Forex News Timeline

14:43 EUR/JPY Price Prediction: November bear trend unfolds
EUR/JPY staircases down from its Halloween peak as it unfolds in a short-term downtrend during November.

EUR/JPY is declining in a short-term downtrend which started in November. The pair is likely to continue lower given technical analysis theory. EUR/JPY staircases down from its Halloween peak as it unfolds in a short-term downtrend during November. The odds favor an extension lower given the technical analysis theory that “the trend is your friend”. EUR/JPY Daily Chart The next downside target is at the 158.11 September 30 swing low. A break below the 159.90 low of the day would provide confirmation. Alternatively traders might look at a lower timeframe chart such as the 1-hour for a pullback – perhaps a three-wave ABC – to provide a lower risk entry-point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is flirting with the oversold zone below 30. If it closes below 30 the pair will be considered oversold and short holders are advised not to add to their positions. A deeper sell-off could even take EUR/JPY down to 154.00 – 155.00 August-September lows.

14:42 EUR/USD: EUR slumps on weak PMI data – Scotibank
The Euro (EUR) plunged in response to poor macro data reports earlier.

The Euro (EUR) plunged in response to poor macro data reports earlier. German and French PMI data for November nearly all disappointed expectations; only German Manufacturing bettered consensus estimates but the data here remained quite weak (43.2, from October’s 43.0). EUR slumps to near two-year low “Preliminary Eurozone data looked very poor as a result, with Services and the Composite reading dropping sharply on the month and falling back under 50 (to 49.2 and 48.1 respectively). Manufacturing also dropped to 45.2. Weakening growth momentum boosted expectations that the ECB will cut rates more aggressively next month.” “Dec swaps added around 10bps of expected easing from yesterday and are pricing in 38bps of cuts following the data. The EUR is consolidating significant, intraday losses above the early European low around 1.0335 but the broader undertone in spot remains very soft.” “EUR losses from the early week consolidation high near 1.06 do not look complete and a weekly close under the 2023 low (1.0447) would edge risks squarely towards more significant, medium-term losses for the EUR in the medium term. Minor EUR rebounds to the mid/upper 1.04s are likely to attract strong selling interest for now.

14:39 USD/CAD: CAD softer but outperforms most peers – Scotiabank
USD/CAD got caught in the crossfire of the hefty US Dollar (USD) advance against the European currencies earlier, rising quickly from the mid/upper 1.39s to an intraday high near 1.4020.

USD/CAD got caught in the crossfire of the hefty US Dollar (USD) advance against the European currencies earlier, rising quickly from the mid/upper 1.39s to an intraday high near 1.4020. The CAD was, however, able to add to this week’s gain on the EUR to test 1.45 (taking losses for EUR/CAD for the week to 2.7% from Monday’s peak), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR/CAD plunge extends to 1.45 “While the CAD is one of the better performers on the day so far among the G10 pairs, it remains susceptible to broader USD strength. Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.4% in September, in line with the flash estimate released with August’s 0.4% M/M increase. Note Scotia is a bit above consensus at 0.5% M/M.” “The Federal government announced a temporary sales tax holiday and one-time rebate for most Canadian households yesterday to prop up its support in parliament and among unenthusiastic voters. The breaks will provide a very marginal boost to consumption.” “USD gains from the mid-1.39 support zone have stalled around 1.4015/20 minor resistance (Wednesday’s high). The rebound in price from yesterday's low is sufficient to signal a short-term low is in for funds at least, I think. The USD may consolidate around 1.40 ahead of the weekend but topside risks are building again and a push above 1.4020 in the next few sessions should prompt a further rise to retest the recent peaks around 1.41.”

14:34 USD surges on weak European data – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week on a strong note. The DXY raced to a new, two-year high overnight in response to weak European data but has conceded a lot of those gains ahead of North American trading, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week on a strong note. The DXY raced to a new, two-year high overnight in response to weak European data but has conceded a lot of those gains ahead of North American trading, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. DXY reaches highest in two years “With the US Thanksgiving break coming up next week, some additional squaring up of USD longs would not surprise. But short-term losses in the USD broadly should not be confused with the USD plateauing. In contrast to Europe especially, US macro-economic data reports remain relatively firm—there has been no downturn in the positive run in the US data surprise index—and market expectations for Fed easing continue to get reined back whereas European policy easing bets have picked up.” “Minor USD dips in the next few days are likely to remain well-supported, I believe and the USD is likely to remain firm into the FOMC decision on December 18th at least. The DXY’s push (and, so far, hold) above 107.35, the high reached last September is significant. The low 107 are is important technical resistance because last year’s high effectively represented a test (and rejection) of the 50% retracement (107.2) of the 2022/23 drop in the index.” “A sustained push through the low 107 zone signifies a bullish break out of the sideways range the index has held since late 2002 and sets the index up for deeper retracement/ rebound towards 109/111 in Q1 and ultimately perhaps a retest of the 2022 peak in the index at 114.78.”

14:14 Crude Oil tries to claim $70 as geopolitics supports price
Crude Oil price steadies on Friday and tries to claim the $70 level after surging over 4.5% so far this week, fueled by fresh escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are rushing to get the tactical upper hand ahead of possible resolution

14:07 The recovery rally in the Gold market is likely to take a breather – Commerzbank
The Gold price has also recovered more than half of its losses since the end of October and is once again trading at $2,700 per troy ounce, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

The Gold price has also recovered more than half of its losses since the end of October and is once again trading at $2,700 per troy ounce, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Platinum group metals are cheaper than at the start of the year “In view of the threat of an escalation in the war in Ukraine, Gold is in demand as a safe haven. This is also shown by the inflows into ETFs in recent days. The Silver price has risen significantly this year in the wake of the Gold price and is also trading almost 30% higher than at the beginning of the year.” “The picture is different for the Platinum group metals, which are cheaper than at the beginning of the year. This is another reason why they have catch-up potential for the coming year. In our view, the price of Platinum in particular should rise significantly, as the market is likely to be in deficit for the third year in a row in 2025.” “This will probably be confirmed by the World Platinum Investment Council, which will present an initial forecast for 2025 in its quarterly report next Tuesday. In its medium-term five-year outlook from September, the WPIC had assumed that supply would increase after declining in the previous two years. However, the increase is not expected to be enough to close the gap, as demand will also rise slightly.”

14:01 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.04% below forecasts (0.17%) in November
Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.04% below forecasts (0.17%) in November

14:01 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (1%) in 3Q
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (1%) in 3Q

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation above forecasts (0.17%) in November: Actual (0.23%)
Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation above forecasts (0.17%) in November: Actual (0.23%)

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.37%, below expectations (0.49%) in November
Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.37%, below expectations (0.49%) in November

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (1.5%) in 3Q: Actual (1.6%)
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (1.5%) in 3Q: Actual (1.6%)

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.43% below forecasts (0.49%) in November
Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.43% below forecasts (0.49%) in November

13:59 Swiss Gold exports reflect weak demand for Gold in Asia – Commerzbank
The Swiss Federal Customs Authority published data on Gold exports in October this week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The Swiss Federal Customs Authority published data on Gold exports in October this week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Gold demand in Western countries is picking up “These revealed very different trends. Deliveries to China were significantly weaker at just 5 tons. Virtually no Gold was exported to Hong Kong. On the other hand, there was an increase in exports to India. However, the level in October was still comparatively low at 11.7 tons. Slightly more Gold was delivered to the US than in the previous month.” “However, the inflows of 30 tons into the US-listed Gold ETFs reported by the World Gold Council (WGC) in October would have suggested a higher figure than the reported 9.4 tons. Very surprising is the strong increase in Swiss Gold exports to the UK to 31.9 tons, although the Gold ETFs listed there recorded outflows in October according to the WGC.” “All in all, the picture of subdued Gold demand in Asia is confirmed, while Gold demand in Western countries is picking up.”

13:56 Concerns about supply disruptions cause oil prices to rise – Commerzbank
Oil prices have risen noticeably over the past few days. Brent climbed to $74.8 per barrel in the morning, gaining almost 5% since the beginning of the week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Oil prices have risen noticeably over the past few days. Brent climbed to $74.8 per barrel in the morning, gaining almost 5% since the beginning of the week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. The conflict in Ukraine escalates “This week's rise in oil prices was probably triggered by the latest escalation in the war in Ukraine, which has now been going on for more than 1,000 days. In recent days, Russia has carried out heavy attacks on the energy infrastructure and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Ukraine has responded by attacking targets in Russia with longer-range weapons systems provided by the West.” “This raises concerns that energy supplies from Russia could be interrupted if Ukraine targets refineries or export terminals in Russia, which has already happened in the past. Three refineries in Russia recently had to suspend or reduce their processing, as Reuters reported, citing five industry sources. The reasons given included deteriorating margins as a result of higher local crude oil prices and more expensive financing conditions.” “In addition, the three refineries mentioned have already been hit by Ukrainian drones this year, which has reduced their processing capacity. The prospect of lower Russian diesel exports also caused the gasoil crack spread to rise to just under $19 per barrel this week. The last time it was this high was at the beginning of August.”

13:50 USD/CNH: The major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach – UOB Group
The US Dollar (USD) could to rise to 7.2630; the major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach.

The US Dollar (USD) could to rise to 7.2630; the major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. Momentum is beginning to slow 24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we were of the view that ‘there is scope for USD to rise to 7.2630’. However, USD rose less that expected to 7.2598, closing largely unchanged at 7.2559 (+0.08%). The underlying tone still seems firm, and we continue to hold the view that USD could rise to 7.2630. The major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach. The mild upward pressure is intact provided that 7.2370 is not breached (minor support is at 7.2440).” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After expecting a higher USD for more than a week, we indicated on Monday (18 Nov, spot at 7.2350) that ‘momentum is beginning to slow, and if USD breaks below 7.2000 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.’ USD traded in a relatively quiet manner of the past few days, and our view remains unchanged. However, the ‘strong support’ level has edged higher to 7.2100 from 7.2000.”

13:46 TRY: Unexpectedly dovish – Commerzbank
The Turkish central bank (CBT) held rates unchanged yesterday, as had been unanimously expected, but turned somewhat dovish in its language, contrary to our expectation.

The Turkish central bank (CBT) held rates unchanged yesterday, as had been unanimously expected, but turned somewhat dovish in its language, contrary to our expectation. CBT removed some language related to inflation uncertainty from its statement and seemed to emphasise disinflationary developments over and above other risks. Most central banks tend to state, generically, that they will maintain a tight monetary stance and ensure all other measures until inflation expectations had fully converged – CBT also conveys this, of course – but such a generic promise is not an assurance that the CB will not lower rates, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. USD/TRY surpasses the 34.50 level earlier this week “We can witness within regional examples, for example the Czech National Bank, that a CB can steadily cut rates but still call its policy restrictive. In this sense, if CBT were to cut the interest rate from 50% to 45%, it could possibly claim that 45% still makes for a very restrictive monetary policy. A play with words mostly.” “In our view specifically, a rate cut already at the next meeting (26 December) would qualify as premature. This is because we have only had one month of underlying inflation moderation (October). We repeat on these pages that the fresh rate of price increase (month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted) is still far too rapid in Turkey – and the economy has barely begun to cool down. Some measured rate cuts would be justified as and when a clear disinflationary trend has been established at underlying level (not year-on-year rate of change).” “The idea of immediate rate cuts may trigger speculation about whether or not there was pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan – which would be all negative for the lira. USD/TRY surpassed our 34.50 year-end forecast earlier this week, and we may have to revise our 2025 target higher in the event that CBT’s future actions appear ‘pre-ordained’ rather than data-dependent.”

13:46 JPY: The price of rice – Commerzbank
The statistics on Japanese inflation have a peculiarity. In most countries, the categories of food and energy are excluded when calculating core inflation.

The statistics on Japanese inflation have a peculiarity. In most countries, the categories of food and energy are excluded when calculating core inflation. This is because there is a general belief that monetary policy can have little influence on the demand for food and energy and that prices should therefore be looked at in isolation, where it is assumed that they can be influenced. In Japan, by contrast, only fresh food, i.e. milk, vegetables and fruit, is excluded from the comparable core rate. All other food remains in, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Rice prices in Japan are rising very sharply “The difference is quite considerable. While fresh food only accounts for around 4% of the basket of goods used to calculate inflation, all other food accounts for a further 22.3%. Most of the time, however, the difference is not particularly large, because most of the fluctuations actually come from fresh food, so the core rate is not distorted too much by the other foods. But only most of the time.” “Because right now, rice prices in Japan are rising very sharply. In October, the annual rate of change for rice was 58.9%, up from 44.7% the previous month. And such high rates of price increases do have the potential to distort the overall rate. While the overall rate of inflation in Japan fell from 2.5% to 2.3% in October, according to data published earlier today, it would have fallen by 0.3 percentage points (from 2.3% to 2.0%) without the rise in rice prices.” “In the end, it remains: Inflation in Japan continues to be on a steady downward trend, which is repeatedly supported by special factors such as the current development of rice prices, but ultimately shows little sign of stabilising above 2%. So there are still few arguments from this side for the Bank of Japan to raise key rates over the next few months. This should become sufficiently clear by next year at the latest, and continue to weigh on the JPY.”

13:42 USD/JPY: Decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 153.30 – UOB Group
Bias for the US Dollar (USD) is tilted to the downside; any decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 153.30.

Bias for the US Dollar (USD) is tilted to the downside; any decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 153.30. In the longer run, USD is expected to trade in a range, likely between 153.30 and 156.50, UOB Group’s FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. USD is expected to trade in a range 24-HOUR VIEW: “After USD rose to 155.88 on Wednesday and then pulled back, we indicated yesterday (Tuesday), when it was at 155.25, that it ‘could pull back further, but any decline is likely limited to a test of 154.35.’ Our view of a pullback was not wrong, even though USD declined more than expected to 153.90. Although downward momentum has not increased much, the bias for USD is still tilted to the downside. However, the major support at 153.30 is unlikely to come under threat (there is another support at 153.70). Resistance is at 154.70, followed by 155.00.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (21 Nov, spot at 155.25), we indicated that USD ‘is expected to trade in a range, likely between 153.30 and 156.50.’ We continue to hold the same view. That said, downward momentum has increased somewhat, and the near-term bias is for USD to test the 153.30 support level.”

13:33 RUB: US sanctions more systemic banks – Commerzbank
US OFAC announced additional sanctions on Russia yesterday, including on systemic banks which had hitherto been exempt because of the energy trade.

US OFAC announced additional sanctions on Russia yesterday, including on systemic banks which had hitherto been exempt because of the energy trade. The Ruble exchange rate depreciated noticeably in recent days. In total, around fifty Russian banks with connections to the global financial system, and fifteen officials were added to the sanctioned list, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Ruble exchange rate depreciates noticeably “The move may be viewed as the combination of ‘outgoing’ acts by the Biden administration to secure policies in place which are closer to its own ideology (and could have become unlikely under the next administration) – and some practical escalation in view of the military escalation taking place on the battlefield (use of new missiles).” “At this stage, the USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rate fixes do not respond much to external sanctions news, nor to domestic news about central bank rate hikes. This is because capital flows cannot occur in hard currencies in response to such events. Nevertheless, to the extent that a weak fundamental link still exists via energy and commodity trade, the Ruble exchange rate depreciated noticeably over this past week as the situation escalated.” “This would not be so obvious by looking at the US dollar cross alone, because the dollar itself has gained so strongly against EM currencies. But it becomes obvious by looking at EUR/RUB which also has been rising since mid-November.”

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD: $657.89B (November 11) vs previous $675.65B
India FX Reserves, USD: $657.89B (November 11) vs previous $675.65B

13:29 AUD/USD bounces back to near 0.6500 as USD gives up majority of gains
The AUD/USD pair recovers more than half of its intraday losses and rebounds to near the psychological figure of 0.6500 in Friday’s European session.

13:24 NZD/USD: Likely to edge lower – UOB Group
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure; it is likely to edge lower, possibly testing 0.5835 before the risk of a rebound increases.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure; it is likely to edge lower, possibly testing 0.5835 before the risk of a rebound increases. In the longer run, the underlying tone has softened, but any decline is likely part of a lower trading range of 0.5815/0.5905, UOB Group’s FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. NZD to test 0.5835 before the risk of a rebound increases 24-HOUR VIEW: “On Wednesday, NZD dropped to 0.5865. Yesterday, when NZD was at 0.5880, we were of the view that it ‘could retest 0.5865 before a rebound is likely.’ We indicated that ‘the strong support at 0.5850 is unlikely to come under threat.’ NZD weakened more than expected as it tested the 0.5850 support (low has been 0.5850). As downward momentum is increasing, NZD is unlikely to rebound. Instead, it is likely to edge lower, possibly testing 0.5835 before the risk of a rebound increases again. The next support at 0.5815 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.5875; a breach of 0.5885 would mean that the mild downward pressure has eased.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted two days (20 Nov, spot at 0.5910) that ‘upward momentum is beginning to build.’ We added, ‘Provided that NZD remains above 0.5850 (‘strong support’ level), it could rise gradually to 0.5960.’ Yesterday, NZD dropped to 0.5850. The buildup in momentum has dissipated. While the underlying tone has softened, any decline is likely part of a lower trading range of 0.5815/0.5905. In other words, NZD is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5815.”

13:09 USD/SGD: 2-way trades – OCBC
USD/SGD rebounded as markets continue to trade 2-way, caught between the forces of heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties associated with Trump presidency.

USD/SGD rebounded as markets continue to trade 2-way, caught between the forces of heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties associated with Trump presidency. Swings in RMB, JPY continued to drive USDSGD in the near term. Pair was last seen at 1.3472, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Technical patterns suggest signs of bearish pullback “Daily momentum is mild bullish, but RSI continues to show some signs of turning lower. Bearish divergence on MACD appears to be playing out. Technical patterns suggest signs of bearish pullback in the near term. Support at 1.3340 (200 DMA), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low). Resistance at 1.3490, 1.3520 levels.” “MTI revised 2024 growth forecast higher to around 3.5%, up from 2 – 3% previously. For 2025, MTI looks for growth at 1 – 3%. MTI expects growth in Spore’s key trading partners to ease slightly from 2024 levels, especially for the US and China, and flagged that global economic uncertainties have risen, including uncertainty over the policies of the incoming US administration, with the risks tilted to the downside.” “The downside risks cited included 1/ a further escalation of geopolitical risks (including in the Middle East as well as trade tensions among major economies could lead to higher prices and production costs, as well as greater policy uncertainty, which in turn could weigh on global investment, trade and growth, and 2/ disruptions to the global disinflation process could prompt tighter financial conditions for longer and the desynchronisation of monetary policies could trigger latent vulnerabilities in financial systems.”

12:37 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD aims to stabilize above $31 amid firm safe-haven bid
Silver price (XAG/USD) strives to establish above $31.00 in Friday’s European session.

12:29 AUD/USD: To trade in a range of 0.6490/0.6535 – UOB Group
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range of 0.6490/0.6535.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range of 0.6490/0.6535. In the longer run, if AUD breaks below 0.6470, it would mean it is not rebounding further, UOB Group’s FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. AUD has a chance of breaking below 0.6470 24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we expected AUD to trade between 0.6485 and 0.6535. AUD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (0.6498/0.6532), closing largely unchanged at 0.6511 (+0.09%). The price action still appears to be part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect a range of 0.6490/0.6535.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from two days ago (20 Nov, spot at 0.6530), we highlighted that ‘the current price action is part of a rebound that could reach 0.6560, possibly 0.6600.’ AUD has not been able to make any headway on the upside. From here, if AUD breaks below 0.6470 (‘strong support’ level previously at 0.6460), it would indicate that it is not rebounding further.”

12:23 Gold rallies back above $2,700 on inflaming Russia-Ukraine tensions
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies for the fifth day in a row, making it a clean-sweep of green daily candlesticks for the week so far.

12:15 DXY: Prelim PMIs on tap today – OCBC
The US Dollar (USD) remains better bid overnight. DXY was last above 107, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

The US Dollar (USD) remains better bid overnight. DXY was last above 107, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact “Escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine was one of the major drivers. Elsewhere, US data was mixed as existing home sales and jobless claims came in better than expected while Philly Fed business outlook slumped. On Fedpseaks, Goolsbee said he sees interest rates moving ‘a fair bit lower’ over next year.” “Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Bearish divergence on daily MACD observed. We are still not ruling out the risk of technical retracement lower. Resistance at 107.40 (2023 high). Support at 106.20, 105.60 (76.4% fibo) and 104.50/60 levels (21DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low).” Day ahead watch Prelim PMIs, Uni of Michigan sentiment data (tomorrow) before core PCE (next Wed). Firmer prints may add to USD strength while softer print should keep a leash on USD bulls.”

12:13 GBP/USD: the next significant support at 1.2490 is out of reach – UOB Group
A break of 1.2565 will not be surprising; the next significant support at 1.2490 is not expected to come into view for now.

A break of 1.2565 will not be surprising; the next significant support at 1.2490 is not expected to come into view for now. In the longer run, momentum received a boost; GBP is likely to break below 1.2565. The next level to monitor is 1.2490, UOB Group’s FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. The next level to monitor is 1.2490 24-HOUR VIEW: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘further range trading appears likely, even though the softened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 1.2615/1.2685.’ The sudden plunge that sent GBP to a low of 1.2577 was surprising. Given the rapid increase in momentum, a break of 1.2565 will not be surprising. However, deeply oversold conditions could indicate that the next significant support at 1.2490 is not expected to come into view for now. To sustain the momentum, USD must remain below 1.2640 (minor resistance is at 1.2615).” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative view in GBP since early last week. On Wednesday (20 Nov), when GBP was at 1.2685, we pointed out that ‘downward momentum is beginning to slow.’ We added, ‘a break above 1.2725 would mean that the major support at 1.2565 is out of reach.’ GBP subsequently rose briefly to 1.2713, and then pulled back. Yesterday, in a sudden move, GBP plunged to a low of 1.2577. Not surprisingly, downward momentum received a boost. From here, GBP is likely to break below 1.2565. The next level to monitor is 1.2490. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 1.2665 from 1.2725.”

12:01 US Dollar surges to two-year high as Eurozone PMIs disappoint
The US Dollar (USD) jumps on Friday to its highest level in two years, with the DXY US Dollar Index popping above 108.00, as Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone signaled that the region’s economy fell back into contraction in November.

11:59 USD: Moderately hawkish remarks from Williams – ING
Yesterday’s US Dollar (USD) rally led to a break below the key psychological 1.05 EUR/USD support and an exploration above 107.0 in DXY.

Yesterday’s US Dollar (USD) rally led to a break below the key psychological 1.05 EUR/USD support and an exploration above 107.0 in DXY. There’s no one single driver of the USD move, as that was probably a combination of multiple factors, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. DXY looks more likely to consolidate above 107.0 “Markets are clearly taking the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war more seriously, which is favouring a broader rotation to haven assets like the dollar. On the macro side, jobless claims unexpectedly slowed, although continuing claims accelerated and both the Leading Index and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook disappointed. It was, however, some Fedspeak that likely encouraged USD buying as New York Fed President John Williams – not usually a hawk – said the US is ‘not quite there yet’ on inflation and that the jobs market needs to cool further for easing.” “Today, PMIs across developed markets can set the direction and determine whether the dollar can extend the rally. There has been a clear divergence in activity surveys between the US and eurozone as of late which has underpinned the wide USD:EUR rate differential. Expectations for S&P Global PMIs in the US are for another strong composite read around 54.” We don’t think there is much value in overthinking dollar strength at this stage, DXY looks more likely to consolidate above 107.0 rather than correcting lower in the short term.

11:51 USD/JPY: Bias for downside play – OCBC
USD/JPY fell overnight as the pair traded sideways this week.

USD/JPY fell overnight as the pair traded sideways this week. Pair was last at 154.30 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is turning mild bearish “Geopolitical concerns, Ueda’s comments/ market positioning were some of the factors driving 2-way moves in USDJPY this week. Daily momentum is turning mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 153.80 (21DMA), 153.30 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low) and 152 (200 DMA). Resistance at 155.70, 156.60 (76.4% fibo).” “We still look for USD/JPY to trend lower, premised on Fed cut cycle while the BoJ has room to further pursue policy normalisation. On the data front Japan core core CPI rose this morning, alongside services PMI, reinforcing our view that BoJ should proceed with another hike next month. Divergence in Fed-BoJ policies should bring about further narrowing of UST-JGB yield differentials and this should underpin the broader direction of travel for USD/JPY to the downside.” “Elsewhere, escalation in geopolitical tensions may also support safe-haven demand (positive JPY). That said, any slowdown in pace of policy normalisation - be it the Fed or BoJ - would mean that USD/JPY’s direction of travel may be bumpy or face intermittent upward pressure.”

11:45 EUR/USD sinks to near two-year lows as preliminary Eurozone PMI contracts
EUR/USD sinks to near two-year lows below 1.0400 in European trading hours on Friday after the release of the preliminary HCOB Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for November, which showed that the overall business activity surprisingly contracted.

11:38 UK S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI declines to 49.9 in November vs. 51.8 expected
Business activity in the UK private sector contracted in early November, with the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 49.9 from 51.8 in October.

Business activity in the UK private sector contracted slightly in early November.GBP/USD trades at its weakest level since May below 1.2550.Business activity in the UK private sector contracted in early November, with the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 49.9 from 51.8 in October. This reading came in below the market expectation of 51.8. In the same period, the Manufacturing PMI slumped to 48.6 from 49.9, showing an acceleration in the contraction rate of the manufacturing sector's economic activity. Additionally, the Services PMI declined to 50 from 52. Assessing the survey's findings, "Businesses have reported falling output for the first time in just over a year while employment has now been cut for two consecutive months," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said and added: "Although only marginal, the downturns in output and hiring represent marked contrasts to the robust growth rates seen back in the summer and are accompanied by deepening concern about prospects for the year ahead." Market reaction GBP/USD stays on the back foot following the PMI report and was last seen losing 0.5% on the day at 1.2528.

11:31 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (49.9) in November
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (49.9) in November

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (52.1) in November: Actual (50)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (52.1) in November: Actual (50)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 48.6, below expectations (52.1) in November
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 48.6, below expectations (52.1) in November

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 50 below forecasts (52.1) in November
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 50 below forecasts (52.1) in November

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below forecasts (51.8) in November: Actual (49.9)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below forecasts (51.8) in November: Actual (49.9)

11:29 EUR/USD: The level to monitor is 1.0400– UOB Group
The Euro (EUR) could break the significant support at 1.0450; the next technical target at 1.0400 is likely out of reach for the time being.

The Euro (EUR) could break the significant support at 1.0450; the next technical target at 1.0400 is likely out of reach for the time being. In the longer run, EUR weakness has resumed; the levels to monitor are 1.0450 and 1.0400, UOB Group’s FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. EUR weakness has resumed 24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for EUR to trade in a range yesterday was incorrect, as it plummeted to a low of 1.0461, closing on a weak note at 1.0473 (- 0.66%). The strong momentum is likely to outweigh the oversold conditions. Today, EUR could break the significant support at 1.0450. The next technical target at 1.0400 is likely out of reach for the time being. On the upside, any recovery is expected to remain below 1.0530, with minor resistance at 1.0505.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (20 Nov, spot at 1.0590), we indicated that ‘the weakness in EUR has stabilised.’ We expected EUR to ‘consolidate between 1.0520 and 1.0685.’ After EUR dropped to a low of 1.0507, we pointed out yesterday (20 Nov, spot at 1.0545) that ‘the recent downtrend is likely to resume if it breaks and stays below 1.0490.’ We did not anticipate EUR to break below 1.0490 as quickly, as it plummeted to 1.0461. To look at it another way, the recent EUR weakness has resumed earlier than expected. The levels to monitor are 1.0450 and 1.0400. We will maintain our view provided that 1.0560 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.0600 yesterday) is not breached.”

11:18 Mexican Peso consolidates ahead of GDP, inflation data
The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades mild and mixed in its most-traded pairs as the week draws to a close, with idiosyncratic factors impacting each one – the US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR) and Pound Sterling (GBP) – differently.

The Mexican Peso consolidates ahead of the publication of key economic data for Mexico. The MXN faces headwinds from slowing growth, central bank dovishness and US politics. Technically, USD/MXN is unfolding an up leg within a range that is part of a larger Measured Move pattern.The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades mild and mixed in its most-traded pairs as the week draws to a close, with idiosyncratic factors impacting each one – the US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR) and Pound Sterling (GBP) – differently. This may change later on Friday, when Mexico releases Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q3 and mid-month inflation readings for November. The Peso faces headwinds overall. These include recent weak Retail Sales data – albeit for September sales increased 0.1% on month – and comments from Governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, who said she expects more cuts to interest rates (thereby reducing foreign capital inflows). In addition, policies from US President-elect Donald Trump also weigh, particularly the threat of tariffs and the possibility of a mass repatriation of Mexican immigrants whose remittances pump regular demand for MXN. The Mexican Peso weakens against the US Dollar The Mexican Peso has depreciated overall this week versus the US Dollar (USD) as higher US inflation expectations, the anticipation of the Trump government implementing Dollar-positive policies in January and a stronger US labor market, all conspire to underpin the USD. Economists believe these factors taken together will lead to a shallower downward trajectory for US interest rates, which, in turn, is likely to keep the Greenback supported, since higher interest rates attract more foreign capital inflows. Market gauges of the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) (0.25%) at their December meeting stand at 56%, with the chances of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at 44%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This is slightly lower than the probability on Thursday. It probably reflects the more robust Initial Jobless Claims data released on the day, which showed a lower-than-expected 213,000 people claimed unemployment benefits in the US in the week ending November 15, compared to the 220,000 expected. The USD is also gaining strength from safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions ratchet up between Russia and NATO following the news that Russia might have used a long-range ballistic missile to bomb the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The move may have been a counter-punch to Ukraine using UK Storm Shadow missiles to attack targets in Russia after the US gave Kyiv the green light to deploy its own ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. The Mexican Peso strengthens versus Euro, matches GBP The Mexican Peso is overall appreciating against the Euro (EUR), which is falling after several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers said that interest rates in Europe needed to be slashed more rapidly in order to counteract stalling economic growth. Europe’s economic engine, Germany, has been flashing warning signs for some time – both economically and politically – and its latest Q3 GDP growth data missed expectations, showing the Eurozone’s largest economy grew by a meager 0.1%, less than previously estimated The Mexican Peso versus the Pound Sterling (GBP) has traded range-bound since August on the back of expectations UK interest rates will remain relatively stable – and high at 4.75% – compared to most other major economies, thus supporting the Sterling. This comes on the back of an improved outlook for UK economic growth. However, GBP is falling against the MXN today after the release of weak UK Retail Sales data, which widely undershot expectations and previous readings. Sheinbaum argues INAI reform was necessary The Mexican Peso has been dogged by the controversial reform agenda of the new Morena-led government led by President Claudia Sheinbaum. Indeed, this was one of the factors stated by Moody’s Ratings as the reason for its recent downgrade of Mexico’s credit rating from Baa2 “Stable” to “Negative”. On Wednesday, the Mexican congress passed more contentious reforms, this time to scrap or replace five of Mexico’s independent regulatory bodies, according to El Financiero. One of the most controversial bodies to be dissolved was The National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information, and Data Protection (INAI), which, according to Human Rights Watch “has the authority to require government agencies, political parties, labor unions, or other public bodies to comply with freedom of information requests from individuals or organizations.” INAI also gives Mexican citizens the right to safeguard their personal data. In a press conference on Thursday, Claudia Sheinbaum was asked about the controversial move. “Those who defend INAI to the hilt forgot about the corruption,” she said. According to Mexico News Daily, “The president proceeded to cite examples of corruption and nepotism within INAI that were uncovered by the Federal Auditor’s Office (ASF).” Sheinbaum said high-ranking INAI managers asked for bribes of between 10%-60% of candidates’ salaries to get them jobs in the agency, and INAI was subject to widespread nepotism. The role of the INAI would be taken over by the Ministry of Anti-Corruption and Good Governance, the President said. “There will be more transparency … [and] there won’t be corruption. … Personal data will be protected,” Sheinbaum added. Technical Analysis: USD/MXN extends wave “C” higher USD/MXN appears to be unfolding a wave “C” higher (see chart below) as it completes a Measured Move pattern. These patterns are composed of three waves, in which the first and the third are of a similar length. USD/MXN 4-hour Chart USD/MXN looks range bound in the short term as it oscillates between the 19.70s and 20.80s. The extension of wave C corresponds to an up leg unfolding within this sideways consolidation towards its ceiling (green dashed line). The (blue) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator crossed above its red signal line on Wednesday and is now also above the zero line, adding supporting evidence the pair could unfold higher. A break above the 20.40 November 21 high would confirm wave C extending to at least the same level as the top of wave A at 20.69, possibly even to 20.80 and the range ceiling.

11:07 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI falls to 48.1 in November vs. 50 expected
Business activity in the Eurozone private sector contracted in early November, with the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 48.1 from 50 in October.

Business activity in the Eurozone private sector contracted in early November.EUR/USD trades at its weakest level in nearly two years below 1.0450.Business activity in the Eurozone private sector contracted in early November, with the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 48.1 from 50 in October. This reading came in below the market expectation of 50. In the same period, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI edged lower to 45.2 from 46, while the Services PMI dropped into the contraction territory at 49.2 from 51.6. Assessing the report's findings, "the Eurozone's manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to struggle after two months of marginal growth," noted Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "It is no surprise really, given the political mess in the biggest Eurozone economies lately – France's government is on shaky ground, and Germany's heading for early elections. Throw in the election of Donald Trump as US president, and it is no wonder the economy is facing challenges. Businesses are just navigating by sight." Market reaction The Euro came under renewed selling pressure after this report. At the time of press, EUR/USD was trading at its weakest level in nearly two years below 1.0450.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in November: Actual (45.2)
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in November: Actual (45.2)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.8) in November
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.8) in November

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50) in November: Actual (48.1)
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50) in November: Actual (48.1)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs set to signal US economy continued to expand in November
S&P Global will publish the preliminary estimates of the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for November on Friday.

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(min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The S&P Global preliminary PMIs for November are likely to show little variation from the October final readings.Markets are undecided on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the policy rate again in December. EUR/USD remains technically bearish ahead of the PMI data. S&P Global will publish the preliminary estimates of the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for November on Friday. The indexes result from surveys of the senior executives in the private sector. They are meant to indicate the overall health of the economy, providing insights into key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. S&P Global releases three indexes: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI the Composite PMI, which is a weighted average of the two sectors. Readings above 50 indicate that economic activity in the private sector is expanding, while figures below 50 represent contraction. These indexes are released every month in advance of other official figures, becoming a key leading indicator of the status of the economy. In October, the S&P Global Composite PMI arrived at 54.1, suggesting that the private sector continued to grow at a healthy pace. “October’s flash US PMI survey signaled a further solid rise in business activity to mark a robust start to the fourth quarter,” S&P Global said in the press release. “Growth was driven solely by the service sector, however, as manufacturing output contracted for a third month running. Meanwhile, employment fell slightly for a third successive month amid uncertainty ahead of the presidential election." What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report? Investors foresee the flash Manufacturing PMI improving slightly to 48.8 in November from 48.5 and expect the Services PMI to edge higher to 55.3 from 55. A poor performance of the manufacturing sector would come as no surprise, and the expected uptick would likely neutralize concerns, particularly if the Services PMI keeps indicating a solid expansion in the sector. Market participants will scrutinize comments about inflation and employment in the surveys. Following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks about further policy easing, markets dialed down expectations for another rate reduction in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points cut at the last policy meeting of the year currently stands at about 55%, down from above70% early last week. Powell argued that they don't need to be in a hurry to lower interest rates, citing ongoing economic growth, a solid job market and inflation that remains above the 2% target. "If data let us go slower, that's a smart thing to do," he added. In case the Services PMI unexpectedly comes in below 50, the immediate reaction is likely to trigger a US Dollar (USD) selloff. On the other hand, the USD could gather strength against its rivals if the Services PMI remains near the market consensus and the Manufacturing PMI rises into the expansion territory above 50. Investors could see a stronger chance for a Fed policy hold in December if PMI surveys highlight rising input inflation in the service sector, alongside favorable conditions in the labor market. Conversely, softer price pressures and a lack of growth in private sector payrolls could revive optimism about further policy easing and weigh on the USD. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar. When will the October flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD? The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs report will be released on Friday at 14:45 GMT and is expected to show manufacturing output is still in trouble while the service sector remains the strongest. Ahead of the release, Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief technical overview of EUR/USD: “The near-term technical outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays well below 40, while holding slightly above 30, suggesting that the pair has more room on the downside before turning technically oversold.” “If EUR/USD closes the week below 1.0500 (round level) and confirms that level as resistance, technical sellers could remain interested. In this case, 1.0450 (October 2023 low) could be seen as the next support before 1.0350 (May 2022 low). Looking north, first resistance could be spotted at 1.0600 (static level, round level) before the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0700.” Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Fri Nov 22, 2024 14:45 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: -Previous: 54.1Source: S&P Global

10:37 Germany HCOB Composite PMI drops to 47.3 in November vs. 48.6 expected
Business activity in Germany's private sector contracted at an accelerating pace in early November, with the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 47.3 from 48.6 in October.

HCOB Composite PMI in Germany declined in November's flash estimate.EUR/USD trades in daily range below 1.0500 after the data.Business activity in Germany's private sector contracted at an accelerating pace in early November, with the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 47.3 from 48.6 in October. This reading came in below the market expectation of 48.6. In the same period, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI edged slightly higher to 43.2 from 43, while the Services PMI declined to 49.4 from 51.6. Commenting on the survey's findings, "overall, business activity in Germany has decreased for the fifth month in a row. The political uncertainty, which has increased since Donald Trump's election as US president and the announcement of snap elections in Germany on February 23, isn't helping," said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "However, the modest increase in the future output index might reflect some hope that the next German government will manage to turn the economy around with bold measures, for example by reforming the debt break." Market reactionEUR/USD showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day at 1.0475.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.7) in November: Actual (49.4)
Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.7) in November: Actual (49.4)

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (48.6) in November: Actual (47.3)
Germany HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (48.6) in November: Actual (47.3)

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 43.2 above expectations (43) in November
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 43.2 above expectations (43) in November

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 45.7, below expectations (49) in November
France HCOB Services PMI came in at 45.7, below expectations (49) in November

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 44.8, below expectations (48.1) in November
France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 44.8, below expectations (48.1) in November

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (44.5) in November: Actual (43.2)
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (44.5) in November: Actual (43.2)

09:52 Pound Sterling weakens as UK Retail Sales contract at faster-than-expected pace
The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against a majority of its peers, except Asia-Pacific currencies, as the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for October contracted at a faster-than-expected pace.

09:28 NZD/USD drops to near 0.5800 due to the dovish mood surrounding the RBNZ policy outlook
NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5830 during the European hours on Friday.

09:17 EUR/GBP gathers strength above 0.8300 after downbeat UK Retail Sales data
The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to near 0.8330 during the early European session on Friday.

09:15 GBP/JPY holds ground near 194.50 following disappointing UK Retail Sales, PMI awaited
GBP/JPY remains steady around 194.50 during the early European hours, following the lower-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures for October released on Friday.

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Traders now focus on S&P Global UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures due later in the day. UK Retail Sales dropped by 0.7% month-over-month in October, significantly exceeding the expected 0.3% decline and reversing the previous 0.1% increase. On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew by 2.4%, falling short of the anticipated 3.4% rise and the prior reading of 3.2%. The GBP/JPY cross faced challenges during the Asian session as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained ground following insights from a Reuters survey on expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ). According to the survey, 56% of economists anticipate the BoJ will raise interest rates at its December meeting, driven by the JPY’s depreciation and improving economic conditions. Additionally, Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to address Yen's impact on economic and price stability, suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes. Additionally, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration is considering a $90 billion stimulus package aimed at alleviating the burden of rising prices on households. Recent data indicated that Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to a nine-month low of 2.3% year-over-year in October. Similarly, the annual core CPI, which excludes fresh food, also dropped to 2.3%, a six-month low, slightly above the forecast of 2.2%. Additionally, the Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 50.2 in November, up from 49.7 in October, which had marked the lowest level in four months. However, the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since March, down from 49.2 in October, missing market expectations of 49.5. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Nov 22, 2024 07:00 Frequency: MonthlyActual: -0.7%Consensus: -0.3%Previous: 0.3%Source: Office for National Statistics

09:06 UK Retail Sales decline 0.7% on a monthly basis in October vs. -0.3% expected
The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday that Retail Sales declined 0.7% on a monthly basis in October.

Retail Sales in the UK declined at a faster pace than expected in October.GBP/USD trades at fresh multi-month lows near 1.2550 after the data.The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday that Retail Sales declined 0.7% on a monthly basis in October. This reading followed the 0.1% increase recorded in September and came in worse than the market expectation for a decline of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales rose 2.4%, compared to the market expectation of 3.4%. In the same period, Retail Sales ex-Fuel fell 0.9% on a monthly basis, while increasing 2% annually. Market reaction GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure following these figures and was last seen trading at its lowest level since May near 1.2550, losing 0.3% on the day.

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 2%, below expectations (3.3%) in October
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 2%, below expectations (3.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) dipped from previous 0.2% to 0.1% in 3Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) dipped from previous 0.2% to 0.1% in 3Q

09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q

09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (-0.2%) in 3Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (-0.2%) in 3Q

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -0.9% below forecasts (-0.4%) in October
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -0.9% below forecasts (-0.4%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.3%) in October: Actual (-0.7%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.3%) in October: Actual (-0.7%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (3.4%) in October
United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (3.4%) in October

08:50 Forex Today: US Dollar climbs higher as focus shifts to PMI data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 22: Following a quiet European session, the US Dollar (USD) regathered its strength in the second half of the day on Thursday and continued to push higher early Friday, reaching its highest level since October 2023 above 107.00.

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S&P Global will release preliminary November Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for Germany, the Eurozone and the UK. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.68% 0.39% 0.46% -0.76% -0.51% 0.55% -0.10% EUR -0.68% -0.12% -0.11% -1.32% -1.03% -0.02% -0.67% GBP -0.39% 0.12% 0.04% -1.20% -0.92% 0.11% -0.55% JPY -0.46% 0.11% -0.04% -1.23% -0.90% 0.14% -0.50% CAD 0.76% 1.32% 1.20% 1.23% 0.28% 1.32% 0.66% AUD 0.51% 1.03% 0.92% 0.90% -0.28% 1.03% 0.37% NZD -0.55% 0.02% -0.11% -0.14% -1.32% -1.03% -0.65% CHF 0.10% 0.67% 0.55% 0.50% -0.66% -0.37% 0.65% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The data from the US showed on Thursday that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 213,000 from 219,000. In the meantime, Existing Home Sales increased by 3.4% on a monthly basis in October. In addition to these upbeat data releases, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials further supported the USD during the American trading hours. In the European morning on Friday, US stock index futures trade marginally lower, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady at around 4.4%. In the Asian session on Friday, Statistics Bureau of Japan announced that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a yearly basis in October, down from 2.5% in September. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Japan is preparing a fresh stimulus package valued at 13.9 trillion yen ($89.7 billion), aiming to mitigate the financial strain on households caused by rising prices. After losing more than 0.5% on Thursday, USD/JPY edges higher early Friday and was last seen trading near 155.00.EUR/USD turned south in the American session on Thursday and broke below 1.0500. The pair struggles to stage a rebound early Friday and trades at around 1.0470.GBP/USD lost 0.5% on Thursday and extended its slide during the Asian trading hours on Friday. At the time of press, the pair was trading at its weakest level since May below 1.2600. The data from Australia showed that the Judo Bank Composite PMI declined to 49.4 in November's flash estimate from 50.2 in October. AUD/USD came under modest bearish pressure after this data and was last seen trading slightly below 0.6500, where it was down 0.3% on the day.Gold extended its weekly rally and closed the fourth consecutive day in positive territory on Thursday. XAU/USD preserves its bullish momentum in the European morning on Friday and continues to advance toward $2,700. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

08:07 AUD/JPY falls below 100.50 as the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike next month revives
AUD/JPY continues its decline, nearing 100.30 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

07:38 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand while above mid-1.3900s pivotal support
The USD/CAD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the 1.4000 psychological mark amid mixed cues.

07:32 USD/CHF weakens to near 0.8850 ahead of US PMI data
The USD/CHF pair trades with mild losses around 0.8860 during the early European session on Friday.

07:03 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 57.5 to 57.3 in November
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 57.5 to 57.3 in November

07:03 India HSBC Services PMI increased to 59.2 in November from previous 58.5
India HSBC Services PMI increased to 59.2 in November from previous 58.5

07:02 India HSBC Services PMI fell from previous 58.5 to 57.3 in November
India HSBC Services PMI fell from previous 58.5 to 57.3 in November

07:02 India HSBC Composite PMI up to 59.5 in November from previous 59.1
India HSBC Composite PMI up to 59.5 in November from previous 59.1

06:44 EUR/USD depreciates to yearly lows near 1.0450, awaits PMIs from both nations
EUR/USD remains on a downward trend for the third consecutive session, hovering around 1.0470 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

06:37 EUR/JPY bounces off multi-month low, down a little around 161.70 ahead of Eurozone PMIs
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day and drops to its lowest level since October 4 during the Asian session on Friday, albeit it managed to rebound a few pips thereafter.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 7,293.89 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 7,257.32 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold increased to INR 85,074.45 per tola from INR 84,647.97 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 7,293.89 10 Grams 72,941.27 Tola 85,074.45 Troy Ounce 226,865.30 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold price advances to near two-week high, eyes $2,700 on geopolitical tensions Gold prices defies strong US Dollar, surges on haven demand Gold price weekly uptrend remains uninterrupted despite positive risk toneGold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:12 Gold price advances to near two-week high, eyes $2,700 on geopolitical tensions
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs its uptrend for the fifth consecutive day on Friday and climbs to a nearly two-week top, around the $2,690-2,691 area during the Asian session.

06:05 GBP/USD falls to six-month lows near 1.2550 ahead of PMI figures from both economies
GBP/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.2580 during the Asian hours on Friday.

05:19 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces back to near $31.00 due to safe-haven flows
Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses, trading around $31.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

05:18 USD/INR holds steady ahead of Indian PMI release
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat on Friday after hitting an all-time low of 84.50 against the US Dollar (USD) in the previous session.

04:29 Australian Dollar extends gains despite mixed PMI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of mixed Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Australia on Friday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains solid as the PMI indicates a mixed economic picture.Judo Bank Australian manufacturing activity improved in November but remained in contraction, while services activity slipped into negative territory.The US Dollar Index reached its fresh yearly high of 107.15 after the US Initial Jobless Claims released on Thursday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of mixed Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Australia on Friday. The AUD also benefits from a hawkish outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding future interest rate decisions. The Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in November from 47.3 in October, marking its 10th consecutive month of contraction, though the decline slowed to its weakest pace in six months. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 49.6 from 51.0, signaling the first contraction in services activity in ten months.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of major currencies, trades near 107.00, just below its fresh yearly high of 107.15 recorded on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthened after the release of the previous week's Initial Jobless Claims data. Futures traders now assign a 57.8% probability to the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter point, a decrease from approximately 72.2% last week, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar appreciates due to hawkish RBA Traders await the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment report scheduled to be released on Friday. The Judo Bank PMI Composite Output Index dropped to 49.4 in November from 50.2 in October, indicating a modest contraction in private sector output for the second time in three months. US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 213,000 for the week ending November 15, down from a revised 219,000 (previously 217,000) in the prior week and below the expected 220,000. The US Dollar gained ground due to the cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Additionally, market expectations suggest that the incoming Donald Trump administration will spur inflation, thereby slowing the rate cut trajectory from the Fed, lending support to the Greenback. A Reuters poll indicated that nearly 90% of economists (94 out of 106) anticipate a 25bps cut in December, lowering the fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. Economists predict shallower rate cuts in 2025 due to the risk of higher inflation from President-elect Trump's policies. The fed funds rate is forecasted to be 3.50%-3.75% by the end of 2025, which is 50bps higher than last month’s projection. The Reserve Bank of Australia's November Meeting Minutes indicated that the central bank’s board remains vigilant about the potential for further inflation, stressing the importance of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy. Although board members noted no "immediate need" to alter the cash rate, they kept options open for future adjustments, emphasizing that all possibilities remain on the table. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stated on Wednesday that while more interest rate cuts are necessary, policymakers should proceed cautiously to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted that inflation remained elevated over the past few months and stressed the need for the Fed to proceed cautiously with rate cuts. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that "tumbling iron ore prices and a softening labor market have impacted government revenue," following his Ministerial Statement on the economy on Wednesday. Chalmers outlined Australia's tough fiscal outlook, citing the weakening of China, a key trading partner, and the slowdown in the job market as contributing factors. Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts, highlighting the economy's resilience, robust labor market, and persistent inflationary pressures. Powell remarked, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to hurry to lower rates." Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar tests nine-day EMA above 0.6500 AUD/USD hovers near 0.6510 on Friday, with technical analysis of the daily chart pointing to a bearish outlook. The pair remains within a descending channel, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below 50, reinforcing the negative sentiment. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may target the lower boundary of the descending channel at 0.6360, followed by its yearly low of 0.6348, which reached August 5. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair faces resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6518 and the 14-day EMA of 0.6533. A break above these levels could diminish the bearish bias and pave the way for a rally toward the four-week high of 0.6687. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% 0.09% -0.05% 0.03% -0.02% 0.36% -0.01% EUR -0.09% -0.00% -0.11% -0.05% -0.10% 0.27% -0.10% GBP -0.09% 0.00% -0.10% -0.05% -0.10% 0.25% -0.10% JPY 0.05% 0.11% 0.10% 0.08% 0.03% 0.39% 0.04% CAD -0.03% 0.05% 0.05% -0.08% -0.06% 0.32% -0.05% AUD 0.02% 0.10% 0.10% -0.03% 0.06% 0.38% 0.00% NZD -0.36% -0.27% -0.25% -0.39% -0.32% -0.38% -0.37% CHF 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% -0.04% 0.05% -0.00% 0.37% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Judo Bank Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Judo Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Thu Nov 21, 2024 22:00 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyActual: 49.4Consensus: -Previous: 50.2Source: S&P Global

04:27 Japanese Yen fails to build on stronger CPI-led intraday uptick against USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracted some follow-through buying for the second successive day following the release of slightly higher-than-expected consumer inflation figures from Japan.

03:39 WTI recovers above $70.00 as Russia-Ukraine war escalates
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.25 on Friday.

03:18 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1942 vs. 7.1934 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1942, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1934 and 7.2502 Reuters estimates.

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1942, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1934 and 7.2502 Reuters estimates.

02:52 Japan PM Ishiba prepares $90 billion stimulus package to boost economy further
Japan is preparing a fresh stimulus package valued at 13.9 trillion yen ($89.7 billion), aiming to mitigate the financial strain on households caused by rising prices, per Reuters.

02:36 NZD/USD extends downside to near 0.5850 on stronger US Dollar, dovish RBNZ expectations
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 0.5855 during the early Asian session on Friday.

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.2 (November) vs 49.7
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.2 (November) vs 49.7

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.5) in November: Actual (49)
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.5) in November: Actual (49)

02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -18, above expectations (-22) in November
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -18, above expectations (-22) in November

01:41 Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) up to 2.3% in October from previous 2.1%
Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) up to 2.3% in October from previous 2.1%

01:37 EUR/USD backslides on Thursday, tests new multi-month low
EUR/USD trimmed further into the low end on Thursday, continuing to shed weight in the near-term and falling to the lowest bids since November of 2023.

01:34 Japan’s National CPI rises 2.3% YoY in October, Core CPI rises more than expected
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% YoY in October, compared to the previous reading of 2.5%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday, Further details unveil that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 2.3% YoY in October versus 2.4% prior.

01:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.3% (October) vs previous 2.5%
Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.3% (October) vs previous 2.5%

01:30 Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 2.3%, above expectations (2.2%) in October
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 2.3%, above expectations (2.2%) in October

01:20 Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI improves to 49.4 in November, Services PMI eases to 49.6
The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 49.4 in November from 47.3 in October, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Friday.

01:15 USD/CAD holds positive ground above 1.3950 on bullish US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3975 during the early Asian session on Friday.

01:00 GBP/USD finds fresh six-month low on Thursday
GBP/USD shed another four-tenths of a percent on Thursday, tapping the pair’s lowest bids in six months as the Pound Sterling’s underlying weakness drags the pair further into the low end against the Greenback.

00:05 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 (November) vs 47.3
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 (November) vs 47.3

00:04 Canadian Dollar struggles to hold onto gains
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) drove into near-term highs early on Thursday before running out of gas and settling close to the day’s opening bids.

00:01 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI declined to 49.6 in November from previous 51
Australia Judo Bank Services PMI declined to 49.6 in November from previous 51

00:01 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI dipped from previous 50.2 to 49.4 in November
Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI dipped from previous 50.2 to 49.4 in November

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Forex News Timeline

14:43 EUR/JPY Price Prediction: November bear trend unfolds EUR/JPY staircases down from its Halloween peak as it unfolds in a short-term downtrend during November.

14:42 EUR/USD: EUR slumps on weak PMI data – Scotibank The Euro (EUR) plunged in response to poor macro data reports earlier.

14:39 USD/CAD: CAD softer but outperforms most peers – Scotiabank USD/CAD got caught in the crossfire of the hefty US Dollar (USD) advance against the European currencies earlier, rising quickly from the mid/upper 1.39s to an intraday high near 1.4020.

14:07 The recovery rally in the Gold market is likely to take a breather – Commerzbank The Gold price has also recovered more than half of its losses since the end of October and is once again trading at $2,700 per troy ounce, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

14:01 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.04% below forecasts (0.17%) in November Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.04% below forecasts (0.17%) in November

14:01 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (1%) in 3Q Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (1%) in 3Q

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation above forecasts (0.17%) in November: Actual (0.23%) Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation above forecasts (0.17%) in November: Actual (0.23%)

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.37%, below expectations (0.49%) in November Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.37%, below expectations (0.49%) in November

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (1.5%) in 3Q: Actual (1.6%) Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (1.5%) in 3Q: Actual (1.6%)

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.43% below forecasts (0.49%) in November Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.43% below forecasts (0.49%) in November

13:59 Swiss Gold exports reflect weak demand for Gold in Asia – Commerzbank The Swiss Federal Customs Authority published data on Gold exports in October this week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

13:56 Concerns about supply disruptions cause oil prices to rise – Commerzbank Oil prices have risen noticeably over the past few days. Brent climbed to $74.8 per barrel in the morning, gaining almost 5% since the beginning of the week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

13:50 USD/CNH: The major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach – UOB Group The US Dollar (USD) could to rise to 7.2630; the major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach.

13:46 TRY: Unexpectedly dovish – Commerzbank The Turkish central bank (CBT) held rates unchanged yesterday, as had been unanimously expected, but turned somewhat dovish in its language, contrary to our expectation.

13:46 JPY: The price of rice – Commerzbank The statistics on Japanese inflation have a peculiarity. In most countries, the categories of food and energy are excluded when calculating core inflation.

13:42 USD/JPY: Decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 153.30 – UOB Group Bias for the US Dollar (USD) is tilted to the downside; any decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 153.30.

13:33 RUB: US sanctions more systemic banks – Commerzbank US OFAC announced additional sanctions on Russia yesterday, including on systemic banks which had hitherto been exempt because of the energy trade.

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD: $657.89B (November 11) vs previous $675.65B India FX Reserves, USD: $657.89B (November 11) vs previous $675.65B

13:29 AUD/USD bounces back to near 0.6500 as USD gives up majority of gains The AUD/USD pair recovers more than half of its intraday losses and rebounds to near the psychological figure of 0.6500 in Friday’s European session.

13:24 NZD/USD: Likely to edge lower – UOB Group The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure; it is likely to edge lower, possibly testing 0.5835 before the risk of a rebound increases.

13:09 USD/SGD: 2-way trades – OCBC USD/SGD rebounded as markets continue to trade 2-way, caught between the forces of heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties associated with Trump presidency.

12:37 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD aims to stabilize above $31 amid firm safe-haven bid Silver price (XAG/USD) strives to establish above $31.00 in Friday’s European session.

12:29 AUD/USD: To trade in a range of 0.6490/0.6535 – UOB Group The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range of 0.6490/0.6535.

12:23 Gold rallies back above $2,700 on inflaming Russia-Ukraine tensions Gold (XAU/USD) rallies for the fifth day in a row, making it a clean-sweep of green daily candlesticks for the week so far.

12:15 DXY: Prelim PMIs on tap today – OCBC The US Dollar (USD) remains better bid overnight. DXY was last above 107, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:13 GBP/USD: the next significant support at 1.2490 is out of reach – UOB Group A break of 1.2565 will not be surprising; the next significant support at 1.2490 is not expected to come into view for now.

11:59 USD: Moderately hawkish remarks from Williams – ING Yesterday’s US Dollar (USD) rally led to a break below the key psychological 1.05 EUR/USD support and an exploration above 107.0 in DXY.

11:51 USD/JPY: Bias for downside play – OCBC USD/JPY fell overnight as the pair traded sideways this week.

11:38 UK S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI declines to 49.9 in November vs. 51.8 expected Business activity in the UK private sector contracted in early November, with the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 49.9 from 51.8 in October.

11:31 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (49.9) in November United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (49.9) in November

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (52.1) in November: Actual (50) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (52.1) in November: Actual (50)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 48.6, below expectations (52.1) in November United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 48.6, below expectations (52.1) in November

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 50 below forecasts (52.1) in November United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 50 below forecasts (52.1) in November

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below forecasts (51.8) in November: Actual (49.9) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below forecasts (51.8) in November: Actual (49.9)

11:29 EUR/USD: The level to monitor is 1.0400– UOB Group The Euro (EUR) could break the significant support at 1.0450; the next technical target at 1.0400 is likely out of reach for the time being.

11:18 Mexican Peso consolidates ahead of GDP, inflation data The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades mild and mixed in its most-traded pairs as the week draws to a close, with idiosyncratic factors impacting each one – the US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR) and Pound Sterling (GBP) – differently.

11:07 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI falls to 48.1 in November vs. 50 expected Business activity in the Eurozone private sector contracted in early November, with the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 48.1 from 50 in October.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in November: Actual (45.2) Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in November: Actual (45.2)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.8) in November Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.8) in November

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50) in November: Actual (48.1) Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50) in November: Actual (48.1)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs set to signal US economy continued to expand in November S&P Global will publish the preliminary estimates of the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for November on Friday.

10:37 Germany HCOB Composite PMI drops to 47.3 in November vs. 48.6 expected Business activity in Germany's private sector contracted at an accelerating pace in early November, with the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 47.3 from 48.6 in October.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.7) in November: Actual (49.4) Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.7) in November: Actual (49.4)

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (48.6) in November: Actual (47.3) Germany HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (48.6) in November: Actual (47.3)

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 43.2 above expectations (43) in November Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 43.2 above expectations (43) in November

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 45.7, below expectations (49) in November France HCOB Services PMI came in at 45.7, below expectations (49) in November

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 44.8, below expectations (48.1) in November France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 44.8, below expectations (48.1) in November

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (44.5) in November: Actual (43.2) France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (44.5) in November: Actual (43.2)

09:52 Pound Sterling weakens as UK Retail Sales contract at faster-than-expected pace The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against a majority of its peers, except Asia-Pacific currencies, as the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for October contracted at a faster-than-expected pace.

09:28 NZD/USD drops to near 0.5800 due to the dovish mood surrounding the RBNZ policy outlook NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5830 during the European hours on Friday.

09:17 EUR/GBP gathers strength above 0.8300 after downbeat UK Retail Sales data The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to near 0.8330 during the early European session on Friday.

09:15 GBP/JPY holds ground near 194.50 following disappointing UK Retail Sales, PMI awaited GBP/JPY remains steady around 194.50 during the early European hours, following the lower-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures for October released on Friday.

09:06 UK Retail Sales decline 0.7% on a monthly basis in October vs. -0.3% expected The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday that Retail Sales declined 0.7% on a monthly basis in October.

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 2%, below expectations (3.3%) in October United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 2%, below expectations (3.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) dipped from previous 0.2% to 0.1% in 3Q Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) dipped from previous 0.2% to 0.1% in 3Q

09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q

09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (-0.2%) in 3Q Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (-0.2%) in 3Q

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -0.9% below forecasts (-0.4%) in October United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -0.9% below forecasts (-0.4%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.3%) in October: Actual (-0.7%) United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.3%) in October: Actual (-0.7%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (3.4%) in October United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (3.4%) in October

08:07 AUD/JPY falls below 100.50 as the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike next month revives AUD/JPY continues its decline, nearing 100.30 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

07:38 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand while above mid-1.3900s pivotal support The USD/CAD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the 1.4000 psychological mark amid mixed cues.

07:32 USD/CHF weakens to near 0.8850 ahead of US PMI data The USD/CHF pair trades with mild losses around 0.8860 during the early European session on Friday.

07:03 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 57.5 to 57.3 in November India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 57.5 to 57.3 in November

07:03 India HSBC Services PMI increased to 59.2 in November from previous 58.5 India HSBC Services PMI increased to 59.2 in November from previous 58.5

07:02 India HSBC Services PMI fell from previous 58.5 to 57.3 in November India HSBC Services PMI fell from previous 58.5 to 57.3 in November

07:02 India HSBC Composite PMI up to 59.5 in November from previous 59.1 India HSBC Composite PMI up to 59.5 in November from previous 59.1

06:44 EUR/USD depreciates to yearly lows near 1.0450, awaits PMIs from both nations EUR/USD remains on a downward trend for the third consecutive session, hovering around 1.0470 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:12 Gold price advances to near two-week high, eyes $2,700 on geopolitical tensions Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs its uptrend for the fifth consecutive day on Friday and climbs to a nearly two-week top, around the $2,690-2,691 area during the Asian session.

06:05 GBP/USD falls to six-month lows near 1.2550 ahead of PMI figures from both economies GBP/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.2580 during the Asian hours on Friday.

05:19 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces back to near $31.00 due to safe-haven flows Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses, trading around $31.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

05:18 USD/INR holds steady ahead of Indian PMI release The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat on Friday after hitting an all-time low of 84.50 against the US Dollar (USD) in the previous session.

04:29 Australian Dollar extends gains despite mixed PMI The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of mixed Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Australia on Friday.

04:27 Japanese Yen fails to build on stronger CPI-led intraday uptick against USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracted some follow-through buying for the second successive day following the release of slightly higher-than-expected consumer inflation figures from Japan.

03:39 WTI recovers above $70.00 as Russia-Ukraine war escalates West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.25 on Friday.

03:18 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1942 vs. 7.1934 previous On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1942, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1934 and 7.2502 Reuters estimates.

02:52 Japan PM Ishiba prepares $90 billion stimulus package to boost economy further Japan is preparing a fresh stimulus package valued at 13.9 trillion yen ($89.7 billion), aiming to mitigate the financial strain on households caused by rising prices, per Reuters.