Forex News Timeline

USD/CAD has reached our end of year target of 1.40 and we fully expect the pair to reach the 1.42 level we highlighted for Q1, Rabobank’s FX analysts Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note. USD/CAD likely to reach 1.46 next year “That said, given two main drivers we outline below, we now expect further extension to the upside with USD/CAD likely to reach 1.46 next year, just shy of the highs from 2016 and 2020.We have seen a decrease in USD/CAD correlations of late but fully expect a resumption of interest rate differential driven moves in 2025.” “Our proprietary FX 1m vol index spiked on November 5th up to a high of 8.27%, and has since depressed to 6.92%. USD/CAD 1m implied volatility has moved in kind, spiking on November 5th, peaking at 6.22%. Vols have declined since that juncture, down to 5.81%.” “We expect a further widening of US-CA rate differentials will be the primary driver of further upside for USD/CAD deep into 2025. Non-commercial speculators have been net short CAD since August of 2023. Net shorts are currently sitting at -182,389, 3.26 standard deviations below the 5yr average (-22,041).”  

EUR/JPY declined by 0.47% to 163.10 in Tuesday's session.Price rallied above 163.00 after buyers stepped in following a decline to 161.50, but indicators remain deeply negative.The pair might continue shedding ground as long as it remains below the 20-day SMA.The EUR/JPY declined by 0.47% to 163.10 in Tuesday's session, dragged lower by the strength of the Japanese yen. However, after the pair fell to a low of 161.50, buyers stepped in and pushed it back above 163.00. Nevertheless, if the pair can sustain above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), it could potentially reverse its recent losses and resume its uptrend. Technical indicators for the EUR/JPY currency pair point towards a negative outlook. The oscillator Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 46, implying growing selling pressure. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is considerably bearish, with its histogram trending downwards. Taken together, these indicators suggest a bearish sentiment for the EUR/JPY pair, potentially leading to continued declines. The EUR/JPY pair slightly recovered on Tuesday, but technical indicators point to a negative outlook. Both the RSI and MACD are deeply negative, indicating further declines are likely as long as the pair remains below the 20-day SMA. Buyers intervened, lifting it above 163.00, but they may not be able to sustain this level as technical indicators suggest the pair is set to resume its downtrend and decline further in the near term. EUR/JPY daily chart

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/GBP rises past the 50-day SMA of 0.8359, setting sights on the 0.8400 resistance.If breached, next key levels include the 100-day SMA at 0.8413, October 31 high of 0.8448.Downside risks remain; a dip below 0.8359 could see consolidation or a retest of the 0.8260 level.The EUR/GBP extended its gains for the fourth straight day, edged up above the 50-day Simpl Moving Average (SMA), and was exchanging hands at 0.8373 at the time of writing. EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlook After hitting a year-to-date (YTD) low of 0.8260, the EUR/GBP has climbed past the 0.8300 figure, cleared on its way the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8359 and paving the way for a test of 0.8400. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day SMA at 0.8413, followed by the October 31 swing high of 0.8448. Conversely, if EUR/GBP slips beneath the 50-day SMA at 0.8359, the pair might consolidate within the 0.8300-0.8359 area unless sellers drive the exchange rate below the bottom of the range, which would open the door to test 0.8260.Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hint buyers are in charge after turning bullish once they clear the 50 neutral line. EUR/GBP Price Chart – DailyEuro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.23% 0.33% -0.39% -0.10% 0.05% 0.03% -0.12% EUR -0.23%   0.11% -0.57% -0.32% -0.19% -0.18% -0.35% GBP -0.33% -0.11%   -0.68% -0.43% -0.29% -0.29% -0.44% JPY 0.39% 0.57% 0.68%   0.28% 0.42% 0.40% 0.25% CAD 0.10% 0.32% 0.43% -0.28%   0.14% 0.13% -0.02% AUD -0.05% 0.19% 0.29% -0.42% -0.14%   -0.01% -0.16% NZD -0.03% 0.18% 0.29% -0.40% -0.13% 0.00%   -0.15% CHF 0.12% 0.35% 0.44% -0.25% 0.02% 0.16% 0.15%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).  

BoE MPC’s Greene sounded cautious on the near-term outlook for policy in remarks yesterday, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.   BoE shows caution on rate outlook “She noted that while inflationary pressures were moderating, the government’s recent budget would lift prices and that wage growth was still too high. She noted that the risk of cutting too early was greater than going slowly on policy accommodation.” “Governor Bailey echoed the cautious stance today, stating that the UK government’s recently announced increase in employer National Insurance contributions could result in higher prices, lower employment or other outcomes. The governor said the BoE will have to move cautiously on policy as it monitors these impacts. Markets remain reluctant to price in more than a minimal chance of a rate cut at the Bank’s December policy meeting.” “Moderate gains in the pound yesterday have not developed into a serious challenge of the broader downtrend in spot. Rather, price action appears to be a consolidation in recent weakness ahead of another push lower. Minor support is 1.26 ahead of long-term trend support at 1.2575. Resistance is 1.2680/90.”

Final Eurozone CPI for October was confirmed at 0.3% M/M and 2.0% in the year. Core was also left unchanged at 2.7% Y/Y, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EURCHF losses on haven demand weigh on broader EUR tone “The German central bank’s monthly report noted that Q3 wages were up by the most in 30 years while ECB Governor Muller commented that a 25bps cut was likely at the central bank’s policy decision next month.” “The Euro (EUR) is a moderate underperformer among the majors on the session on EUR/CHF selling which has pulled the cross back to near its August low.” “Moderate gains in the EUR yesterday stalled around the 1.06 area and renewed losses today keep the broader tone for the EUR weak. Minor support sits at 1.05, with key support at 1.0450, last year’s low.”

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) had a mildly better day yesterday to advance to the low 1.40s after peaking just above 1.41. Spot is little changed on the session so far today, despite the drop in global stocks, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD little changed on the day “Spreads are narrowing somewhat from the early November peak, allowing for some consolidation in the CAD’s recent losses—and a moderate improvement in the CAD’s estimated fair value (1.4054 today). The CAD might be able to steady in the short run but the scope for significant gains remains limited. Canadian inflation data this morning is expected to reflect a pause in the recent trend of improvement in price data.” “The street is looking for a 0.3% increase in the October month (Scotia anticipates slightly warmer price growth of 0.4%) and a 1.9% rise in the year (up from September’s 1.6%). Core prices are expected to come in at 2.4% for the Median and Trim measures (up a little and unchanged respectively from September). Slightly firmer inflation data may see Dec swaps pare back a little of the 35bps of easing priced in for next month’s BoC decision.” “The CAD had a technically positive session overall yesterday, with funds forming a bearish engulfing line on the daily chart. With oscillators flashing “overbought” on a few fronts, price action would typically boost chances of a correction in USD strength. But the underlying trend higher in the USD remains strong and there has been no desire to push the USD any lower over the course of the session so far. I still rather think the USD is likely to find firm support on dips to the 1.3950/00 zone with a push under 1.3945/50 really needed to boost the CAD.”

The US Dollar (USD) drifted a little lower in quiet trade to start the week yesterday but scope for significant USD losses is limited currently, not least because the rise in US term rates remains hugely USD-supportive, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD mixed versus majors as havens outperform “US bond yields have risen significantly since the Fed’s first rate cut in September—the worst response to the start of the Fed’s easing cycle in the last 30-35 years at least. The DXY is trading a little above estimated fair value, based solely on rate spreads. But the overvaluation is mild and the US election outcome has added to USD support as investors anticipate the potential impact of tariffs on exchange rates.” “Still, the USD is trading a little more mixed today, with safe havens in demand around a pick-up in geo-political concerns. Ukraine wasted no time after the US permitted it to use US-supplied missile systems for attacks on Russian territory. Also, Putin approved an expanded nuclear doctrine that allows a nuclear response to a conventional attack. Stocks have fallen sharply in Europe, spilling over into US futures. Bonds are broadly higher.” “The JPY and CHF are better supported among the major currencies, with the JPY getting the added support of warnings from the Japanese MoF that the authorities will act ‘appropriately’ against excessive moves. USD/JPY is down a little more than 0.5% on the day. With little data on tap from the US (Housing Starts and Building Permits), markets may continue to reflect the risk tone through the trading session today. The Fed’s Schmid (non-voter) speaks on the economic outlook just after 13ET.”

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY falls to a six-day low, breaking through key support levels amidst heightened risk aversion.Technical indicators suggest potential further declines, with next targets set at Kijun-sen and 200-day SMA at 151.88.Immediate resistance for USD/JPY is located at the 154.00 level, with significant upper resistance at the recent peak of 156.75.The Japanese Yen registered solid gains versus the US Dollar in early trading on Tuesday, exchanging hands at 153.83 at the time of writing. Risk aversion sponsored by the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict keeps traders seeking the safety of haven currencies, like the Yen and the Swiss Franc. USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook The USD/JPY cleared support at the November 7 high at 154.71, opening the door for further losses. The pair achieved a lower low, falling to a six-day bottom of 153.28, which could pave the way to testing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 151.88. On its way to the 200-day SMA, the USD/JPY must clear the Kijun-sen at 152.80, followed by the 152.00 mark. If cleared up, next would be the 200-day SMA, followed by the 100-day SMA at 151.94. On the other hand, the USD/JPY first resistance would be the 154.00 figure. Once cleared, the next resistance would be the November 15 peak at 156.75. USD/JPY Price Chart – DailyJapanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}USD/CAD drops sharply below 1.4000 as Canadian inflation grew faster than expected in October.Higher-than-expected US inflation data might weigh on BoC large rate cuts prospects for December.The US Dollar falls back despite dismal market sentiment amid geopolitical tensions.The USD/CAD pair falls sharply after the release of the hotter-than-expected Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October. The CPI report showed that the headline inflation accelerated to 2%, faster than expectations of 1.9% and from 1.6% in September on year. Month-on-month headline inflation rose by 0.4%, the same pace at which price pressures decelerated in the previous month. Economists expected the monthly headline CPI to grow by 0.3%. Faster-than-expected growth in inflationary pressures would weigh on market expectations for a second consecutive larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in the December meeting. However, the BoC might continue its policy-easing spell as the central bank is worried about a higher jobless rate. Canada’s Unemployment Rate was recorded at 6.5% in October, much higher than what is needed to maintain a full employment environment. Meanwhile, dismal market sentiment due to a fresh escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war has strengthened the appeal of safe-haven assets. S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses in the North American session. The war situation between Russia and Ukraine renewed after President Vladimir Putin’s approval of updating the nuclear doctrine, a move followed by the launch of United States (US) made and supplied ballistic missiles by Ukraine deep in their territory. Moscow warned that the approval of US President Joe Biden for launching long-range missiles in the Russian region is unacceptable and could lead to a third world war. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls back after failing to extend recovery above the key resistance of 106.70. Going forward, the US Dollar (USD) will be influenced by market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy action in the December meeting. Trades are slightly confident that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Related newsBreaking: Canadian inflation rose more than expected in OctoberKremlin: Use of Western missiles by Ukraine against Russia could lead to nuclear responseUS Dollar sees markets turn uncertain over recent developments between Russia and Ukraine 

Housing Starts and Building Permits in the US declined further in October.The US Dollar Index stays in daily range above 106.00.Housing Starts in the US declined 3.1% in October to 1.311 million units, the monthly data published by the US Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday. This reading followed the 1.9% decrease (revised from -0.5%) recorded in September.  In the same period, Building Permits decreased 0.6% after falling 3.1% (revised from -2.9%) in September. Market reactionThe US Dollar Index edged lower following these data and was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day at around 106.20.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Crude Oil edges lower due to concerns that the US Oil market might be glutted. Headlines risk in Russia and Ukraine point to further escalation. The US Dollar Index recovers from Monday’s low amid safe-haven inflows. Crude Oil price slides lower on Tuesday after a key gauge on the US Crude market signaling a substantial glut taking place for the first time in nine months. The spread in price between Oil futures contracts for immediate deliveries against those a month later is trading negatively for the first time since February and is an important sign of a bearish market outlook as it suggests sellers need to lower their prices in order to get rid of their inventory by the time the next supply comes in.  The US Dollar Index (DXY) pares back Monday’s losses, driven by headlines of risk in Ukraine and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree approving changes to Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, allowing the usage of nuclear weapons in Ukraine should the country target Russian installations within Russian borders. Ukraine, meanwhile, has pressed ahead and has launched its first ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles into Russia, Bloomberg reports, citing local sources. This triggered some safe-haven inflows into the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY).  At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $68.89 and Brent Crude at $72.87Oil news and market movers: US market surplusThe International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that for 2025, a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day will be taking place, Bloomberg reports.  Physical prices of WTI Midland at the Magellan East Houston rose to the highest since the end of September after Kazakhstan and Norway shut production for unplanned repairs, Bloomberg reports.  The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release its weekly Crude stockpile change numbers for the week ending November 15. The forecast is for a build of 0.8 million barrels against the drawdown of 0.777 million the previous week. Oil Technical Analysis: Stalling ahead of targetCrude Oil price is ticking lower on Tuesday, with the previous day’s brief spark stalling ahead of the first cap on the topside at $70.05. While concerns about China persist, threats on US supply arising now in the futures market just add to more bearish news. The risk of more downside is thus greater than the upside when looking at the fundamentals and ignoring the turn of events between Russia and Ukraine.  On the upside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.05 is the first barrier to consider before the hefty technical level at $73.17, which aligns with the 100-day SMA. The 200-day SMA at $76.56 is still quite far off, although it could be tested if tensions intensify further.  On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The US Dollar recovers slightly, driven by increased safe-haven flows on increasing concerns related to the war between Russia and UkrainePresident Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that allows the usage of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. The US Dollar index trades in the 106 area, in search of support. The US Dollar (USD) is entering a choppy trading pattern on the back of headlines around Russian President Vladimir Putin having signed a decree that allows the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if it is supported by nuclear powers. The move is widely seen as a clear threat to Ukraine after the United States gave Kyiv permission to use long-range missiles to attack military targets inside Russia.  As tensions escalate, US equities are turning red and safe havens such as the USD, the Swiss Frank (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) are seeing substantial inflows. The move is a knee-jerk reaction to the risk-on close that markets saw on Monday.  The US economic calendar is all about US Housing data on Tuesday, with the  Building Permits and the Housing Starts data. Seeing the recent trend, expectations are that the numbers will point to a broad stabilization in the housing market.  Daily digest market movers: Geopolitics pressure marketsHeadlines around Russia are delivering a knee-jerk reaction in markets. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that allows the full deployment of nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear nation that strikes positions on Russian soil, Bloomberg reportsl. This basically means that once Ukraine deploys long-distance missiles from the US or the UK, Russia will be able to retaliate with the use of nuclear weapons.  Meanwhile Ukraine has launched its first ATACMS strike inside Russia, Bloomberg reports - citing local sources.  At 13:30 GMT, US Housing data for October will be released: Building Permits are expected to tick up to 1.43 million from 1.425 million previously.  Housing Starts are expected to decline to 1.34 million units against 1.354 million in September.  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid delivers a speech about the US economic and monetary policy outlook at an event organized by The Greater Omaha Chamber in La Vista, Nebraska around 18:10 GMT.  Equities are diving lower after the comments came out around President Putin signing the nuclear weapons decree. European equities are giving up all gains and slide lower by near 0.50%. US equity futures are showing smaller losses.  The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the December 18 meeting by 58.4%. A 41.6% chance is for rates to remain unchanged. While the rate-cut scenario is the most probable, traders have significantly pared back some of the rate-cut bets compared with a week ago. The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.38%, sliding further away from the high printed on Friday at 4.50%US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Putin did what now?The US Dollar Index (DXY) shakes up markets with geopolitical headlines taking control of markets. While the G20 group is meeting in Brazil, Russian President Putin signs an expanding decree for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It looks like markets are starting to doubt if this is still part of the normal “flexing the muscles” or this could turn into an actual threat.  After a brief test and a firm rejection last Thursday, the 107.00 round level remains in play. A fresh yearly high has already been reached at 107.07, which is the static level to beat. Further up, a fresh two-year high could be reached if 107.35 gets taken out.  On the downside, a fresh set of support is coming live. The first level is 105.93, the closing from November 12. A touch lower, the pivotal 105.53 (April 11 high) should avoid any downturns towards 104.00. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price recovers further to nearly $2,635 on the fresh escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine.Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to update the country’s nuclear doctrine.Fed officials refrain from forecasting the impact of Trump’s policies on the economy.Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its recovery for a second consecutive day, trading around $2,635 in European hours on Tuesday, as Ukraine has already launched US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles into Russia, according to reports from local media RBC citing a source from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The move has escalated fears of a nuclear war, prompting investors to flee towards safe-haven assets such as Gold. Fears of an escalation in geopolitical tensions were already high after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval of the country’s nuclear policy revision, which appeared to be an answer to the US for backing Ukraine’s military strength by allowing Kyiv to use Washington-supplied ATACMS missiles to attack Russia’s Kursk region. The nuclear doctrine "concerns the fact that the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression with the use of conventional weapons against it" where that is deemed to have created "a critical threat to sovereignty or territorial integrity,” Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, told TASS on Tuesday. Peskov also stated that Russia acknowledges US President Joe Biden’s approval of the supply of missiles to Ukraine as an intent to prolong the conflict. Historically, the safe-haven appeal of precious metals such as Gold increases at times of uncertainty or heightened geopolitical risks. Leading investment banking firm Goldman Sachs is bullish on the Gold price for a year-long horizon and sees it rising to $3,000 by 2025 on multiple tailwinds. “The structural driver of the forecast is higher demand from central banks, while a cyclical lift would come from flows to exchange-traded funds as the Federal Reserve cuts (interest rates).” Daily digest market movers: Gold price recovers sharply after plunging last fortnight Gold price has recovered almost 38% of the losses seen in the first half of November amid increasing geopolitical worries. The precious metal faced an intense sell-off as the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields strengthened on expectations that changes in fiscal and external policies promised by President-elected Donald Trump in his election campaign would be implemented smoothly, given his victory in both houses. Trump has vowed to raise import tariffs by 10% universally and lower taxes. This scenario is expected to boost inflation and economic growth, which could result in slower and fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have avoided commenting on the possible repercussions of Trump’s policies on the economy. The impact of Trump’s victory is visible in market expectations for the Fed's interest rate path. According to analysts at Nomura, the Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the December meeting. "We currently expect tariffs will drive realized inflation higher by the summer, and risks are skewed towards an earlier and more prolonged pause,” analysts at Nomura said. At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds from 106.10 as a fresh escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war has dampened investors’ risk appetite.  Technical Analysis: Gold price rebounds to near 50-day EMAGold price bounces back strongly after discovering support near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average around $2,535. The precious metal has recovered to near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,635.  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above 40.00, suggesting that the bearish momentum is over. Going up, the 20-day EMA around $2,650 will be a key barrier to the Gold price bulls. On the downside, the 100-day EMA will be a major support. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Fabio Panetta said on Tuesday that the central bank is “still a long way from the neutral rate.” Additional comments If domestic demand remains weak, inflation could fall well below 2%. The ECB should move to neutral monetary policy stance, or even expansionary if necessary. Eurozone economic activity remains weak, no turning point in sight for beleaguered manufacturing sector. The tightening bias in our official description of the monetary stance is no longer necessary. The ECB should return to more traditional, forward looking approach to monetary policy. Directional guidance from the ECB would help consumption and investment. The ECB needs to give more explicit indications of its rate policy intentions. Market reactionEUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0566, losing 0.31% on the day.

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann testifies on the November Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday.  Key quotes Forward-looking price and wage indicators have been flat and above target for 4 months, raising the risk of inflation persistence. Financial markets' inflation expectations suggest boe will not get to sustainable 2% inflation in forecast horizon. Latest budget offers opportunity for firms to realise price increases that are inconsistent with 2% inflation target. Higher minimum wage was causing firms problems in maintaining wage differentials.

Today's meeting of the National Bank of Hungary should be a non-event in terms of a rate decision. Central bankers have made it clear that the cutting cycle is on hold for some time due to high financial instability, meaning too high a EUR/HUF. Numbers from the economy continue to surprise on the downside, with third-quarter GDP confirming a return to technical recession and headline inflation surprisingly holding close to the central bank's target. In fact, Hungarian headline inflation is the closest to the target among Central and Estern Europe (CEE) peers at the moment. However, the central bank's focus is on EUR/HUF which has repeatedly broken above 410, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes. EUR/HUF has repeatedly broken above 410 “Although the market was still pricing in rate hikes in late October and early November, these expectations have calmed since the US election and the market has rebuilt some rate cuts into the longer horizon of the FRA curve. Still, the NBH does not appear to have won. While market positioning is less short on the HUF than before the US election, the market still sees EUR/HUF heading more to the upside.” “So the NBH will have to show enough hawkish rhetoric today to be able to return EUR/HUF to more acceptable levels. At the same time, the NBH will want to avoid any hints of an additional rate hike or other stronger measures. EUR/HUF briefly returned to 410 yesterday but surprised with a reversal below 407 at the end of trading.” “Visibly the market is looking for a way to go. However, we believe 410 will remain the point of gravity in the current global environment, which the NBH does not fully control – namely the negative for the entire CEE region led by EUR/USD pushing lower.”

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor testifies on the November Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday.  Key quotes Disinflation is unfolding as we would expect.   developing story ... British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.31% 0.22% -0.58% 0.05% 0.18% 0.13% -0.03% EUR -0.31%   -0.09% -0.88% -0.25% -0.14% -0.17% -0.34% GBP -0.22% 0.09%   -0.76% -0.16% -0.04% -0.08% -0.24% JPY 0.58% 0.88% 0.76%   0.64% 0.75% 0.71% 0.55% CAD -0.05% 0.25% 0.16% -0.64%   0.12% 0.08% -0.09% AUD -0.18% 0.14% 0.04% -0.75% -0.12%   -0.04% -0.20% NZD -0.13% 0.17% 0.08% -0.71% -0.08% 0.04%   -0.16% CHF 0.03% 0.34% 0.24% -0.55% 0.09% 0.20% 0.16%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).  

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardellitestifies on the November Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday.  Key quotes We have seen a fall in services inflation and wage settlements.  I see risks to inflation on both sides. more to come ...

 Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey testifies on the November Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday.  Key quotes Services inflation is still above a level that's compatible with on-target inflation. We need to watch services inflation very carefully, reflects labour market developments. A gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint will help us to observe risks the inflation outlook.   developing story .... Market reaction At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at around 1.2630, down 0.30% on a daily basis.

Since late October, the HUF has been on a rollercoaster ride in anticipation of the momentous days of early November (US election, FOMC). After the US election, EUR/HUF rose to over 410. Last week, market concerns that the successor to central bank chief Gyorgy Matolcsy, whose term of office expires in March 2025, could seek a looser monetary policy in view of the weak fundamentals, also weighed on the forint. The current finance minister, Mihaly Varga, is being discussed as a possible new central bank chief. Last week, the government assured that monetary policy would not change much under the new central bank chief and that there was no risk of drastic interest rate cuts, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. After the US election, EUR/HUF rises to over 410 “In this mixed environment, the central bank (MNB) now has to decide on its monetary policy today. Nobody expects the key interest rate to change; it is likely to remain unchanged at 6.50%. But we hope to hear decisive words from the MNB. The currency weakness and the volatility of the forint should be a cause for concern for the central bank.” “The forint tends to be more volatile and prone to runaway in times of heightened risk aversion, which could require emergency measures by the central bank to prevent further currency weakness. In such scenarios, the exchange rate can become a dominant inflation driver, which is why the central bank would probably like to stop these developments early on.” “Although the forint has recovered somewhat, the last two weeks have shown how vulnerable it is. In this respect, the MNB should show resolve today, even indicating raising interest rates again if necessary, in order to clearly signal to the market that it is prepared to stabilize the exchange rate. The focus of today's meeting is therefore less on current inflation trends and the key interest rate per se, but rather on demonstrating responsiveness and resolve in the face of deteriorating market conditions, and thus stabilizing the HUF.”

Canada releases inflation figures for October today. Expectations are for a rebound in headline CPI to 1.9% YoY while core measures are seen stabilising around 2.4%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD/CAD to end the year below 1.40 “This is the last CPI report the Bank of Canada will see before the 11 December meeting, meaning the release can have deep implications for market pricing, which currently embeds nearly even chances of a 25bp or 50bp cut.” “The other two major inputs for the BoC will be GDP data on 29 November and the November jobs report on 6 December. We still see a 25bp move as more likely as both activity and inflation seem to be stabilising and markets have scaled back some Fed easing expectations.” “We see a case for some modest tightening in the USD:CAD 2-year swap rate gap from the current 100bp level, which can put a cap on USD/CAD in the near term. We still expect the pair to end the year below 1.40.”  

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its latest meeting, which took place on the day of the US presidential election, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. RBA sees risks on both sides “The minutes show that the central bank was aware of the uncertainties arising from international circumstances. Specifically, a sharp change in US economic policy and the size of the Chinese government's at that point yet-to-be-announced stimulus package were cited as sources of uncertainty. Risks have more or less materialized on both counts.” “While the outcome of the US election and the US President-elect's nominations so far point to a rather unconventional economic policy, the Chinese stimulus package has been rather disappointing, especially with regard to the housing market. Despite the international headwinds, the Australian economy remains robust. Although growth has been somewhat disappointing of late, the labour market remains tight, employment growth remains strong and wage growth is correspondingly good.” “All of this contributes to inflation continuing to move slowly towards the RBA's target. The RBA therefore reiterated that it is comfortable with the current level of interest rates and sees risks on both sides. I continue to expect that a weaker economy next year will prompt the RBA to move more quickly than it and the market currently expect, which should weigh on the AUD. The materialisation of risks in the international environment certainly supports this view.”  

EUR/USD is enjoying a brief correction as some of the ECB hawks speculate over whether global fragmentation (i.e. shortening of supply chains and trade wars) will be inflationary and will call for higher interest rates, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes. EUR/USD to correct much higher “These were the thoughts of ECB's Joachim Nagel yesterday – comments which helped narrow the two-year EUR:USD swap differential by around 10bp and saw EUR/USD correct to 1.06.”   “On the subject of rate differentials, the market currently prices 10bp of Fed cuts in December (we look for 25bp) and 31bp of ECB cuts (we look for 50bp). Of course, if the Fed cuts 25bp and the ECB only cuts by 25bp, there could be a little upside for EUR/USD amid the seasonal dollar patterns we discuss above.” “For the time being, however, we do not see a compelling case for EUR/USD to correct much higher and even a move to 1.0660/65 would still be in keeping with a bearish near-term trend. Expect another quiet day for EUR/USD with a focus on the US Treasury pick, as discussed above.”

Over the course of the week, there will be few data releases from the euro zone, except for the purchasing managers' indices on Friday. The market could primarily get information from the words of the many ECB members, who will be speaking in the coming days, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. Too many ECB speakers to keep up with “The ECB, like the Fed, will increasingly focus on the economic outlook thanks to the ongoing disinflation. And here the signals have not been very encouraging recently, with the economy remaining fragile. ECB officials therefore will likely be cautious about the growth outlook, but this is not a new insight. The market already prices in rate cuts down to 2% by mid-2025 and goes even a bit further until autumn. Therefore, ECB officials would have to sound much more concerned to further depress interest rate expectations, but there is currently no reason for this. So words are unlikely to be followed by action in the market.” “Therefore, the euro is likely to be driven primarily by economic data. The leading indicators on Friday could provide an indication of how the economy will develop in the coming months. However, those hoping for strong impulses could be disappointed. The overall PMI is likely to remain at the 50 mark in November, just above the threshold between recession and slight growth. Industry continues to be a burden, as this sub-index is likely to stabilize at a very low level at best. In this respect, the familiar information is likely to remain: industry continues to weaken, so the winter half-year remains difficult and the economy is making only slow progress. Only an unexpected outlier in either direction in the PMI, which is highly unlikely, could therefore lead to a more pronounced movement in the euro before the weekend.” “Although there is little data on the agenda in the US this week, the news flow on the plans of the new US president-elect is likely to continue to determine events in EUR/USD anyway. In this respect, it is also primarily words that count for the market on the US dollar side. And as in the past few weeks, the dollar is likely to continue to set the tone in EUR/USD. However, many of the new US administration's personnel decisions are now known. Furthermore, it is only when the new administration takes office that it becomes clear exactly which of Trump's plans will be implemented. Therefore, in the absence of any major surprises, I expect EUR/USD to trade sideways this week in the face of a lack of impetus.”

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Speaking at a news briefing on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by the Ukraine against the Russian Federation under the new doctrine could lead to a nuclear response. His comment comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin approved changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine earlier on Tuesday, expanding conditions under which nuclear weapons could be used, including in cases of attacks by non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers, per The Moscow Times. Russia’s response follows US President Joe Biden’s authorization to Ukraine to use American Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike inside Russia on Sunday, a move the Kremlin warned could lead to “a significant new round of escalation.” Market reaction Risk sentiment took a big hit on the above headlines, with the US S&P 500 futures, a risk barometer, down 0.50% on the day. The safe-haven US Dollar recaptured 106.50 against its major rivals while Gold price tested highs near the $2,635 level. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD faces resistance near 1.0600 on Tuesday as investors see more upside in the US Dollar.The focus of ECB officials turns toward preserving growth rather than taming price pressures.Trump’s policies are expected to boost US inflation and economic growth.EUR/USD struggles to extend Monday’s recovery above the immediate resistance of 1.0600 and edges lower in Tuesday’s European session. It appears that the recovery from the yearly low around 1.0500 last week in the major currency pair losses steam as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have become more worried about the Eurozone economic growth due to firm expectations of a likely trade war with the United States (US) than getting inflation under control. Market participants are worried that protectionist policies by President-elected Donald Trump could disrupt the Eurozone’s growth potential. Though the blanket of higher import tariffs by the US will have a negative impact on all economies, the effect will be worse on the European Union (EU) as Trump mentioned, in his election campaign, that the euro bloc will "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports. "Protectionist tendencies could disrupt the global supply chains that are essential to European industries, with a negative impact on firms’ growth potential, competitiveness, and financial resilience," Claudia Buch, head of ECB’s supervisory arm, told the European Parliament on Monday. Fears of Trump’s external policies have deepened the debate over whether the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points (bps) in the December meeting. On Monday, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf said that it is a bit far to say that an interest rate cut in December is “in the bag” and the bank needs “pretty overwhelming” evidence for an interest rate reduction by 50 bps. During the European session, Eurostat will release revisions to the October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Inflation data is expected to remain unchanged, with the headline HIPC at 2% year-over-year (YoY) and the core HIPC at 2.7% YoY. Daily digest market movers: EURUSD struggles to hold recovery as US Dollar’s broader outlook remains firm EUR/USD managed to get some demand near 1.0500 last week as the US Dollar (USD) faced a slight correction after posting a fresh yearly high, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) ticking down from 107.00. The outlook of the major currency pair remains downbeat as market participants see the Greenback having more room for growth on expectations that Trump’s policies will prompt inflation and economic growth. According to analysts at Capital Economics, "While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term, we have revised up our forecasts for the US Dollar and now project a further 5% appreciation by the end of 2025." Economists added, "That is based primarily on a view that President-elected Donald Trump will push ahead with the core tariff policies he proposed on the campaign trail and that the US economy will continue to outperform its major peers." The scenario of high inflation and strong growth will result in fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will result in a sharp policy divergence with the ECB. Meanwhile, traders have also pared some bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Fed in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 62% chance that the central bank will cut its key borrowing rates by 25 bps to the 4.25%-4.50% range, down from 77% noted a month ago. This week, investors will pay close attention to the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for November, which will be released on Friday. The PMI report is expected to show that the overall private sector activity improved in the US while steadying in the Eurozone. Business sentiment is also expected to have improved as Trump is confirmed to return to administration. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD sees resistance near 1.0600EUR/USD bounced back from the key support of 1.0500 last week but struggles to extend recovery above 1.0600 on Tuesday. The outlook of the major currency pair remains bearish as all short- to long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are declining.  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, adding to evidence of more weakness in the near term. Looking down, below the year-to-date low at around 1.0500, the pair is expected to find a cushion near the October 2023 low at around 1.0450. On the flip side, the round-level resistance of 1.0600 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

The US Dollar (USD) could weaken further; any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. A break below 7.2000 to stop USD gains 24-HOUR VIEW: “We held the view that USD ‘is likely to trade in a range of 7.2250/7.2500’ yesterday. USD then rose to 7.2529 before dropping sharply to a low of 7.2252. USD closed at 7.2260 (-0.23%). There has been a slight increase in momentum, and USD could weaken further. However, any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000 (there is another support level at 7.2180). On the upside, should USD break above 7.2460 (minor resistance is at 7.2390), it would mean that the current mild downward pressure has eased.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view for more than a week now. In our most recent narrative from last Wednesday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470), we pointed out that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ USD has not been able to make further headway since then, and momentum is beginning to slow. From here, if USD breaks below 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.”

FX markets are seeing some well-deserved consolidation after a volatile few weeks. The near 7% DXY appreciation in just six weeks had been one of the sharpest adjustments in FX markets since the summer of 2022. Positioning is probably the biggest threat to the dollar right now, although we may also start to hear of dollar seasonality again where DXY has fallen in eight of the last 10 Decembers and for the last seven consecutive Decembers, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes. DXY is currently holding support above 106.00 “With the US data calendar quiet this week, attention remains on the make-up of President-elect Trump's cabinet. One of the most relevant positions for financial markets is the post of US Treasury Secretary. This has yet to be decided, but it seems there are at least four names in the running: Kevin Warsh (ex-Federal Reserve), Marc Rowan (Apollo Global Management), Howard Lutnick (CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald), and Scott Bessent (Key Square Group). Some reports even have Robert Lighthizer as still being in the mix for this position.” “The relevance of the pick for financial markets will probably be how the US Treasury market reacts. A candidate with proven reliability will be well-received by the bond markets, while those with less experience – or perhaps a candidate that will offer less of a counterweight to some of President-elect Trump's plans – could see the long end of the US Treasury market sell-off and perhaps even soften the dollar too.” “DXY is currently holding support just above 106.00 and even a correction back to 105.65 would still keep the near-term bullish trend intact. We see no reason for a large dollar correction at the moment, but equally not a clear catalyst for an advance.”

The US Dollar (USD) could trade in a choppy manner, likely between 153.80 and 155.10. In the longer run, pullback in USD could extend to 153.20, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. USD can lower down to 153.20 24-HOUR VIEW: “After USD plunged last Friday, we indicated yesterday that ‘While the sharp and swift sell-off appears to be overdone, there is a chance for USD to drop below 153.85 before stabilisation can be expected.’ USD dipped briefly to 153.84, rebounded strongly to 155.35, and then pulled back, closing at 154.65 (+0.20%). The price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, USD could trade in a choppy manner, likely between 153.80 and 155.10.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (18 Nov, spot at 154.20) remains valid. As highlighted, ‘The current price action is likely part of a pullback that could extend to 153.20.’ On the upside, should USD break above 155.80 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level), it would mean that the current downward pressure has eased.”

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 83.65 on Tuesday, down from 83.85 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

USD/SGD continued to trade lower, amid broad US Dollar (USD) pullback. Pair was last seen at 1.3407 levels. Technical patterns point to signs of bearish pullback “Daily momentum is mild bullish but shows signs of waning while RSI was flat. Bearish divergence on MACD and rising wedge pattern appear to be forming. Technical patterns point to signs of bearish pullback in the near term. Support at 1.3340 (200 DMA), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low). Resistance at 1.3490, 1.3520 levels.” “Policy uncertainties associated with Trump policies, swings in RMB and JPY should continue to drive USDSGD in the near term. S$NEER was last at 1.35% above model-implied mid.”

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5860/0.5910 range. In the longer run, slowdown in downward momentum indicates that 0.5775 is probably out of reach, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. NZD is likely to trade in a 0.5860/0.5910 range 24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we expected NZD to trade in a range between 0.5845 and 0.5885. NZD subsequently dipped to 0.5838 before rising strongly to 0.5898. Despite the advance, there has been no significant increase in momentum, and NZD is unlikely to advance much further. Today, NZD is more likely to trade in a 0.5860/0.5910 range.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in NZD last Wednesday (13 Nov, spot at 0.5925), but we indicated that ‘it is too early to tell if the major support at 0.5850 is within reach.’ After NZD fell below 0.5850, we indicated last Friday (15 Nov, spot at 0.5845) that ‘the outlook for NZD remains negative, and the technical target now is at last year’s low of 0.5775.’ Yesterday, NZD rebounded to 0.5898. While our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.5915 has not been breached yet, the slowdown in downward momentum indicates that 0.5775 is probably out of reach.”

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD finds resistance at the psychological level of 0.6500 amid ongoing bearish bias.The pair may test support around the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary.Further resistance appears around the nine-day EMA at 0.6518.AUD/USD halts two days of gains, trading around 0.6500 during the European hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair moving downwards within a descending channel pattern, reinforcing an ongoing bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 level, confirming the prevailing bearish sentiment. Additionally, the nine-day EMA remains below the 14-day EMA, which suggests a bearish price momentum for a short-term period. In terms of support, the AUD/USD pair may approach the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel at 0.6390 level. A decisive break below the descending channel could amplify selling pressure, potentially driving the pair toward its yearly low of 0.6348, last recorded on August 5. On the upside, the 0.6500 level serves as immediate resistance. A sustained move above this threshold might push the AUD/USD pair toward the nine-day EMA at 0.6518, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6541 level. Surpassing these levels could pave the way for a rally toward the three-week high of 0.6687. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.19% 0.14% -0.35% 0.06% 0.06% 0.12% 0.07% EUR -0.19%   -0.03% -0.54% -0.12% -0.12% -0.06% -0.12% GBP -0.14% 0.03%   -0.49% -0.09% -0.09% -0.03% -0.07% JPY 0.35% 0.54% 0.49%   0.43% 0.42% 0.47% 0.44% CAD -0.06% 0.12% 0.09% -0.43%   0.00% 0.06% 0.01% AUD -0.06% 0.12% 0.09% -0.42% -0.00%   0.06% 0.01% NZD -0.12% 0.06% 0.03% -0.47% -0.06% -0.06%   -0.04% CHF -0.07% 0.12% 0.07% -0.44% -0.01% -0.01% 0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) rebounded as US Dollar (USD) bulls paused. Pair was last at 1.0575 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. ECB speakers to take over the narrative this week “Daily momentum remains bearish bias though there are signs of it waning while RSI shows tentative signs of turning higher from near oversold conditions. Falling wedge and inverted hanging man (last Fri) observed. Technical signs suggest EUR bears may be feeling the fatigue and risk of short squeeze/ bullish reversal is not ruled out in the near term. Resistance at 1.06, 1.0740 (21 DMA), 1.0860 (200 DMA). Support at 1.05, 1.0450 levels.” “This week brings plenty of ECBspeaks (about 26 officials this week), including Lagarde in Frankfurt (Fri). Overnight, Lagarde urged Europe to pool its resources in areas like defence and climate as productivity growth falters and world fragments into rival blocs.” “Stournaras said that ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates by a quarter point in Dec while Makhlouf said there is no rush to lower rates at a faster pace. Nagel warned that trade tensions can lead to greater inflationary pressures.”

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Canadian Consumer Price Index is seen ticking higher by 1.9% YoY in October.The Bank of Canada has reduced its policy rate by 125 basis points so far this year.The Canadian Dollar navigates multi-year lows against its American counterpart.Statistics Canada is gearing up to release its latest inflation report for October, tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), on Tuesday. Expectations point to a potential 1.9% rise in headline inflation compared to the same month last year. Alongside this, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core CPI figures, which strip out more volatile items like food and energy, will also be published. In September, core CPI came in flat compared with the previous month but was up 1.6% year-over-year. The headline CPI for September showed a modest 1.6% increase over the past 12 months – the lowest since February 2021 – and actually declined by 0.4% from a month earlier. Investors and analysts are watching these inflation numbers closely, as they could sway the Canadian Dollar (CAD), especially given the BoC’s current stance on interest rates. It’s worth noting that the BoC has already lowered its policy rate by 125 basis points since it started its easing cycle in May, bringing it down to 3.75%. On the currency front, the Canadian Dollar has had a rough ride. This depreciation of the Canadian currency has pushed USD/CAD to levels not seen since May 2020, north of the 1.4100 barrier. What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate? Consensus among market participants appears to favour an uptick in Canadian inflation in October, although the metric should remain below the BoC’s 2.0% target. In the unlikely case that there’s an unexpected and substantial jump in prices, the underlying trend of easing inflation should keep the central bank on track with its rate-cutting strategy. In the wake of the clear consensus that ensued the BoC’s 50-basis-point rate cut on October 23, Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged that inflation “has come down a little faster than expected.” In addition, Macklem noted that headline inflation has seen a significant drop recently, attributing part of this decline to falling global Oil prices, especially in gasoline. However, he pointed out that the improvement isn’t just about volatile energy costs. He explained that core inflation – which strips out those more unpredictable factors – has also been easing gradually, much as the bank had anticipated. He added that, while shelter price inflation remains high, it has started to come down, boosting the bank's confidence that this trend will continue in the months ahead. Previewing the data release, Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen at Royal Bank of Canada noted: “We expect some upward seasonal price moves in categories like clothing and footwear as well as travel tours. Another component to watch for is property taxes and other special charges, as this component is released only in October. The BoC‘s preferred median and trim core measures (for a better gauge of where inflation is going rather than where it’s been) both likely ticked higher in October on a three-month rolling average.” When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD? Canada's inflation report for October is set to be released on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, but the Canadian Dollar's reaction is likely to depend on whether the data delivers any big surprises. If the figures come in line with expectations, it’s unlikely to sway the Bank of Canada’s current rate outlook. In the meantime, USD/CAD has been navigating a strong upward trend since October, hitting multi-year tops just beyond the 1.4100 hurdle at the end of last week. This rise has mainly been fuelled by a robust rebound in the US Dollar (USD), almost exclusively on the back of the so-called “Trump trade,"  keeping risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar under heavy pressure. Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, suggests that under the current scenario of persistent gains in the Greenback and heightened volatility in crude Oil prices, further weakness in the Canadian Dollar should well remain on the cards in the near to medium terms. “If the rally continues, the next resistance level for USD/CAD emerges at the weekly peak of 1.4265 (April 21, 2020), ahead of the highest level reached that year at 1.4667 (March 19),” Piovano adds On the downside, there is an initial contention zone at the November low of 1.3823 (November 6), prior to the provisional support zone in the 1.3710-1.3700 band, where converge both interim 55-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), all prior to the more significant 200-day SMA at 1.3663. If USD/CAD breaks below the latter, it could spark an extra bout of selling pressure to, initially, the September low at 1.3418 (September 25), Piovano says. Economic Indicator BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Nov 19, 2024 13:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: -Previous: 0%Source: Statistics Canada Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.6470 and 0.6520. In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing; a break of 0.6520 would mean that AUD is not weakening further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. AUD is expected to trade between 0.6470 and 0.6520 24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we noted that ‘As momentum indicators are turning flat, further sideways trading appears likely, probably in a range of 0.6445/0.6485.’ The subsequent advance that sent AUD to a high of 0.6510 was unexpected. The advance did not result in any significant increase in momentum, and AUD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, AUD is expected to trade in a range between 0.6470 and 0.6520.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our view to negative in the middle of last week. In our latest narrative from last Friday (15 Nov, spot at 0.6450), we highlighted that ‘further AUD weakness still appears likely.’ We also highlighted that ‘The next level to watch is 0.6400.’ Yesterday, AUD rebounded to a high of 0.6510, not far below our ‘strong resistance’ level of 0.6520. Downward momentum is slowing, a break above 0.6520 would mean that instead of continuing to weaken, AUD is more likely to consolidate.”

USD/JPY saw choppy trades over the last 24 hours. USD/JPY was last at 153.61, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD/JPY may break below the support at 153.30 “Markets were earlier hoping BoJ Governor Ueda dropped some hints or forward guidance on policy move at Dec MPC. But clearly those hopes were misplaced. He said that actual timing of adjustments will continue depending on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions – This is akin to policy decision being data dependent, which can justify policy action in Dec MPC.” “Governor Ueda also spoke about focus on shunto wage negotiations going forward. Bit and pieces of news flow relating to shunto may come intermittently but typically, we may have to wait till Mar or Apr next year for confirmation of the quantum of wage increase.” “Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Potential bearish divergence on RSI observed. Further downside play likely. Support at 153.30 (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low) needs to be broken for bears to gather further traction towards 150.70 (50% fibo). Resistance at 156.50 (76.4% fibo).”

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD holds above 1.4000 and draws support from a combination of factors.Bearish Crude Oil prices undermine the Loonie and act as a tailwind for the pair.The emergence of fresh USD buying favors bulls ahead of the Canadian CPI print.The USD/CAD pair finds some support near the 1.4000 psychological mark on Tuesday and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the highest level since May 2020. Traders, however, remain on the sidelines and keenly await the release of Canadian consumer inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. The headline Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is estimated to rise by 0.3% in October and the yearly rate is anticipated to have increased from 1.6% in September to 1.9%. A softer-than-expected reading will reinforce market bets for another jumbo interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in December. This, in turn, might continue to weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and assist the USD/CAD pair to resume its recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so. Heading into the key data risk, signs that supply tightness was easing keep a lid on the overnight recovery in Crude Oil prices from over a two-month low and undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. Furthermore, expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost inflation and limit the scope for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) revive the US Dollar (USD) demand. These turn out to be key factors acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.  Meanwhile, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair remains to the upside. Hence, any immediate market reaction to strong Canadian CPI print might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to be short-lived. Bullish traders, however, need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.4100 mark before placing fresh bets and positioning for any further appreciating move. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Nov 19, 2024 13:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 1.9%Previous: 1.6%Source: Statistics Canada  

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a 1.2625/1.2705 range. In the longer run, GBP is likely to continue to weaken to 1.2565, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes. GBP is expected to trade in a 1.2625/1.2705 range 24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, GBP dropped sharply to 1.2598. Yesterday (Monday), we indicated that ‘there is scope for GBP to edge lower to 1.2590.’ Our view turned out to be incorrect, as GBP rebounded from 1.2614 to 1.2686. GBP then closed at 1.2679 (+0.48%). The price action is likely part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a 1.2625/1.2705 range.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (18 Nov, spot at 1.2620), we highlighted, GBP is likely to continue to weaken to 1.2565. Although the subsequent rebound has slowed the momentum somewhat, only a breach of 1.2745 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the weakness that started early last week has stabilised.”

The US Dollar (USD) eased overnight in line with our earlier caution for risks of technical pullback. DXY was last at 106.26 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Near term risks remain skewed lower “Bullish momentum on daily chart eased while rise fell from near overbought conditions. Potential bearish divergence may be forming on daily MACD. Near term risks remain skewed towards a technical retracement lower. Support at 105.60 (76.4% fibo) and 104.50/60 levels (21DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low). Resistance at 107, 107.40 (2023 high).” “Near term, economic calendar is quiet for US. Prelim PMIs, Uni of Michigan sentiment data are out on Fri before core PCE (next Wed). Softer print can add to USD correction while a firmer print should see USD dips finding support. Elsewhere, markets may also pay attention to Trump nomination, with special focus on who takes the Treasury.”

Instead of continuing to rise, the Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a 1.0560/1.0610 range. In the longer run, Downward momentum is beginning to fade; a break of 1.0610 would indicate that EUR has entered a consolidation phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes. Downward momentum is beginning to fade 24-HOUR VIEW: “After EUR traded in a range last Friday, we indicated yesterday (Monday) that ‘There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum, and we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, probably between 1.0505 and 1.0585.’ We did not anticipate the rebound that sent EUR to a high of 1.0607. EUR closed on a firm note at 1.0599 (+0.55%). The rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, and instead of continuing to rise, EUR is likely to trade in a 1.0560/1.0610 range today.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in EUR on 07 Nov, when EUR was at 1.0730. After EUR fell below our technical target of 1.0500, we indicated last Friday (15 Nov, spot at 1.0525) that ‘The price action continues to suggest EUR weakness, even though caution is warranted given the deeply oversold conditions.’ We added, ‘The next support is at last year’s low, near 1.0450.’ Yesterday, EUR rebounded strongly, reaching a high of 1.0607. Downward momentum is beginning to fade, and a clear break of 1.0610 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that EUR has entered a consolidation phase.”

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY loses ground as traders adopt caution ahead of BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings on Tuesday.The British Pound may depreciate as markets price in an 80% probability of another BoE rate cut in December.The Japanese Yen receives downward pressure from uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ’s rate hike.The GBP/JPY cross retraces its recent gains, trading near 195.50 during European hours. Traders exercise caution ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearings on Tuesday. During these hearings, BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, will address questions from the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons regarding recent interest rate decisions. The British Pound (GBP) may face headwinds, with markets pricing in an 80% probability of another BoE rate cut next month, potentially bringing rates to just above 4% by the end of 2025. Investors are also closely watching the UK’s October inflation data, forecasted at 2.2%. The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces pressure amid uncertainty surrounding the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). On Monday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that rate hikes would proceed gradually, depending on economic performance, but refrained from providing a specific timeline for future adjustments. On Tuesday, Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa highlighted the importance of “boosting pay for all generations” as part of the country’s economic package, adding that the government is targeting swift cabinet approval for the plan.  Additionally, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed heightened vigilance over foreign exchange movements, stressing the importance of stable currency behavior aligned with economic fundamentals. Kato reaffirmed that the ministry would take appropriate measures to address excessive forex fluctuations. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling trades back and forth ahead of several BoE members’ hearings before the Treasury Committee.Traders expect that the BoE will cut interest rates by 25 bps in December.Nomura expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in December.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades sideways against its major peers on Tuesday with investors focusing on the Monetary Policy Hearings, in which several Bank of England (BoE) policymakers – including Governor Andrew Bailey – will respond to questions before the Treasury Committee regarding the latest decisions on interest rates. The hearings, which will start at around 10:00 GMT, could provide clues over the interest-rate outlook, a key driver for the Pound Sterling. Apart from Bailey, Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external members Alan Taylor and Catherine Mann will also participate in the hearings.  Beyond the hearings, investors brace for another key event: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be published on Wednesday. The inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for the BoE interest rate decision in the December meeting.  Traders see a roughly 80% that the BoE will cut interest rates again by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%, according to Reuters. This would be the second interest rate cut by the BoE in a row and the third in this year. The headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.5% after remaining flat in September on month. Annual headline inflation is estimated to have accelerated to 2.2% from the prior release of 1.7%. Economists expect the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – to grow steadily by 3.2%. Investors will also pay close attention to the service inflation data, a measure closely tracked by BoE officials when deciding on interest rates.   Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling clings to Monday’s recovery against US Dollar The Pound Sterling holds onto Monday’s recovery against the US Dollar (USD) near 1.2680 in London trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair bounced back after posting a fresh six-month low near 1.2600 as the US Dollar’s rally appears to have stalled after posting a fresh year-to-date high. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects from 107.00. The near-term outlook of the US Dollar remains firm as market participants expect the economic agenda of President-elected Donald Trump to boost inflationary pressures and prompt economic growth, a scenario that will lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver fewer interest rate cuts. Trump’s victory in both US houses (the Senate and the House and Representatives) and better-than-expected monthly Retail Sales data for October have led traders to pare back bets of an interest rate cut in the December meeting. The probability for the Fed to reduce interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% has diminished to 58.4% from 77% a month ago. Global brokerage firm Nomura expects the Fed to pause the policy-easing cycle in December. "We currently expect tariffs will drive realized inflation higher by the summer, and risks are skewed towards an earlier and more prolonged pause,” analysts at Nomura said. Nomura expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in March and June meetings next year. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling gains firm footing near 1.2600The Pound Sterling gains ground near 1.2600 against the US Dollar after discovering some buying interest. However, more broadly, the GBP/USD pair remains under pressure as it trades well below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 1.2850. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays near 30.00, suggesting a strong bearish momentum. Looking down, the psychological support of 1.2500 will be a major cushion for Pound Sterling bulls. On the upside, the Cable will face resistance near the 200-day EMA. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD may face challenges as traders expect the RBNZ to deliver a substantial rate cut next week.The US Dollar gains ground due to dampened odds of an imminent Fed rate cut.Fed’s Powell stated, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates."The NZD/USD pair trades near 0.5890 during the early European session on Tuesday, maintaining its stance amid a softer US Dollar (USD) as profit-taking tempers its recent gains. However, the pair’s upside remains capped due to growing expectations of a bumper interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) next week. Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close watch on the upcoming Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decision from China, a key trading partner of New Zealand. Market participants anticipate potential additional stimulus measures to bolster economic growth, following the recent 10 trillion Yuan debt package that lacked direct economic stimulus, further intensifying market concerns. The US Dollar (USD) may appreciate as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations for immediate rate cuts. Powell highlighted the economy's resilience, a strong labor market, and persistent inflationary pressures, stating, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." Investors are now looking for further guidance from Fed officials later this week on the future path of US interest rates. Moreover, traders anticipate that the incoming Trump administration will prioritize tax cuts and impose higher tariffs. These measures could fuel inflation, potentially slowing the pace of Fed rate cuts and supporting the US Dollar. Traders are now focused on the upcoming October US Building Permits and Housing Starts data, which is set to be released on Tuesday. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 19: In the absence of high-tier data releases, the US Dollar (USD) corrected lower to start the week. The action in financial markets remain choppy early Tuesday as investors await Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Hearings. Later in the day, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Canada will be watched closely by market participants. The US economic docket will feature Building Permits and Housing Starts figures for October. Following the impressive rally seen in the previous week, the USD Index turned south on Monday and closed the day in negative territory. In the European morning on Tuesday, the index fluctuates in a tight range above 106.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally higher after Wall Street's main indexes closed the first day of the week mixed. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.45% -0.42% 0.20% -0.50% -0.79% -0.48% -0.48% EUR 0.45%   0.20% 0.79% 0.07% -0.19% 0.09% 0.08% GBP 0.42% -0.20%   0.59% -0.13% -0.40% -0.11% -0.13% JPY -0.20% -0.79% -0.59%   -0.73% -0.95% -0.64% -0.64% CAD 0.50% -0.07% 0.13% 0.73%   -0.27% 0.02% 0.01% AUD 0.79% 0.19% 0.40% 0.95% 0.27%   0.28% 0.27% NZD 0.48% -0.09% 0.11% 0.64% -0.02% -0.28%   -0.01% CHF 0.48% -0.08% 0.13% 0.64% -0.01% -0.27% 0.00%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its November monetary policy meeting in the Asian session on Tuesday. "It is not possible to rule anything in or out regarding future changes in the cash rate," the RBA reiterated in its publication and said that the board would need more than one good quarterly inflation report to justify a rate cut. After gaining 0.7% on Monday, AUD/USD continues to edge higher and was last seen trading in positive territory above 0.6500. The broad-based USD weakness and rising crude oil prices weighed heavily on USD/CAD on Monday and the pair lost over 0.5%. In the European morning, the pair moves sideways slightly above 1.4000. Annual inflation in Canada, as measured by the change in the CPI, is forecast to rise to 1.9% in October from 1.6% in September. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato repeated on Tuesday that they are “closely watching FX moves with the utmost sense of urgency,” adding that they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive moves. USD/JPY closed marginally higher on Monday before retreating to the 154.50 area early Tuesday. BoE Governor Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will respond to questions before the Treasury Committee starting at 10:15 GMT. GBP/USD snapped a six-day losing streak on Monday but lost its bullish momentum before reaching 1.2700.EUR/USD gained more than 0.5% on Monday before going into a consolidation phase at around 1.0600 early Tuesday. Eurostat will release revisions to October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices readings in the European session.Gold gathered bullish momentum and rose nearly 2% on Monday. XAU/USD continues to stretch higher in the European morning and was last seen trading above $2,620. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP flat lines around 0.8355 in Tuesday’s early European session. ECB’s Vujcic said the risk of undershooting the inflation goal has risen. The UK GDP fell by 0.1% MoM in September, weaker than expected. The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8355 during the early European session on Tuesday. The rising bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) might drag the Euro (EUR) lower against the Pound Sterling (GBP). Investors brace for the Eurozone October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, which is due later on Tuesday.

The ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said on Monday that the danger that the ECB will fall short of its 2% inflation goal has risen, per Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras noted that the bank is almost certain to cut interest rates by a quarter point in December. 

The ECB has cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% last month and is anticipated to reduce rates further again in December at its final decision of the year. However, investors await the Eurozone HICP data for fresh impetus about the inflation outlook. If the report shows the hotter-than-expected outcome, this could dampen the hope for the ECB jumbo rate cut, which might lift the shared currency. 

On the other hand, a surprise contraction in UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for September could weigh on the GBP. The UK economy shrank by 0.1% MoM in September, following growth of just 0.2% the previous month, according to the Office for National Statistics on Friday. This figure came in weaker than the 0.2% expansion expected. 

However, Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said a rate reduction at the Bank of England’s (BOE) meeting in December now looks “improbable” as inflation concerns and rising global headwinds would likely prevent policymakers from pursuing back-to-back rate cuts. The release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on Wednesday could offer some hints about the rate cuts path for the December meeting. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.  

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/JPY may appreciate as daily chart analysis indicates a potential shift in price momentum from bearish to bullish.A bullish reversal could be possible if the nine-day EMA breaks above the 14-day EMA.A break above nine- and 14-day EMAs could cause the emergence of a bullish bias.The AUD/JPY cross remains relatively flat around 100.50 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, following a nearly 1% gain in the previous session. An analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish as the pair seeks to break above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the nine-day EMA is currently just below the 14-day EMA. An upward crossover would signal a shift in the short-term price momentum from bearish to bullish, as it indicates that recent prices are gaining strength and pushing higher compared to the longer-term trend. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the 50 level, signaling a neutral market condition. Any further movement in the AUD/JPY cross will likely determine the next clear directional trend. To the upside, the AUD/JPY cross is testing immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA around the 100.58 level, followed by the 100.61 level. A break above these levels could trigger a bullish bias, potentially pushing the currency cross toward the four-month high of 102.41, reached on November 7. On the downside, the primary support for the AUD/JPY cross is located around the recent low of 99.42. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish outlook and could drive the cross toward the psychological support level of 99.00. AUD/JPY: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.07% 0.05% -0.09% 0.06% 0.04% 0.12% 0.05% EUR -0.07%   -0.02% -0.13% -0.01% -0.03% 0.06% -0.02% GBP -0.05% 0.02%   -0.10% 0.01% -0.01% 0.08% 0.00% JPY 0.09% 0.13% 0.10%   0.15% 0.12% 0.20% 0.14% CAD -0.06% 0.00% -0.01% -0.15%   -0.02% 0.06% -0.02% AUD -0.04% 0.03% 0.01% -0.12% 0.02%   0.09% 0.03% NZD -0.12% -0.06% -0.08% -0.20% -0.06% -0.09%   -0.07% CHF -0.05% 0.02% -0.01% -0.14% 0.02% -0.03% 0.07%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF trades stronger to near 0.8835 in Tuesday’s early European session. Fed easing bets pared on Trump policy outlook, and strong US economic data. Geopolitical risks might boost the Swiss Franc and create a headwind for the pair. The USD/CHF pair edges higher to around 0.8835 during the early European session on Tuesday, bolstered by the firmer Greenback. Switzerland’s October Trade Balance will be released later on Tuesday. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Jeffrey Schmid is set to speak. 

The strong US economic data and potential inflation from proposed tariffs have fuelled speculation that the Fed would slow the path of rate reductions, supporting the US Dollar (USD). Additionally, the cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell contribute to the USD’s upside. Powell emphasized that the robust economic growth, solid job market, and inflation that remains above its 2% target mean the US central bank does not need to rush to lower interest rates. Investors await comments from the Fed officials for further cues about the US interest rate trajectory. Markets have pared bets for a 25 basis points (bps) interest-rate cut at the December meeting to less than 59%, down from 62% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch.

Nonetheless, heightened concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc. Joe Biden has allowed Ukraine to strike inside Russia with long-range US missiles for the first time, according to CNN News on Sunday. US sources said that Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, while Russia vowed to retaliate to what it called a "radical change" in the war.  Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD maintains its position as the US Dollar continues its downward correction.The US Dollar’s downside appears restrained due to dampened odds of an imminent Fed rate cut.ECB President Lagarde stated that Europe should pool its resources in areas such as defense and climate.EUR/USD remains steady with a positive bias, hovering around 1.0600 during Tuesday's Asian trading hours. The upbeat sentiment surrounding the pair is likely driven by a softer US Dollar (USD), as profit-taking follows its recent rally. However, the downside risk for the US Dollar appears limited as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations for immediate rate cuts. Powell highlighted the economy's resilience, a strong labor market, and persistent inflationary pressures, stating, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." Investors are now looking for further guidance from Fed officials later this week on the future path of US interest rates. Additionally, the Greenback may further appreciate as investors anticipate that the incoming Trump administration will prioritize tax cuts and impose higher tariffs. These measures could fuel inflation, potentially slowing the pace of Fed rate cuts. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated on Monday that Europe should consolidate its resources in areas such as defense and climate, as its productivity growth stagnates and the world becomes increasingly fragmented into competing blocs. ECB President Lagarde highlighted that Europe is falling behind in innovation and productivity compared to the US and China. According to Bloomberg, the lack of a unified digital market and insufficient venture capital investment are significant barriers to technological advancement in the region. Traders are now focused on the upcoming October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for the Euro area, set to be released on Tuesday. Attention will then shift to US Building Permits and Housing Starts data later in the North American session. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 7,115.92 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 7,084.22 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold increased to INR 82,998.67 per tola from INR 82,628.95 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 7,115.92 10 Grams 71,159.18 Tola 82,998.67 Troy Ounce 221,330.00   FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold Price Forecast: XAU/USD could run into sellers at $2,655 on the road to recoveryGold price climbs to one-week top on softer US bond yields, geopolitical tensionsGold rises as US Dollar dips on Rusia-Ukraine concernsGold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY struggles to capitalize on Monday’s recovery from a nearly one-month low.Intervention fears and geopolitical risks revive demand for the JPY and exert pressure.The BoJ rate-hike uncertainty cap gains for the JPY and helps limit losses for the cross.The EUR/JPY cross meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day's recovery move from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 162.25 region, or a nearly one-month low. The intraday slide is sponsored by the emergence of fresh buying around the Japanese Yen (JPY) and drags spot prices back closer to the 163.00 mark in the last hour, though lacks follow-through. Geopolitical tensions escalated after the Biden administration approved Ukraine’s use of long-range US weapons deeper inside Russia, which has deployed North Korean troops to reinforce its war. This, along with speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene in the FX market to prop up the domestic currency, turn out to be key factors undermining the safe-haven JPY and exerting some downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross. The shared currency, on the other hand, struggles to lure buyers amid bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the black of a bleak Eurozone economic outlook. Adding to this, US President-elect Donald Trump's protectionist policies pose additional threats to the Eurozone economy. This might continue to weigh on the Euro and suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/JPY cross is to the downside.  That said,  the uncertainty over the timing of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could act as a headwind for the JPY amid a generally positive risk tone. This, in turn, could assist the EUR/JPY cross to attract some dip-buyers and help limit the downside near the 50-day SMA. The said support should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken should pave the way for the resumption of the recent corrective slide from a multi-year top. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.  

FX option expiries for Nov 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0545 877m 1.0590 810m 1.0600 1b 1.0650 2.4b USD/CHF: USD amounts      0.8800 422m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6600 2b

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD continues to draw support from some follow-through USD profit-taking.Reduced bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts and BoE uncertainty might cap the upside.Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings.The GBP/USD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick and climbs back closer to the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction as investors opt to wait for the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearings before placing aggressive directional bets.  BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and several MPC members will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee. This will play a key role in influencing market expectations about potential interest rate adjustments going forward, which, in turn, will drive the British Pound (GBP) and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair.  The focus will then shift to the latest UK consumer inflation figures on Wednesday. In the meantime, softening US Treasury bond yields prompts some follow-through US Dollar (USD) profit-taking and drags it away from the year-to-date (YTD) top set last week. This, along with a positive risk tone, undermines the safe-haven buck and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will likely rekindle inflationary pressures and limit the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This should keep the US bond yields elevated and favors the USD bulls, which, in turn, might cap gains for the GBP/USD pair.  Moreover, the uncertainty concerning the BoE's path forward on interest rates might contribute to keeping a lid on spot prices. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has bottomed out and positioning for any meaningful recovery from sub-1.2600 levels, or a multi-month trough touched last week. Economic Indicator BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs, and associated public bodies, including the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority. Read more. Next release: Tue Nov 19, 2024 10:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: -Previous: -Source: Bank of England  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver prices advance as dollar-denominated metals become more affordable, supported by a weaker US Dollar.The grey metal finds support from safe-haven inflows as tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalate.Non-interest-bearing assets encountered headwinds after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened expectations of imminent rate cuts.Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to gain ground for the second consecutive day, trading around $31.40 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The prices of the dollar-denominated Silver recover from two-month lows as the US Dollar (USD) experiences profit-taking selling after a recent rally. This rally was fueled by expectations of fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and optimism about US economic outperformance under the incoming Trump administration. Meanwhile, safe-haven Silver is gaining traction amid rising geopolitical tensions. US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use US-made weapons for strikes deep within Russia, a move that escalated concerns in the region. In response, the Kremlin issued a warning on Monday, vowing to retaliate against what it called a reckless decision by the Biden administration. Russia had earlier cautioned that such actions could significantly increase the risk of confrontation with NATO. Non-yielding assets like Silver faced headwinds after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations of immediate rate cuts. Powell emphasized the economy's strength, a robust labor market, and ongoing inflationary pressures. He stated, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." Investors now await additional remarks from Fed officials this week for further insight into the trajectory of US interest rates. Markets are closely monitoring China's upcoming Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decision, anticipating potential additional stimulus measures to support economic growth. This follows the recent 10 trillion Yuan debt package, which did not include direct economic stimulus, heightening market concerns. As one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs for electronics, solar panels, and automotive components, China's industrial demand for Silver remains a key factor influencing its prices. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price gains follow-through with a positive traction for the second consecutive day on Tuesday.Geopolitical risks, softening of US bond yields and subdued USD demand benefit the XAU/USD.Bets for less aggressive Fed rate cuts favor the USD bulls and might cap the precious metal.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracted some haven flows after posting its steepest weekly drop in more than three years last week and snapped a six-day losing streak on Monday amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Adding to this, softening US Treasury bond yields prompted some US Dollar (USD) profit-taking following the post-US election rally to a fresh year-to-date and turned out to be another factor that benefited the non-yielding yellow metal. The USD bulls remain on the defensive during the Asian session on Tuesday and assist the Gold price in recovering further from a two-month low touched last Thursday. Meanwhile, expectations are that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will rekindle inflationary pressures and limit the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This should keep the US bond yields elevated and favors the USD bulls, which might cap the XAU/USD.  Gold price continues to attract haven flows amid geopolitical risks stemming from Russia-Ukraine conflict US President Joe Biden's decision to authorize Ukraine to use long-range American missiles against military targets inside Russia prompted some haven flows and benefited the Gold price on Monday.  The US Dollar extended its profit-taking slide from the year-to-date high touched last week on the back of retreating US Treasury bond yields and provided an additional boost to the XAU/USD.  The precious metal attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day on Tuesday, though reduced bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve might cap the upside.  US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is expected to focus on lowering taxes and raising tariffs, which could stoke inflation and limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy.  A slew of influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, recently suggested caution in cutting rates, which, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should cap the non-yielding yellow metal. Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of Building Permits and Housing Starts. Adding to this, a speech by Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid will drive the USD later during the US session.  The focus, however, will remain glued to manufacturing and service sector PMI data on Friday, which could offer early cues on how companies are reacting to the threat of Trump's proposed trade tariffs. Gold price might confront stiff resistance near 38.2% Fibo. level; the $2,600 support  is key for bullsThe overnight strong move up comes on the back of last week's resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the momentum pushed the Gold price beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent corrective decline from the all-time peak and underpins prospects for additional intraday gains. That said, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been recovering from lower levels – are yet to confirm a positive bias. Hence, any subsequent strength is more likely to face stiff resistance near the $2,634-2,635 region or the 38.2% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying, however, could trigger a short-covering rally towards the $2,655-2,657 congestion zone en route to the $2,664-2,665 area.  On the flip side, the $2,600 mark, which coincided with the 23.6% Fibo. level, now seems to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break might expose the next relevant support near the $2,569-2,568 region and eventually drag the Gold price to the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,551-2,550 area. Some follow-through selling below last week's swing low, around the $2,536 zone, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for a fall towards the $2,500 psychological mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee gains momentum in Tuesday’s Asian session. The routine interventions by the RBI support the INR; portfolio outflows and a stronger USD might cap its upside. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is set to speak later on Tuesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the rally on Tuesday, bolstered by the intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to prevent the local currency from significant depreciation. Furthermore, the recovery in crude oil prices provides some support to the INR as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. 

Nonetheless, the sustained outflow of foreign funds and the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might exert some selling pressure on the Indian Rupee. A decline in most Asian currencies also weighs on the local currency for the time being. In the absence of top-tier US economic data releases on Tuesday, the attention will be on risk sentiment and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Jeffrey Schmid speech.  Indian Rupee rebounds as RBI Intervention caps decline The Indian equity benchmark indices, the Sensex, declined 0.31% to 77,339.01 points on Monday, closing 10.05% below its record high level hit on September 27. The Nifty fell 0.34%, its longest falling streak in more than 20 months. India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $675.65 billion for the sixth week in a row, from a record high of $704 billion in late September. DBS Bank estimated India's economic growth will moderate to 6.0% in 2025 and 2026, down from 8.2% in 2024.  Moody's Ratings projected the Indian economy to grow by 7.2% in 2024, driven by a gradual recovery in household spending and easing inflation pressures.  The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index climbed to 46.0 in November, the highest since April, from 43.0 in October, beating the estimate of 44.0.  USD/INR’s outlook remains positive in the longer term The Indian Rupee trades on a stronger note on the day. The bullish outlook of the USD/INR pair prevails as the pair remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above its midline near 67.00, suggesting that the support is likely to hold rather than break. 

The first upside barrier to watch is the all-time high of 84.45. A decisive break above this level could clear the way for a move to the 85.00 psychological level.

On the flip side, the resistance-turned-support level at 84.35 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. A move below the mentioned level could expose 84.00, the round mark. Extended losses could see a drop to 83.89, the 100-day EMA.Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

 


 


 


  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price receives support from growing supply concerns due to rising geopolitical tensions.Kremlin warned to retaliate if Ukraine use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).Norway’s Equinor announced a production halt at its Johan Sverdrup Oilfield due to an onshore power outage.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around $69.20 per barrel during Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude Oil prices have gained support amid growing supply concerns over a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On Sunday, Russia launched its largest airstrike on Ukraine in nearly three months, inflicting significant damage on the country's power infrastructure.  On Sunday, US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), advanced long-range American weapons, to conduct strikes within Russia. CNN cited two US officials. In response, the Kremlin warned on Monday that it would retaliate against what it described as a reckless move by the Biden administration. Russia had previously cautioned that such actions could heighten the risk of confrontation with NATO. Crude Oil prices found support after Norway’s Equinor announced a production halt at its Johan Sverdrup Oilfield, the largest in Western Europe, due to an onshore power outage. According to the company on Monday, efforts to restore production are underway, but a timeline for resumption remains uncertain, as reported by Reuters. Last week, crude Oil prices faced downward pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations for near-term rate cuts, emphasizing the economy’s resilience, a robust labor market, and persistent inflationary challenges. Adding to the bearish sentiment, concerns about weakening demand in China, the world’s largest Oil importer, have further weighed on the Oil prices. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} An official at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, said on Tuesday that “China has ample policy room and tools to support economic recovery.” The NDRC official said he “expects China's economy to sustain recovery momentum in November and December.” Market reaction At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading modestly flat on the day near 0.6505.  Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato on Tuesday that he is “closely watching FX moves with the utmost sense of urgency.” Additional quotes Important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Will continue to take appropriate action against excessive forex moves. Absolutely no change to our stance on forex. Seeing somewhat one-sided, sharp moves on the forex market since late September. Closely watching FX moves with the utmost sense of urgency. Related newsJapan’s Akazawa: Crucial to boost pay for all generations with the economic packageBoJ’s Ueda: Japan’s economy recovering moderatelyJapanese Yen edges higher against USD; bulls seem non-committed 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD gains ground to around 1.4020 in Tuesday’s Asian session.The rising geopolitical risks support the USD. The Canadian CPI inflation report will be in the spotlight on Tuesday. The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory near 1.4020 on Tuesday during the Asian trading hours. The resurgence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in the Russia-Ukraine front boost the safe-haven currency like the Greenback. Investors will closely watch Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Tuesday.

Citing two US officials familiar with the decision, CNN News reported on Sunday that US President Joe Biden's administration has authorized Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia in a significant reversal of Washington's policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Investors will monitor the development surrounding geopolitical risks. Any signs of escalation could lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Loonie. 

Additionally, markets expect that Donald Trump’s administration will reignite inflation and slow the path of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, contributes to the USD’s upside. Futures markets hint at 58.7% odds of a Fed rate cut in December, though expectations for rate cuts through 2025 have moderated to 77 basis points (bps).

On the Loonie front, the Canadian CPI inflation is expected to rise to 1.9% YoY in October from 1.6% in the previous reading, while the monthly CPI is estimated to show an increase of 0.3%. Any signs of hotter inflation in the Canadian economy could lift the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and act as a headwind for USD/CAD.  Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

 

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa noted on Tuesday that it is “crucial to boost pay for all generations with the economic package.” He further noted that he is “aiming for cabinet approval of the economic package soon.” Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is consolidating the latest leg down just above the 154.00 level, shedding 0.36% on the day. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.02% -0.00% -0.31% 0.05% -0.00% 0.08% -0.04% EUR 0.02%   0.02% -0.28% 0.07% 0.00% 0.10% -0.02% GBP 0.00% -0.02%   -0.29% 0.05% -0.01% 0.09% -0.03% JPY 0.31% 0.28% 0.29%   0.37% 0.30% 0.37% 0.27% CAD -0.05% -0.07% -0.05% -0.37%   -0.06% 0.03% -0.09% AUD 0.00% -0.00% 0.00% -0.30% 0.06%   0.09% -0.03% NZD -0.08% -0.10% -0.09% -0.37% -0.03% -0.09%   -0.12% CHF 0.04% 0.02% 0.03% -0.27% 0.09% 0.03% 0.12%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).  

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar holds losses despite the RBA minutes highlighting the need for restrictive monetary policy.RBA Board members also emphasized that "nothing can be ruled in or out" regarding future monetary policy adjustments.The US Dollar may appreciate as the incoming Trump administration is expected to prioritize tax cuts and higher tariffs.The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure following Tuesday's release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November meeting minutes. The minutes indicate that the RBA board remains cautious about the potential for inflation to rise further, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy.RBA Board members also indicate no "immediate need" to adjust the cash rate, though they left the door open for future changes, noting that nothing can be ruled in or out. Current forecasts are based on the technical assumption that the cash rate will remain unchanged until mid-2025. The Australian Dollar gained support following hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock last week. Bullock emphasized that current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive and will remain unchanged until the central bank is confident about the inflation outlook. The US Dollar (USD) remains in a downward correction despite recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. However, the Greenback's downside may be limited as investors anticipate that the incoming Trump administration will prioritize tax cuts and higher tariffs. These measures could fuel inflation, potentially slowing the pace of Fed rate cuts. Traders are now focused on the upcoming October US Building Permits and Housing Starts data, which is set to be released on Tuesday. Australian Dollar remains under pressure due to risk-off sentiment Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts, highlighting the economy's resilience, robust labor market, and persistent inflationary pressures. Powell remarked, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." On Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that markets often overreact to changes in interest rates. Goolsbee emphasized the importance of the Fed adopting a cautious, gradual approach in moving toward the neutral rate. Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Susan Collins tempered expectations for continued rate cuts in the near term while maintaining market confidence in a potential rate reduction in December. Collins stated, "I don't see a big urgency to lower rates, but I want to preserve a healthy economy." US Retail Sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month in October, exceeding the market consensus of 0.3%. Additionally, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for November posted an unexpected surge, coming in at 31.2 compared to the anticipated 0.7 decline, signaling robust manufacturing activity. China’s Retail Sales rose 4.8% year-over-year in October, surpassing the expected 3.8% and the 3.2% increase seen in September. Meanwhile, Industrial Production grew by 5.3% YoY, below the forecasted 5.6% and the 5.4% growth recorded in the previous period. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia held steady at 4.1% in October for the third month in a row, matching market expectations. However, employment change data revealed only 15.9K new jobs added in October, which fell short of the anticipated 25.0K. Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations dropped to 3.8% in November, down from 4.0% in the previous month, reaching the lowest level since October 2021. Australian Dollar tests 0.6500, with the next key resistance located at the nine-day EMA The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6500 on Tuesday, signaling short-term bearish momentum on the daily chart as it remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the 50 mark, reaffirming the bearish trend. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair faces significant support around the 0.6400 level. A decisive break below this psychological barrier could amplify selling pressure, potentially driving the pair toward its yearly low of 0.6348, last recorded on August 5. The 0.6500 level serves as immediate resistance. A sustained move above this threshold might push the AUD/USD pair toward the nine-day EMA at 0.6517, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6541. Surpassing these levels could pave the way for a rally toward the three-week high of 0.6687.  AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.00% 0.01% -0.34% 0.06% 0.07% 0.18% -0.04% EUR 0.00%   0.02% -0.33% 0.09% 0.07% 0.21% -0.03% GBP -0.01% -0.02%   -0.33% 0.05% 0.05% 0.17% -0.04% JPY 0.34% 0.33% 0.33%   0.42% 0.42% 0.52% 0.32% CAD -0.06% -0.09% -0.05% -0.42%   0.00% 0.12% -0.10% AUD -0.07% -0.07% -0.05% -0.42% -0.01%   0.12% -0.10% NZD -0.18% -0.21% -0.17% -0.52% -0.12% -0.12%   -0.21% CHF 0.04% 0.03% 0.04% -0.32% 0.10% 0.10% 0.21%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator RBA Meeting Minutes The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD. Read more. Last release: Tue Nov 19, 2024 00:30 Frequency: WeeklyActual: -Consensus: -Previous: -Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.

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Apart from this, the risk-on mood – as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets – might contribute to capping the safe-haven JPY.  That said, geopolitical risks and softening US Treasury bond yields could prevent a significant downside for the lower-yielding JPY. Furthermore, speculations that Japanese authorities could intervene to prop up the domestic currency might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. The focus now shifts to the consumer inflation data from Japan and the global PMI prints, due later this week.  The Japanese Yen draws support from a combination of factors; upside seems limited amid BoJ uncertainty Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the economy was progressing towards sustained wages-driven inflation, leaving the door open for further monetary policy tightening.  Ueda, however, provided few clues on whether the BoJ would raise rates in December and said that the gradual approach to adjusting policy is contingent on economic activity and price trends. Geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East offer some support to the safe-haven Japanese Yen amid intervention fears.  Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned last Friday that the government will scrutinize the FX market with very high vigilance and take appropriate action against excessive moves. A modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields prompted some follow-through US Dollar profit-taking, after the post-US election blowout rally to a fresh year-to-date peak set last week.  US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is expected to focus on lowering taxes and raising tariffs, which could stoke inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates. A slew of influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, recently suggested caution in cutting rates, which, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should cap the lower-yielding JPY.  Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due for release on Friday and will influence the JPY price dynamics ahead of the global manufacturing and service sector PMI prints. USD/JPY might continue to attract dip-buyers near 153.85 pivotal support, bullish potential seems intactFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair's failure to find acceptance above the 155.00 psychological mark on Monday and the subsequent pullback warrants caution for bullish traders. Spot prices, however, might continue to find support near the 153.85 region on the back of positive oscillators on the daily chart. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for additional losses towards the 153.25 region en route to the 153.00 mark and the next relevant support near the 152.70-152.65 area. A convincing break below the latter might expose the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance breakpoint, now turned support, currently pegged near the 151.90-151.85 region. On the flip side, the 155.00 mark, followed by the overnight swing high, around the 155.35 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will reaffirm the near-term positive outlook, which should allow the USD/JPY pair to surpass the 155.70 intermediate hurdle and aim towards reclaiming the 156.00 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards retesting the multi-month top, around the 156.75 region touched last Friday. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

The People's Bank of China set the onshore Yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1911 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1907 and 7.2305 Reuters estimate. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its November monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, highlighting that the board remains vigilant to upside inflation risks and believes policy needs to remain restrictive. Key quotes The board saw no "immediate need" to change the cash rate.
It is not possible to rule anything in or out regarding future changes in the cash rate.
Forecasts are based on the technical assumption that the cash rate will stay steady until mid-2025.
The board considered what might warrant a future change in the cash rate or a prolonged steady period.
The board discussed scenarios where policy would need to stay restrictive for longer or tighten further.
The supply gap might be wider than assumed, necessitating tighter policy.
Rates might need to rise if the board judged that policy was not as restrictive as assumed.
The board has "minimal tolerance" for inflation above forecasts.
The board would need more than one good quarterly inflation report to justify a rate cut.
The board considered scenarios where a rate cut would be justified, including weak consumption.
A sharp deterioration in the labor market or forward-looking data could require an easing of policy.
The board discussed risks from abroad, including U.S. economic policy and China’s stimulus measures.
The outlook for U.S. policy is uncertain, with some scenarios indicating significantly lower global growth and higher inflation.
The outlook for China has been upgraded thanks to stimulus, though the impact on Australia could still be modest.  Market reaction to the RBA Meeting Minutes At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading 0.10% lower on the day to trade at 0.6500. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that Europe should pool its resources in areas like defense and climate as its productivity growth falters and the world fragments into rival blocs, per Bloomberg. Key quotes Europe is falling behind in innovation and productivity compared to the U.S. and China.

EU specializes in outdated technologies; only 4 of the world’s top 50 tech firms are European.

Lack of unified digital market and venture capital investment hinders technological progress.

Global trade fragmentation and competition with China threaten Europe’s open economy.

EU's declining world trade share and increased reliance on foreign venture capitalists for tech funding.

Global trade fragmentation and competition with China threaten Europe’s open economy.

EU's declining world trade share and increased reliance on foreign venture capitalists for tech funding.

Slowing productivity growth reduces tax revenue potential, threatening funding for pensions, climate, and defense needs.

Estimated €1 trillion annually required for climate, innovation, and security investments. Market reaction At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading 0.01% lower on the day to trade at 1.0590. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD trades with a bearish bias near 0.5890 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. Markets pared expectations of future rate cuts by the US Fed. ANZ analysts forecast a 50 bps rate cut from the RBNZ at its November meeting next week. The NZD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.5890 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair edges lower amid the consolidation of the Greenback. Later on Tuesday, investors will keep an eye on the US Building Permits and Housing Starts for October. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of currencies, retraces from a one-year high above 107.00 to near 106.20. However, the downside of the Greenback might be capped as investors expect that the incoming Trump administration would focus on lowering taxes and raising tariffs, which could stoke inflation and slow the path of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). 

Boston Fed president Susan Collins said on Friday that rate reductions could be paused as soon as the December meeting, but it depends on upcoming data on jobs and inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets have priced in nearly 58.7% of the 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the December meeting. 

On the Kiwi front, the rising expectation of jumbo interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) next week weighs on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). ANZ analysts forecast a 50 basis points (bps) reduction from the RBNZ on November 27. “We expect a 50bp cut to 4.25% next week. That would be consistent with RBNZ's October messaging, economists’ forecasts, and market pricing. Data since the October Monetary Policy Review has been mixed, but no data looks likely to upset the apple cart,” noted ANZ analysts.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD clawed back further gains on Monday, adding back 0.65%.Despite near-term bullish momentum, Fiber remains buried deep in the bear zone.With another week of tepid economic data on the books, Euro remains exposed to market flows.EUR/USD pared away further losses on Monday, rising nearly two-thirds of a percent as markets ease off the Greenback gas pedal and give the Euro a chance to come up for air. Except for a midweek appearance from European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde on Wednesday, the economic calendar remains tepid until Friday’s global rolling release of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures due on both sides of the pond. Euro markets will be sent adrift of general market flows until Wednesday, when ECB President Lagarde appears on Wednesday to deliver the opening remarks at the ECB’s Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy. The ECB is currently caught between a rock and a hard place as European inflation continues to hold stickier than European policymakers had initially expected, and the broader European economy continues to tilt lopsided. The rest of this week’s economic calendar remains a tepid affair on both sides of the Atlantic, though Fiber traders will be keeping their heads low on Friday when S&P PMI business activity forecasts land during both the European and US market sessions. European Manufacturing PMI figures are expected to hold steady at 46.0 MoM, with the European Services PMI component forecast to rise to 51.8 from 51.6. On the US side, overall PMIs are broadly expected to rise, with Manufacturing expected to increase to 48.8 in November from 48.5, and Services expected to tick higher to 55.2 from 55.0. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD tilted into the bullish side on Monday, reaching for the 1.0600 handle after the pair dug in its heels late last week near 1.0500. The pair still remains buried deep in bear country, with price action stuck far below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0884.Fiber found a meager bounce from its lowest prices in over a year, after falling near 6.5% from September’s peaks just north of the 1.1200 handle. With the pair steeply off of its highs, a continued recovery is likely to run into technical resistance between 1.0700 and 1.0800. EUR/USD daily chartEuro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD holds steady around 0.6505 in Monday’s early Asian session. The stronger US economic data and cautious comments from Fed officials might lift the USD. Trump's policies on taxes, tariffs could weigh on the Aussie.The AUD/USD pair trades flat near 0.6505 amid the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Investors will monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes, which is due later on Tuesday. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of currencies, currently trades around 106.20 after retreating from a more than one-year high last week of 107.07. The Greenback struggles to gain ground as the Trump trade seems to lose momentum. However, the stronger US economic data and cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cap the upside for the USD in the near term. 

In a light week for US economic data, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index climbed to 46.0 in November, the highest since April, from 43.0 in October, beating the estimation of 44.0.

On the Aussie front, Donald Trump has threatened to implement 60% tariffs on exports from China as he seeks to protect US companies and jobs. The likely negative spillovers from Trump’s policies might drag the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower as China is a major trading partner of Australia. 

Investors brace for the RBA Meeting Minutes for more cues on future interest rates. The hawkish tone about the inflationary outlook for the Australian economy could lift the Aussie against the USD for the time being.  Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD found a reprieve from recent bearish momentum.Cable snapped a six-day losing streak, recovering a scant half of a percent.UK CPI inflation figures due in the midweek market session.GBP/USD climbed 0.5% on Monday, kicking off the fresh trading week with a bullish recovery that ended a six-day losing streak and paring back recent losses to send price action back toward the 1.2700 handle. Gains in Cable bids are owing more to a general easing in one-sided Greenback momentum than any intrinsic strength in the Pound Sterling, with GBP traders hunkering down for this week’s fresh update in UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures. It was a quiet start to the trading week with a limited economic data docket on Monday. Markets twisted into risk appetite recovery mode, easing bullish pressures that have bolstered the US Dollar across the board in recent weeks. The Bank of England (BoE) will warm up Cable action on Tuesday with the UK central bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report Hearings slated for Tuesday, but GBP traders will be focusing on Wednesday’s UK CPI print for October. Markets forecast annualized UK CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.2% YoY in October from the previous print of 1.7%, while core UK CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.2% YoY. Markets are getting a nice breather from high-impact US economic data this week, though Cable traders will be keeping an eye out for Friday’s UK Retail Sales update, as well as S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures due on both sides of the pond to wrap up the trading week. GBP/USD price forecastThe Pound Sterling dug in its heels and recovered a meager 0.5% on Monday, but cumulative losses still see Cable mired in bear country south of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2850. GBP/USD tapped multi-month lows at the 1.2600 handle last Friday, in a complete reversal of the pair’s multi-year highs set in September of this year. The pair shed 6.25% top-to-bottom from September’s peak at 1.3434, and a near-term bullish bounce could see a fresh round of short positions collecting between 1.2700 and 1.2800. GBP/USD daily chartPound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Technical outlook shows silver below the 50-day SMA at $31.54, with potential resistance at $32.00 and $32.95.Current market dynamics could push silver towards $33.00 if upward momentum continues.Bearish control remains if price drops below $30.13, key supports at $30.00 and September 6 low of $27.69.Silver prices soar late in the New York session, trading with gains of over 3% at around $31.16 after bouncing off daily lows of $30.24. A weak US Dollar and falling US Treasury yields augmented appetite for precious metals, which halted their slide after the US Presidential Election. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook Silver’s uptrend remains intact despite trading below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.54.  Although it has printed a lower low beneath the October 8 swing low of $30.13, sellers need the grey’s metal price to stay below the 50-day SMA. If that’s not achieved, the next resistance would be $32.00, followed by the October 4 peak at $32.95. On further strength, $33.00 would be up next. On the other hand, XAG/USD is slumping below $30.13, and sellers are in charge. The next support would be $30.00, followed by the Intermediate support seen at $27.69, the September 6 low. Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain bearishly biased, though in the short term, some upside is seen. XAG/USD Price Chart – DailySilver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.