costs. According to the CME FedWatch tool, swaps traders continued to price in about two quarter-point rate cuts this year, with the first seen coming in July.

Meanwhile, Israel has resumed airstrikes in Gaza and deployed troops in Syria, while the US stepped up its attack on Houthi rebels in Yemen. Additionally, Trump said on Sunday that he was "pissed off" at Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding geopolitical risks. Any signs of escalation could boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the CHF. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

09:49 South Africa Private Sector Credit fell from previous 4.59% to 3.68% in February
South Africa Private Sector Credit fell from previous 4.59% to 3.68% in February

09:34 Forex Today: Tariff fears lift Gold to new record peak
Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 31:

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The European economic calendar will feature preliminary March inflation data from Germany. In the second half of the day, markets will pay close attention to trade-war headlines and geopolitical developments.US President Donald Trump's advisers are considering imposing global tariffs of up to 20% on all imports into the US, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend. The Trump administration is expected to share the details of its new tariff agenda on Wednesday. Additionally, Trump said on Sunday that if he feels that Moscow is trying to block his attempts to end the war in Ukraine, he would impose secondary tariffs of 25%-50% on buyers of Russian oil. Reflecting the risk-averse market environment, US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.4% and 1.2%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) Index trades marginally lower on the day below 104.00 in the European morning. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' regional manufacturing survey and Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index data for March will be published in the second half of the day. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.12% -0.34% -0.33% -0.22% -0.16% 0.37% -0.43% EUR 0.12% -0.34% -0.74% -0.07% -0.06% 0.54% -0.29% GBP 0.34% 0.34% 0.02% -0.35% 0.25% 0.89% -0.06% JPY 0.33% 0.74% -0.02% 0.10% 0.14% 0.72% -0.14% CAD 0.22% 0.07% 0.35% -0.10% 0.12% 0.60% -0.23% AUD 0.16% 0.06% -0.25% -0.14% -0.12% 0.61% -0.22% NZD -0.37% -0.54% -0.89% -0.72% -0.60% -0.61% -0.76% CHF 0.43% 0.29% 0.06% 0.14% 0.23% 0.22% 0.76% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following Friday's sharp decline, USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure on Monday and loses more than 0.6% on the day below 149.00. In the Asian session on Tuesday, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare will release the Unemployment Rate data for February.Following a six-day decline, EUR/USD gained traction and registered gains on Thursday and Friday to end the previous week on a firm footing. The pair stays relatively quiet and fluctuates above 1.0800 in the European morning. The data from Germany showed earlier in the day that Retail Sales increased by 0.8% on a monthly basis in February, coming in better than the market expectation for a no change.GBP/USD closed the previous week marginally higher despite struggling to build on Thursday's gains. The pair holds its ground to start the European session and trades above 1.2950.AUD/USD struggles to gain traction on Monday and trades below 0.6300. In the Asian session on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce monetary policy decisions. Markets expect the RBA to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.1%. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

09:33 India Gold price today: Gold stretches higher amid trade war fears
Amid heightened global trade war tensions and fears of a US recession, induced by speculation surrounding "higher and broader tariffs" from US President Donald Trump this week, Gold price in India tracked the record-setting rally in Comex Gold price on Monday.

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At the time of writing, the Gold price is trading at 8,574.54 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, advancing from Friday's close of INR 8,480.11, according to data calculated by FXStreet. Meaanwhile, Gold price increased to INR 100,011.10 per tola, up sharply from INR 98,910.39 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,574.54 10 Grams 85,738.77 Tola 100,011.10 Troy Ounce 266,696.00 Global Market Movers: Gold price continues to scale higher as trade jitters boost safe-haven demand US President Donald Trump rattled markets last week by imposing a 25% levies on all non-American cars and light trucks ahead of the so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. Adding to this, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that the Trump administration is considering higher trade tariffs against a broader range of countries, pushing the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high during the Asian session on Monday. Trump said on Sunday that he was very angry and pissed off at Russian President Vladimir Putin, and threatened massive tariffs on Russian oil and potential bombings in Iran. Trump also lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and warned that he would face big problems if he backed out of the critical rare earth minerals deal. This further weighs on investors' sentiment and contributes to the global flight to safety. Meanwhile, US data released on Friday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in February and 2.5% from a year ago – in line with market expectations. However, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.4% increase for the month. This marked the biggest monthly gain since January 2024 and lifted the 12-month inflation rate to 2.8% during the reported month. Additional details revealed that Consumer Spending accelerated 0.4% following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in January, while Personal Income posted a 0.8% rise during the reported month. Separately, a survey from the University of Michigan showed that consumers' 12-month inflation expectations soared to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in March, which further benefits the precious metal's hedge against rising prices. This comes on top of persistent worries about slowing US economic growth and fuels stagflation fears, dragging the US Dollar lower for the third straight day and further offering support to the XAU/USD pair. The commodity reacts little to China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which showed that the Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.5 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.8 in March. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

09:03 German Retail Sales leap 4.9% YoY in February vs. 2.9% previous
Retail Sales in Germany rose 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) in February, following the 0.2% increase recorded in January, according to official data released by Destatis on Monday.

09:01 Germany Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2.9% to 4.9% in February
Germany Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2.9% to 4.9% in February

09:00 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0%) in February
Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0%) in February

09:00 Germany Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 3.1% to 3.6% in February
Germany Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 3.1% to 3.6% in February

09:00 Germany Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in February: Actual (0.3%)
Germany Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in February: Actual (0.3%)

09:00 South Africa Private Sector Credit: 4.59% (February)
South Africa Private Sector Credit: 4.59% (February)

08:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD climbs above $34.00 as Trump’s tariffs boost safe-haven demand
The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $34.35 during the early European session on Monday.

08:31 WTI consolidates below $69.00; traders seem non-committed amid mixed cues
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices attract some sellers following an Asian session uptick to mid-$69.00s, albeit the downtick lacks bearish conviction.

08:04 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) registered at 2.4% above expectations (-1.4%) in February
Japan Housing Starts (YoY) registered at 2.4% above expectations (-1.4%) in February

08:04 Japan Annualized Housing Starts rose from previous 0.774M to 0.805M in February
Japan Annualized Housing Starts rose from previous 0.774M to 0.805M in February

08:00 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) declined to -3.3% in February from previous 12.2%
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) declined to -3.3% in February from previous 12.2%

07:52 Gold price climbs beyond $3,100, sets fresh record high amid trade woes
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts strong follow-through buying for the third consecutive day and climbs beyond the $3,100 mark, hitting a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price attracts safe-haven flows for the third straight day amid rising trade tensions.Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD and also lend support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Overbought conditions on the daily chart now warrant some caution for bullish traders. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts strong follow-through buying for the third consecutive day and climbs beyond the $3,100 mark, hitting a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Monday. Worries over US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, due to be announced on Wednesday, and their impact on the global economy continue to weigh on investors' sentiment. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks drive safe-haven flows toward the precious metal and remain supportive of the positive move. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated for the third straight day on the back of expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariff-drive US economic slowdown. This overshadows Friday data, pointing to signs of rising inflation in the US, and turns out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding Gold price. The XAU/USD bulls, however, could pause for a breather amid overbought conditions, warranting caution before positioning for further gains. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to scale higher as trade jitters boost safe-haven demand US President Donald Trump rattled markets last week by imposing a 25% levies on all non-American cars and light trucks ahead of the so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. Adding to this, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that the Trump administration is considering higher trade tariffs against a broader range of countries, pushing the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high during the Asian session on Monday. Trump said on Sunday that he was very angry and pissed off at Russian President Vladimir Putin, and threatened massive tariffs on Russian oil and potential bombings in Iran. Trump also lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and warned that he would face big problems if he backed out of the critical rare earth minerals deal. This further weighs on investors' sentiment and contributes to the global flight to safety. Meanwhile, US data released on Friday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in February and 2.5% from a year ago – in line with market expectations. However, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.4% increase for the month. This marked the biggest monthly gain since January 2024 and lifted the 12-month inflation rate to 2.8% during the reported month. Additional details revealed that Consumer Spending accelerated 0.4% following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in January, while Personal Income posted a 0.8% rise during the reported month. Separately, a survey from the University of Michigan showed that consumers' 12-month inflation expectations soared to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in March, which further benefits the precious metal's hedge against rising prices. This comes on top of persistent worries about slowing US economic growth and fuels stagflation fears, dragging the US Dollar lower for the third straight day and further offering support to the XAU/USD pair. The commodity reacts little to China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which showed that the Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.5 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.8 in March. Traders now look forward to this week's important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, overbought conditions might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets and cap the yellow metal. The fundamental backdrop, however, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the upside. Gold price needs to consolidate amid overbought conditions before traders start positioning for further gains From a technical perspective, Friday's sustained breakout above the previous all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 region, was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains above the 70 mark for the third straight day and points to overstretched conditions. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so. Meanwhile, any corrective pullback below the Asian session low, around the $3,076 area, now seems to find decent support near the aforementioned resistance breakpoint. This is followed by the $3,036-3,035 support zone, below which the Gold price could accelerate the slide back towards retesting the $3,000 psychological mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:41 NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5700 as Trump’s tariffs loom
The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5705 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD drifts lower to 0.5705 in Monday’s Asian session. Trump plans to announce new "reciprocal" tariffs on Wednesday, weighing on the Kiwi. The official Chinese Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5 in March vs. 50.2 prior; non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8. The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5705 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders brace for the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s new tariff policy on Wednesday.

Trump is set to announce new "reciprocal" tariffs on Wednesday to tackle perceived trade imbalances, potentially adding more tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has already placed a total of 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports since taking office in January, blaming Beijing for failing to do enough to curb the flow of chemicals used to make the deadly drug fentanyl into the US. Escalating trade tensions between the US and China might exert some selling pressure on the Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.

The encouraging Chinese economic data might help limit the NZD’s losses. Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that the country’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.5 in March from 50.2 in February. The reading came in line with the market consensus. Additionally, the Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 in March from the previous reading of 50.4, better than the estimation of 50.5.

Furthermore, the Chinese government has pledged more fiscal stimulus, increased debt issuance and further monetary easing. China’s finance ministry will also inject 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) into four of the nation’s largest state banks following through on Beijing’s earlier effort to strengthen the financial sector. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

06:11 USD/CAD consolidates in a range above 1.4300 mark amid mixed cues
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest bounce from the monthly low touched last Wednesday and kicks off the new week on a subdued note amid mixed cues.

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Fed rate cut bets and concerns about a slowing economy continue to weigh on the Greenback.Subdued Crude Oil prices undermine the Loonie and support the pair amid the risk-off mood. The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest bounce from the monthly low touched last Wednesday and kicks off the new week on a subdued note amid mixed cues. Spot prices, however, hold above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support and currently trade around the 1.4300 mark, nearly unchanged for the day. The US Dollar (USD) selling bias remains unabated for the third successive day on Monday as the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies continues to fuel worries about a tariff-driven US economic slowdown. This remains supportive of the growing market acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume its rate-cutting cycle and keep the USD bulls on the defensive, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the USD bulls largely shrug off signs of rising inflation in the US. In fact, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index showed on Friday that the core gauge that excludes volatile food and energy prices rose 0.4% in February, marking the biggest monthly gain since January 2024 and lifting the yearly rate to 2.8%. Moreover, the University of Michigan's 12-month inflation expectations soared to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in March. However, the prevalent risk-off environment, ahead of US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs due to be announced on Wednesday, helps limit the downside for the safe-haven Greenback. Trump last week rattled markets by imposing a 25% tariff on all non-American cars and light trucks. Adding to this, a report over the weekend said that Trump will consider higher tariffs against a broader range of countries, which will take effect from April 2. Furthermore, hopes for a Ukraine peace deal keep Crude Oil prices below a multi-week high touched last Wednesday, which further seems to undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and lend some support to the USD/CAD pair. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for the resumption of the currency pair's recent well-established downtrend from the vicinity of mid-1.4500s, or the monthly swing high touched on March 4. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:44 Japanese Yen advances to one-week high against USD amid the risk-off mood
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart for the second consecutive day on Monday and hits a one-week high during the Asian session on Monday.

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Firming BoJ rate hike expectations and the risk-off mood benefit the safe-haven JPY. Recession fears weigh on the USD, which further exerts downward pressure on USD/JPY.The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart for the second consecutive day on Monday and hits a one-week high during the Asian session on Monday. The global risk sentiment continues to be weighed down by concerns about US President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2 and geopolitical risks, which turn out to be key factors driving flows towards the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, Friday's strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo – Japan's capital city – reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates in May. This marks a big divergence in comparison to the growing market acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariff-driven US economic slowdown and provide an additional boost to the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen benefits from global flight to safety amid rising trade tensions and BoJ rate hike bets US President Donald Trump rattled markets last week by imposing a 25% tariff on all non-American cars. Moreover, a report over the weekend said that Trump will consider higher tariffs against a broader range of countries, which will take effect from April 2. This comes on top of worries about slowing economic growth and continues to weigh on investors' sentiment, driving safe-haven flows toward the Japanese Yen. Trump said on Sunday that he was pissed off at Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Adding to this, Trump warned that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would face big problems as he is trying to back out of the critical rare earth minerals deal. Data released on Friday showed that consumer inflation in Tokyo – Japan's capital city – remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% annual target and backs the case for further interest rate hikes. Adding to this, BoJ's Summary of Opinions from the March meeting revealed a consensus to continue raising rates if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, keeping hopes alive for more interest rate hikes this year. From the US, the Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in February and 2.5% from a year ago, both in line with market expectations. However, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.4% increase for the month – marking the biggest monthly gain since January 2024 and pushing the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%. Additional details revealed that Consumer Spending accelerated 0.4% following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in January, while Personal Income posted a 0.8% rise during the reported month. Separately, a survey from the University of Michigan showed that consumers' 12-month inflation expectations soared to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in March, stocking stagflation fears and undermining the US Dollar. The markets reacted little to the official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged higher to 50.5 in March from 50.2 previous. Furthermore, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.8 in March versus February’s 50.4 reading. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said this Monday that they agree with the US that excessive moves on forex are undesirable. This, however, does little to dent a strong bullish sentiment surrounding the JPY or hinder the USD/JPY pair's fall to the 149.00 mark. Traders now look to this week's US macro data scheduled at the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, for a fresh impetus. USD/JPY decline could accelerate once the 149.00 confluence support is broken decisively From a technical perspective, the 149.00 round figure represents the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and nears the 50% retracement level of the recent move up from the multi-month low. Given that oscillators on hourly/daily charts are holding in negative territory, a convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. The USD/JPY pair might then accelerate the downfall towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, around the 148.35 region, before dropping to the 148.00 mark en route to the next relevant support near the 147.70 area. On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo., around the 149.45 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a bout of a short-covering could allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will suggest that the corrective pullback from a multi-week high touched on Friday has run its course and pave the way for further gains. Spot prices might then surpass the 150.60-150.65 intermediate hurdle and climb to the 151.00 mark before aiming to retest the monthly swing high, around the 151.30 region. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:36 GBP/USD attracts some buyers above 1.2950 on weaker US Dollar
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.2965 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

05:27 Gold price conquers $3,100 for the first time ever on tariff war fears
The record rally in Gold price remains unabated as buyers conquer the $3,100 threshold for the time on record. Heightening fears of a potential global trade war and stagflation in the United States (US) intensify safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value, Gold.

The record rally in Gold price remains unabated as buyers conquer the $3,100 threshold for the time on record. Heightening fears of a potential global trade war and stagflation in the United States (US) intensify safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value, Gold.developing story ....

04:56 Japan’s Kato: Have agreed with the US that excessive moves on forex are undesirable
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Monday, they “have agreed with the US that excessive moves on forex are undesirable.”

04:40 Australian Dollar climbs after upbeat Chinese PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers some lost ground on Monday, bolstered by the upbeat Chinese economic data.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar gains ground in Monday’s early Asian session. China's NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in March; Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.8. The RBA interest rate decision and US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be the highlights on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers some lost ground on Monday, bolstered by the upbeat Chinese economic data. The latest data released on Monday showed that China’s NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.5 in March, compared to 50.2 in February. The reading came in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 in March versus 50.4 prior and stronger than the 50.5 expected.

However, the upside for the pair might be limited due to global trade concerns ahead of a planned announcement on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump on reciprocal tariffs. Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision on Tuesday. The Australian central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged at the April meeting as it waits out an election campaign fought on cost-of-living issues and girds for the economic impact of a US-driven upheaval in global trade. On the US docket, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March will be released later on Tuesday. Australian Dollar gains traction ahead of RBA rate decision Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate the RBA will stand pat at 4.1% and stick with a cautious stance after easing for the first time in four years last month. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 2.5% YoY in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. This reading matched the market expectation and January's reading. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, jumped 2.8% on a yearly basis in February, above the estimation and January's increase of 2.7% (revised from 2.6%). On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index increased 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. The US Personal Income increased by 0.8% on a monthly basis in February, while Personal Spending rose by 0.4% during the same reported period. Swaps traders continued to price in about two quarter-point rate cuts this year, with the first seen coming in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that she expects two rate cuts this year, but with robust economic indicators, policymakers can hold off on cutting rates until they evaluate how businesses adapt to tariff costs. Australian Dollar remains stuck within a symmetrical triangle pattern, but bearish outlook remains in place AUD/USD trades in positive territory on the day. The pair remains capped within the symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily timeframe. The bearish bias remains intact, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, indicating neutral momentum in the near term.

The first upside barrier for AUD/USD emerges at 0.6330, the high of March 26. A strong move above this level could see a rally to 0.6355, the 100-day EMA. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 0.6375, the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern.

On the downside, the low of March 24 at 0.6262 acts as an initial support level for the pair. If bearish momentum builds under the mentioned level, it could trigger more selling and drag AUD/USD down toward 0.6225, the lower limit of the triangle pattern. The additional downside filter to watch is 0.6186, the low of March 4. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:33 China's March NBS Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.5, Non-Manufacturing PMI jumps to 50.8
China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged higher to 50.5 in March from 50.2 in February, the official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday.

04:31 China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (50.5) in March: Actual (50.8)
China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (50.5) in March: Actual (50.8)

04:31 China NBS Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (50.5) in March
China NBS Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (50.5) in March

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1782 vs. 7.1752 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1782 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1752 and 7.2593 Reuters estimate.

03:48 EUR/USD looks to build on recovery from multi-week low; holds steady below mid-1.0800s
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following an Asian session dip to the 1.0800 neighborhood and looks to build on its bounce from a multi-week low touched last Thursday.

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Friday’s US PCE data fueled stagflation fears and continues to weigh on the buck.Trade war fears could limit USD losses and cap the pair ahead of German CPI.The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following an Asian session dip to the 1.0800 neighborhood and looks to build on its bounce from a multi-week low touched last Thursday. The uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction, with spot prices currently trading near the 1.0835 region, unchanged for the day. The US Dollar (USD) remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day amid the risk of stagflation in the US and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. The USD bulls seem rather unimpressed by signs of rising inflation, which might hold back the Federal Reserve (Fed) from resuming its rate-cutting cycle in June. In fact, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index released on Friday showed that the core gauge that excludes volatile food and energy prices rose 0.4% in February, marking the biggest monthly gain since January 2024 and lifting the yearly rate to 2.8%. Adding to this, the University of Michigan survey showed that 12-month inflation expectations soared to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years during March. This overshadowed Consumer Spending data, which accelerated 0.4% last month after a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in January. This comes on top of the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policies and should allow the Fed to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach towards easing monetary policy further. The outlook, however, does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the Greenback or exert any downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The shared currency, on the other hand, seems to draw support from easing EU-US trade war concerns. In fact, the European Commission (EC) signaled that it has prepared concessions for the US to escape Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs, which he will announce on Wednesday. However, the prevalent risk-off mood could offer some support to the safe-haven buck and cap the upside for the EUR/USD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the prelim German consumer inflation figures for some impetus. The fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, supports prospects for a further appreciating move for the pair. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. The CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Mon Mar 31, 2025 12:00 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: -Previous: 2.3%Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

03:32 Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) remains unchanged at 6.5% in February
Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) remains unchanged at 6.5% in February

03:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) meets expectations (0.5%) in February
Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) meets expectations (0.5%) in February

03:18 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to near record high below $3,100 amid global uncertainty
The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $3,090 during the early Asian session on Monday.

03:02 Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.5% in February
Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.5% in February

03:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence: 57.5 (March) vs previous 58.4
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence: 57.5 (March) vs previous 58.4

02:54 Japan Large Retailer Sales: 2% (February) vs previous 4%
Japan Large Retailer Sales: 2% (February) vs previous 4%

02:51 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 0.3% in February from previous 2.2%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 0.3% in February from previous 2.2%

02:50 US President Donald Trump weighs broader, higher tariffs - WSJ
US President Donald Trump's administration is hurrying to determine the specifics of its new tariff agenda ahead of its self-imposed deadline of Wednesday, considering possibilities after promising to remake the American economy with a slew of new levies, the WSJ citing unnamed sources.

02:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) came in at 1.4%, below expectations (2%) in February
Japan Retail Trade (YoY) came in at 1.4%, below expectations (2%) in February

02:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (2.3%) in February
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (2.3%) in February

02:30 US President Donald Trump threatens tariffs on Russian oil if Moscow blocks Ukraine deal
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was "pissed off" at Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

02:12 AUD/USD edges lower below 0.6300 on global trade concerns
The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6280 during the early Asian session on Monday.

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Last week, Trump issued an order imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports, exacerbating global trade tensions. These aggressive trade measures are expected to strain ties with key trading partners, even before his proposed retaliatory tariffs on April 2. The fears of escalating trade tensions exert some selling pressure on the Aussie against the US Dollar (USD).

On the other hand, fresh stimulus measures from China could boost China-proxy Aussie, as China is a major trading partner with Australia. China’s finance ministry stated that it will inject 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) into four of the nation’s largest state banks, following through on Beijing’s earlier effort to strengthen the financial sector, per Bloomberg.

The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation, rose 0.4% MoM in February, compared to 0.3% in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. On an annual basis, the core PCE climbed 2.8% in February versus 2.7% prior (revised from 2.6%).

The report indicated sticky inflation in the US economy. However, his aggressive trade policy could raise concerns that the economy may fall into stagflation or even recession, which might weigh on the Greenback. Swaps traders continued to price in about two quarter-point rate cuts this year, with the first seen coming in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:00 South Korea Industrial Output Growth above forecasts (0.8%) in February: Actual (1%)
South Korea Industrial Output Growth above forecasts (0.8%) in February: Actual (1%)

02:00 South Korea Service Sector Output: 0.5% (February) vs -0.8%
South Korea Service Sector Output: 0.5% (February) vs -0.8%

02:00 South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) registered at 7% above expectations (2%) in February
South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) registered at 7% above expectations (2%) in February

01:38 China to inject $69 billion into four big banks to strengthen financial sector
China’s finance ministry will inject 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) into four of the nation’s largest state banks, following through on Beijing’s earlier effort to strengthen the financial sector, per Bloomberg.

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23:30 Australian Dollar tumbles as AUD/USD eyes RBA after hitting multi-week low The AUD/USD pair plunged to its lowest levels in over three weeks during Monday’s North American session, slipping toward the 0.6230 area as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed across the board.

23:20 Fed's Barkin: There is a risk on the employment side Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin hit the wires on Monday, cautioning that while US economic data remains overall firm, there are still risks present and cracks beginning to form in key data releases.

22:40 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $34 despite falling Silver price falls slightly after hitting a daily high of $34.46, trading at $34.02 amid a strong US Dollar and falling US Treasury yields.

22:05 Gold price blasts through $3,100 as trade war fears ignite safe-haven rush Gold prints another record high on Monday, surpassing the $3,100 threshold for the first time and extends its gains to an all-time high of $3,127 before retreating somewhat.

21:32 Forex Today: The RBA, US hard data and EMU flash CPI come to the fore The Greenback regained traction and set aside two daily pullbacks in a row, finding support in the persistent risk-off sentiment as well as the omnipresent tariffs concerns ahead of “liberation day”.

21:23 US Dollar flat as traders eye PMI and tariff fallout The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, trades flat on Monday and sees limited directional flow, hovering near 104.30.

20:37 Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs despite rising tariff stress The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rebounded 300 points on Monday, clawing back ground that was lost in last Friday’s stock rout.

20:06 Mexican Peso falters as tariff fears and recession concerns weigh The Mexican Peso (MXN) begins the week on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD), mainly due to a deteriorating risk appetite as investors brace for the release of US tariffs on April 2, the US Liberation Day.

18:58 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair eases toward mid-range despite holding bullish structure The EUR/USD pair slightly declined on Monday’s session after the European close, holding near the 1.08 zone and staying confined within its daily range.

18:27 Silver markets are still in a structural deficit – TDS The rise in the XAU/XAG ratio reflects idiosyncratic strength in Gold, as opposed to weakness in Silver, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

18:22 Gold: Downside risks are subsiding – TDS Gold is melting higher, but downside risks are subsiding, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

18:06 CNY: The state helps state banks – Commerzbank It was announced over the weekend that the Chinese government plans to inject fresh capital into its major state-owned banks.

18:06 GBP/USD dips as trade war tensions mount ahead of US tariff Liberation Day The Pound Sterling loses ground versus the US Dollar as US April 2 Liberation Day gets closer, in which President Donald Trump is expected to announce additional tariffs to the ones already enacted since March 2.

18:04 Colombia National Jobless Rate dipped from previous 11.6% to 10.3% in February Colombia National Jobless Rate dipped from previous 11.6% to 10.3% in February

17:38 NZD/USD plunges to near 0.5660 as US Trump tariffs loom large The NZD/USD pair is down almost 1% to near 0.5660 during North American trading hours on Monday.

17:30 United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to -16.3 in March from previous -8.3 United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to -16.3 in March from previous -8.3

17:11 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Tumbles ahead of RBA’s interest rate decision The AUD/USD pair plummets to near 0.6235 in Monday’s North American session, the lowest level seen in more than three weeks.

16:48 United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 47.6, above expectations (45.4) in March United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 47.6, above expectations (45.4) in March

16:33 JPY: Waiting for new tariffs to unfold – Rabobank Japan appears to be emerging from a 30-year battle with deflation driven by an economy expanding at a pace above its potential growth rate.

16:29 GBP steady on the day – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is steady, trading under 1.30 and also showing notable relative resilience in an environment of trade-related risk aversion, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

16:26 EUR trading in tight range – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is trading in a tight range near 1.08 and showing some notable resilience in an environment of broad-based risk aversion driven by trade-related concerns, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

16:23 USD/CAD dips under 1.43 remain well supported on the charts – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is softer on the session, edging back through the low 1.43 area to the mid-1.43s.

16:20 USD mixed, havens bid ahead of tariffs – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is mixed and market sentiment is broadly weaker as investors seek havens ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement.

15:06 Germany annual CPI inflation declines to 2.2% in March Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 2.2% on a yearly basis in March from 2.3% in February, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Monday.

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 2.3% Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 2.3%

15:00 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands): 20.9B (February) vs -16.42B South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands): 20.9B (February) vs -16.42B

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4% (March) vs previous 0.5% Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4% (March) vs previous 0.5%

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in March Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in March

14:56 US Dollar flat despite market turmoil ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, lacks direction and trades almost flat on Monday.

14:45 USD/JPY is trading around 149.00 for now – BBH USD/JPY was down at a multi-day low under 149.00 on heighted risk aversion and narrower US-Japan bond yield spreads, but it somewhat recovered above that hurdle, BBH's FX analysts report.

14:38 EU gas prices continue to decline – ING In gas, natural gas prices in Europe extended declines for a second straight session in the early trading session today, after falling around 4.7% week-on-week as of last Friday, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

14:34 USD/CNH looks bearish on the day – BBH USD/CNH is drifting lower. China economic activity edged up in March, BBH's FX analysts report.

14:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD flattens around $34, Trump’s tariffs in focus Silver price (XAG/USD) wobbles around $34.00 in Monday’s European session.

13:25 Oil prices are under pressure – ING Oil prices opened lower this morning with ICE Brent extending its declines from last week, hovering around $73.5/bbl.

13:20 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Extends winning streak amid caution ahead of Liberation Day The USD/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the third day on Monday.

13:19 AUD: RBA hold amid tariff noise – ING The Reserve Bank of Australia announces rates at 0430 BST tomorrow and we expect a hold, in line with consensus and market pricing (less than 10% implied probability of a cut).

13:16 Copper continues its retreat– ING Copper continues retreating from a nine-month high amid broader risk-off sentiment, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

13:14 USD: Waiting to be lifted by tariffs – ING The US is due to announce a new historic round of tariffs on trading partners on Wednesday, which President Trump has now famously dubbed 'liberation day', ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

13:00 Gold hits fresh all-time high ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline Gold price (XAU/USD) shots higher at the start of the trading week and hovers around $3,120 at the time of writing on Monday.

12:59 USD/JPY: A pullback is taking shape – Societe Generale USD/JPY rebound petered out near the confluence of the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA at 151.30/151.60, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

12:49 Pound Sterling consolidates against US Dollar as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs take centre stage The Pound Sterling (GBP) flattens against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.2940 in Monday’s European session.

12:37 EUR: A bit expensive into tariff event – ING EUR/USD at 1.084 days before the US is expected to announce harsh tariffs on the EU is a testament to the FX market’s hyper forward-looking tendency, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:06 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:03 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session.

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2% in March from previous 1.6% Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2% in March from previous 1.6%

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 1.6% in March Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 1.6% in March

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 2.1% in March from previous 1.7% Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 2.1% in March from previous 1.7%

12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in March Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in March

12:00 Greece Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -5.4% to 1.9% in January Greece Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -5.4% to 1.9% in January

11:31 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 4.1% to 3.8% in February United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 4.1% to 3.8% in February

11:31 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) came in at £4.6B, below expectations (£4.9B) in February United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) came in at £4.6B, below expectations (£4.9B) in February

11:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) fell from previous 1.3% to 0.2% in February United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) fell from previous 1.3% to 0.2% in February

11:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 65.481K below forecasts (66K) in February United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 65.481K below forecasts (66K) in February

11:30 United Kingdom Consumer Credit fell from previous £1.74B to £1.358B in February United Kingdom Consumer Credit fell from previous £1.74B to £1.358B in February

11:23 EUR/USD flattens ahead of Trump’s planned reciprocal tariff announcement EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.0830 in Monday’s European session.

11:12 ECB’s Panetta: The fight against inflation cannot be considered over European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta said on Monday, “the fight against inflation cannot be considered over.”

11:06 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) declined to 2.2% in March from previous 2.5% Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) declined to 2.2% in March from previous 2.5%

11:06 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) down to 0.2% in March from previous 0.5% Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) down to 0.2% in March from previous 0.5%

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in March from previous 2.3% Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in March from previous 2.3%

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in March Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in March

11:03 Spain Current Account Balance dipped from previous €1.3B to €1.2B in January Spain Current Account Balance dipped from previous €1.3B to €1.2B in January

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in March Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in March

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY): 2.5% (March) vs 2.3% Germany Saxony CPI (YoY): 2.5% (March) vs 2.3%

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) unchanged at 1.9% in March Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) unchanged at 1.9% in March

11:00 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) down to 0.3% in March from previous 0.4% Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) down to 0.3% in March from previous 0.4%

11:00 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March) Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March)

11:00 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in March Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.4% in March

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March) vs previous 2.4% Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.3% (March) vs previous 2.4%

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 0.4% Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 0.4%

10:19 Lagarde speech: We're almost at our inflation target European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that “we're almost at our inflation target.”

10:01 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

09:57 USD/CHF extends downside below 0.8800 amid trade war concerns The USD/CHF pair extends the decline to around 0.8790 during the early European session on Monday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD).

09:49 South Africa Private Sector Credit fell from previous 4.59% to 3.68% in February South Africa Private Sector Credit fell from previous 4.59% to 3.68% in February

09:34 Forex Today: Tariff fears lift Gold to new record peak Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 31:

09:03 German Retail Sales leap 4.9% YoY in February vs. 2.9% previous Retail Sales in Germany rose 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) in February, following the 0.2% increase recorded in January, according to official data released by Destatis on Monday.

09:01 Germany Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2.9% to 4.9% in February Germany Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2.9% to 4.9% in February

09:00 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0%) in February Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0%) in February